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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 15402 times)

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Offline BeetleChe13

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #150 on: November 07, 2020, 11:41:44 AM »
Eta has now restrengthened to a tropical storm as forecasted and is headed to FL. I suppose it is finally our turn for a landfall this season. Expecting 4 straight days of rain here near Tampa, and the wind field is forecasted to greatly expand.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #151 on: November 08, 2020, 06:20:20 PM »
While it looks like we'll fortunately see minimal damaging impacts from ETA in the U.S. the track has to be one of the oddest I've ever seen. The forecast cone looks like somebody spilled a cup of coffee on the map.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #152 on: November 09, 2020, 07:02:33 AM »
Aaaand... NHC has a system in the central Atlantic with a 50% chance of development over 48 hours and 70% over 5 days. My instincts say this is going to wander off over open water as a fish storm rather than tracking all the way to the U.S., but as we keep saying it is 2020, so who knows. If it makes it to named storm status this one will be Theta.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #153 on: November 09, 2020, 10:15:39 AM »
Aaaand... NHC has a system in the central Atlantic with a 50% chance of development over 48 hours and 70% over 5 days. My instincts say this is going to wander off over open water as a fish storm rather than tracking all the way to the U.S., but as we keep saying it is 2020, so who knows. If it makes it to named storm status this one will be Theta.
Another in the Caribbean also. Currently in the 40-60% category. The one in the Atlantic is moving away from the US, but the potential Caribbean system bears watching. Good chance it gets picked up by a trough and pulled north.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #154 on: November 10, 2020, 07:57:52 AM »
Another in the Caribbean also. Currently in the 40-60% category. The one in the Atlantic is moving away from the US, but the potential Caribbean system bears watching. Good chance it gets picked up by a trough and pulled north.
NHC has the system in the Caribbean at 70% over 5 days now and we've officially got a named storm with Theta out in the middle of the Atlantic.

Eta for the moment has cancelled its hard right turn and is now forecast to head north into the Gulf coast by late weekend. Depending on track that might turn into a rain and/or wind-maker for Tennessee. We all know that hurricane season technically runs through November but it still seems odd to be watching two named storms with a third developing in the next few days this late into the year.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #155 on: November 10, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
GFS is pretty crazy with continuing activity in the tropics over the next 2 weeks. Several separate systems. Another gyre storm next weekend.
Say what you will about the GFS, but it was correct on this one. Tropics are still ACTIVE.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #156 on: November 11, 2020, 05:12:20 AM »
Well. Eta is now making an even harder right turn than previously forecast and will be over the open Atlantic by Saturday. The track for this one has been maddening for forecasters.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #157 on: November 15, 2020, 12:20:32 PM »
Iota is going to hit the same area perhaps to the exact 1-10 miles that Eta did, but this time Iota will dive further into Central America instead of coming back out.   

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #158 on: November 15, 2020, 09:13:02 PM »
Iota really getting its act together. A pin point eye is now visible. This is going to be a nasty hurricane for Honduras and Nicaragua.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #159 on: November 16, 2020, 07:47:32 AM »
Iota is up to a Cat 4. It's going to take a major international effort to be put Central America back together again after these back to back storms.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #160 on: November 16, 2020, 09:47:03 AM »
Iota made Cat 5; simply unbelievable this late in the season and catastrophic for everything in it's path after just going through another major storm.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #161 on: November 16, 2020, 01:06:23 PM »
Leave it to 2020, the first Atlantic hurricane season on record to register two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) in November.

Eta: Cat. 4
Iota: Cat. 5
.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #162 on: November 16, 2020, 01:09:21 PM »
TWC is tracking a disturbance behind Iota that could be Kappa later in the week, the 31st named storm of the season. If the pattern holds does that mean we see a Cat 6?  ::wow::

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #163 on: November 16, 2020, 01:45:15 PM »
Leave it to 2020, the first Atlantic hurricane season on record to register two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) in November.

Eta: Cat. 4
Iota: Cat. 5

...and, on top of that, we're deep into the Greek letters, in an already record crushing season.

Offline JayCee

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #164 on: November 21, 2020, 05:24:16 PM »
A first in my lifetime to see anything like this hurricane season (and I'm not young).  The bar keeps going higher.
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