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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 15250 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #135 on: October 20, 2020, 06:30:37 AM »
NHC now has a forecast cone out for Epsilon and it should hang a right and stay out to sea. That's good news after so many storms making landfall this year. Will this be our last named storm of the season?

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #136 on: October 20, 2020, 06:52:48 AM »
The season continues for another month until the end of November. It may slow down out in the Atlantic, but I wouldn’t rule out something still popping in the Caribbean.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #137 on: October 24, 2020, 12:16:28 PM »
The season continues for another month until the end of November. It may slow down out in the Atlantic, but I wouldn’t rule out something still popping in the Caribbean.
Guess what? 95L in the Caribbean has a 90% chance of development. Seems like yet another threat for the northern Gulf coast. Probably won’t be strong due to water temps, but it may bring more rain to our area by late next week.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #138 on: October 25, 2020, 07:33:22 AM »
Looks like Zeta is going to be a hurricane, and forecasts are starting to show heavy rain for East TN on Wednesday and Thursday.

Offline JayCee

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #139 on: October 25, 2020, 10:02:04 AM »
Since September 1st, I've recorded nearly 8.5" of rain, making it the wettest autumn here in the last 5 years.  However, nearly all of that rain was connected with tropical systems coming out of the Gulf.  Take those away, and it would've been extremely dry, similar to the trend of hot, dry autumns we've experienced as of late.  Considering the fires ravaging multiple states in the west, I'm grateful our fire season may be a non-event this year thanks to the hyper-active tropics. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #140 on: October 26, 2020, 09:12:02 PM »
GFS is pretty crazy with continuing activity in the tropics over the next 2 weeks. Several separate systems. Another gyre storm next weekend.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline JayCee

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #141 on: October 29, 2020, 11:40:30 AM »
Zeta makes the 11th tropical system (storms & hurricanes) to make landfall in the United States, shattering any previous records for such with one month to go.  IMBY I've recorded 10.02" of rain in just two months thanks entirely from the frenzied tropical season.

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #142 on: October 29, 2020, 03:18:01 PM »
Don't look now but NHC has a disturbance near the Lesser Antilles moving westward with a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. We may be watching a named tropical system in early November.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #143 on: October 29, 2020, 03:55:39 PM »
While the Cape Verde season is over at this point, this is actually climatologically the active part of the season for the Caribbean... the last month to six weeks of the Atlantic basin season. This is when you watch that area between the islands and Central America.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 03:57:56 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #144 on: October 29, 2020, 04:37:17 PM »
Don't look now but NHC has a disturbance near the Lesser Antilles moving westward with a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days. We may be watching a named tropical system in early November.
yeah. Seems like we are far from done
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #145 on: October 30, 2020, 01:18:17 PM »
The next one seems to have eyes for central America, at least for the moment. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #146 on: October 31, 2020, 01:10:35 PM »
12zgfs has another hurricane hitting the us.  this time northern florida ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #147 on: November 02, 2020, 05:04:47 PM »
Amazing if ETA survives it's trek in the mountainous terrain of Central America to threaten the U.S. with yet another strike.  It looks like a possibility, but it's a long way out.  What a long tropical season it's been. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #148 on: November 02, 2020, 07:19:52 PM »
Eta is giving off Hurricane Mitch vibes as far as hitting a very poor and mountainous area as if 2020 needed any more disasters nationally or internationally.

The NHC or NOAA should really look into never using Eta again if it does what I think it will do and just replacing it with a Greek God or Goodness name instead.     

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #149 on: November 04, 2020, 09:16:15 AM »
What is currently TS Eta, after landfalling in Nicaragua as a Cat 4, is now forecast to eventually reemerge into the Gulf, restrengthen to TS status, cross over the eastern end of Cuba, and finally land in South Florida as a TS. That final landfall should be sometime November 9th. If that all plays out this storm will have directly impacted at least six different countries.

While it's likely to be a weak storm with minimal damage for us in the U.S. the coverage I've seen from Central America is just absolutely devastating; 2-3 feet of rain in some locations that didn't have a particularly strong infrastructure to begin with. It's going to take years to recover from what happened there.

 

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