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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 11076 times)

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Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #120 on: September 18, 2020, 11:45:03 AM »
In other news it looks like there's a good chance Teddy plows into Nova Scotia as a hurricane around the middle of next week. When was the last time they had a hurricane warning? This is just a bizarre tropical season.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #121 on: September 18, 2020, 04:53:57 PM »
Beta in the Gulf.  We might get all the way to like Nu if this continues.  Remember we are only about 55% maybe 60% through the season as the peak is around September 10th.   There is nothing stopping at least 7-9 more named storms by the end of November. 

Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #122 on: September 19, 2020, 07:27:42 AM »
I have a question that may need to be answered after 2020.

Do Greek names get retired?

If Hurricane Epislon runs up the East Coast and causes a lot of damage because it is 2020 does it get retired and if it does a Roman or Arabic name get used in its place?
I saw the following from WATE in Knoxville this morning:
Quote
If any of the Greek alphabet named storms reach the criteria to be “retired,” the storms will be retired using the year attached to the Greek alphabet letter, but the actual name itself will still be available for use.

For example, if Subtropical Storm Alpha becomes an intense storm that warrants the name being retired, the name Alpha 2020 will be retired, but “Alpha” itself will still be available for future storms.

Offline bugalou

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #123 on: September 19, 2020, 12:01:40 PM »
In regard to the naming system for Tropical storms, I am of the opinion it needs to be changed.  Here is my proposal:

Eliminate the Greek alphabet scheme. Then, stop having an exclusive list for every season specifically.  Just release a new list when the previous one is near exhaustion, and then role to A when the old list is done. Also, we shouldn't start over at A, on a new list, at the end of a season, just pick up where we left off from last.  It also fixes the issue with all the beginning lettered names being retired at a higher rate than the back end of the alphabet.  We really gain no scientific benefit by limiting a pool of names season to season.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #124 on: September 19, 2020, 05:36:59 PM »
In regard to the naming system for Tropical storms, I am of the opinion it needs to be changed.  Here is my proposal:

Eliminate the Greek alphabet scheme. Then, stop having an exclusive list for every season specifically.  Just release a new list when the previous one is near exhaustion, and then role to A when the old list is done. Also, we shouldn't start over at A, on a new list, at the end of a season, just pick up where we left off from last.  It also fixes the issue with all the beginning lettered names being retired at a higher rate than the back end of the alphabet.  We really gain no scientific benefit by limiting a pool of names season to season.

I agree with everything although I do think one list needs to be Greek mythology based.  Not the letters but the actual Greek God and Godesses.  Add the Q's and U's and Z's if you can as well just because a Hurricane Zeus would be need.  A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Uranus would unite this country in memes. 

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #125 on: September 24, 2020, 07:42:25 PM »
Getting some lightning from the remnants of Beta tonight. Wasn’t expecting that. I’m also right at 2” of much needed rain.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #126 on: September 24, 2020, 09:15:06 PM »
Beta is trying its best to make up for Sally’s miss last week. 3.50” and it’s still pouring down.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline JayCee

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #127 on: September 25, 2020, 06:44:36 AM »
Even though it will become background noise to all the other events of 2020, east TN observed something as rare as a solar eclipse overnight when it was traversed by it's first tropical system named with a Greek letter.  Considering how rare it is to even see the Greek alphabet used in the Atlantic basin, Beta could be the only one for many decades, if it ever happens again.  Or it could happen next year, as bizarre as the roaring 20's have started.

Although Beta was no "top dog" of the season, it still managed to drop 2.55" of rain here in 24 hours.  It's the heaviest 24 hour rain event IMBY since 4/13.  Thanks, Beta.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2020, 06:46:15 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #128 on: September 25, 2020, 10:46:27 AM »
Wound up with 4.35" here. It's the most since the night of the tornado.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #129 on: September 28, 2020, 02:51:39 PM »
Just got back from a long weekend on Tybee Island, GA. Spotted this sign and thought it might be appreciated:
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Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #130 on: October 02, 2020, 07:44:14 PM »
We've got Gamma in the Gulf, probably going somewhere into Mexico.

Offline ryandourius

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #131 on: October 03, 2020, 05:55:01 PM »
We've got Gamma in the Gulf, probably going somewhere into Mexico.

More concerned with the one forecast to form behind Gamma.

Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #132 on: October 03, 2020, 06:06:16 PM »
More concerned with the one forecast to form behind Gamma.
I agree, that's one to watch closely.

Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #133 on: October 04, 2020, 07:27:14 AM »
Projections for that area of disturbance below Cuba have jumped up to a 70% chance of development in 2 days and 80% within 5 days. I'm not seeing anything yet on the possibility of a track that would bring it towards a landfall, and it's really too early for anything to be reliable, but we'll almost definitely have Delta by mid-week.

Online cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #134 on: October 19, 2020, 08:42:37 AM »
TD27, probably future Hurricane Epsilon, is now active in the Atlantic. Early forecasts are saying it isn't a threat to the U.S., but it is headed East/Northeast. Maybe a future nor'easter for the northeast rather than a tropical landfall?

 

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