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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 7961 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #60 on: August 09, 2020, 02:56:45 PM »
There's an emerging system just off the coast of Africa that NHC is putting at a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. Given the track record so far this season and the overall favorable conditions it will be worth watching.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #61 on: August 10, 2020, 12:06:36 PM »
There's an emerging system just off the coast of Africa that NHC is putting at a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days. Given the track record so far this season and the overall favorable conditions it will be worth watching.
Both the 2 day and 5 day outlooks are now up to 60% probability of development.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #62 on: August 10, 2020, 07:23:08 PM »
The Gulf is ripe for an explosion of wind and water. I fear the worst.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #63 on: August 10, 2020, 09:30:36 PM »
The Gulf is ripe for an explosion of wind and water. I fear the worst.

The Gulf is America's metaphorical bathtub.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #64 on: August 11, 2020, 02:22:40 PM »
NHC has updated tropical system formation probability of the system in the Gulf up to 90% in the next 48 hours. That's about as absolute as you can get with a weather forecast.

I saw one way too early spaghetti model on a weather site I follow that has many of the tracks headed straight into the east coast of the U.S., with just a couple swinging north and back out to sea. We're reasonably several days out from anything even resembling reliable tracks, but formation is all but certain and we've got very favorable conditions for a strong system coming across the Atlantic and landfalling in the U.S. Let's all hope for a fish storm, we don't need any more catastrophes in 2020.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #65 on: August 11, 2020, 08:09:38 PM »
Officially a TD now, will be Josephine if it reaches TS strength.

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2020, 07:14:48 AM »
As of now, it looks to be a potential Bermuda-only problem. Not ideal, but landfalls are rare there, so percentages are on their side.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #67 on: August 14, 2020, 06:57:01 AM »
The track for Josephine thankfully looks to take a hard right and stay a fish storm rather than getting to the U.S., which is great news.

Offline ryandourius

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #68 on: August 14, 2020, 07:36:02 AM »
The computer models are picking up on something getting into the Gulf area this weekend or early next week. We will see how it goes.
« Last Edit: August 14, 2020, 10:01:37 AM by ryandourius »

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #69 on: August 14, 2020, 07:04:02 PM »
And just like that we've got TS Kyle off the Virginia coast. It's headed almost due East into the Atlantic but it really seems to have come from nowhere.

I'll be honest, storms like this scare me. If a sizeable hurricane ramps up suddenly without giving people the chance to prepare or evacuate it could be really disastrous. The weather may be boring where we are but the Atlantic is getting nuts.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #70 on: August 14, 2020, 08:27:18 PM »
Wow. Is that pretty uncommon to see tropical storms spawn in latitudes that far north? VA is about 37-38⁰N.

You're right, Knox, it does appear it's going to veer ENE with the warmest waters, I suppose with the direction of the Gulf Stream.

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Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #71 on: August 17, 2020, 09:58:09 AM »
Double-header action forming as we head in to the peak. Canadian is showing back-to-back hits between MS and the Panhandle. GFS is showing one of these going in to TX as a Cat3. Definitely something to keep our eyes on.


Offline NismoWx

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #72 on: August 17, 2020, 02:02:25 PM »
Double-header action forming as we head in to the peak. Canadian is showing back-to-back hits between MS and the Panhandle. GFS is showing one of these going in to TX as a Cat3. Definitely something to keep our eyes on.



Welp, I'll be in Destin Friday. Flying down to see my sister and the kids before I go back to work. Hopefully they'll both fizzle out and turn into the Yucatan.

Edit: Looks like a 50/50 shot there..

« Last Edit: August 17, 2020, 02:06:44 PM by NismoWx »

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #73 on: August 17, 2020, 04:15:22 PM »
If you're sticking around until Wednesday and believe the Canadian this far out, I, uh, have some bad news for you.  ::drowning::


Offline NismoWx

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #74 on: August 17, 2020, 05:13:20 PM »
If you're sticking around until Wednesday and believe the Canadian this far out, I, uh, have some bad news for you.  ::drowning::


Nope, I fly home Monday morning. My sister and parents may not be far behind, if that's holds

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