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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 7805 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #90 on: September 07, 2020, 12:23:08 PM »
It is all but certain that we are going to Greek Names this year.  I wonder if we get an landfalling Alpha or Beta.   

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #91 on: September 08, 2020, 06:03:20 AM »
Rene is now a named storm. Based on the current forecast cones it looks like both could be fish storms, but I've been seeing discussions that the high pressure over the Atlantic is likely to swing storms south into the U.S. coast. It's a long time from now for either storm so for now we can just check the daily updates and see what develops.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #92 on: September 08, 2020, 08:09:09 AM »
In addition to the big storms swirling way out in the Atlantic the system near Bermuda may end up landfalling as a weak TS somewhere in the Carolinas within the next 2-3 days. We may be dealing with warm, boring weather locally but there's plenty to track right now.

Offline BeetleChe13

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #93 on: September 08, 2020, 05:04:49 PM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ] [ Guests cannot view attachments ] And now a wave behind them to monitor that hasn't even emerged off of Africa yet. Definitely hitting peak season.

« Last Edit: September 08, 2020, 05:07:06 PM by BeetleChe13, Reason: added attachment »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #94 on: September 09, 2020, 07:26:54 AM »
In addition to the big storms swirling way out in the Atlantic the system near Bermuda may end up landfalling as a weak TS somewhere in the Carolinas within the next 2-3 days. We may be dealing with warm, boring weather locally but there's plenty to track right now.
Iím at isle of palms SC all week this week. Itís been very windy since Sunday, and it rained all day yesterday and last night. There has been brilliant lightning off shore the entire time weíve been here. Iíve kinda suspected something was brewing. At least it hasnít been hot. High temps have been in the low 80ís. Overall itís been nice despite the rain.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #95 on: September 09, 2020, 07:28:30 AM »
(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) And now a wave behind them to monitor that hasn't even emerged off of Africa yet. Definitely hitting peak season.
Discussion I saw last night says that third wave coming off Africa soon is much more concerning to us in the U.S. Right now it's expected to track farther south than the two currently out there, which means a greater chance that it comes into the Gulf or the east coast and doesn't get carried off north as a fish storm. I think it's the one for us to focus on in the next week plus.

Offline BeetleChe13

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #96 on: September 09, 2020, 11:14:08 PM »
Discussion I saw last night says that third wave coming off Africa soon is much more concerning to us in the U.S. Right now it's expected to track farther south than the two currently out there, which means a greater chance that it comes into the Gulf or the east coast and doesn't get carried off north as a fish storm. I think it's the one for us to focus on in the next week plus.

I definitely agree this one is particularly concerning, though I would love the season to finish with fish storms and low ACE. Also, there's now another disturbance off the east coast of FL that will track over the FL peninsula this weekend and into the eastern GOMEX. I think this one might take people by surprise.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #97 on: September 10, 2020, 05:46:47 AM »
Also, there's now another disturbance off the east coast of FL that will track over the FL peninsula this weekend and into the eastern GOMEX. I think this one might take people by surprise.
Saw a tweet from Jim Cantore on that one this morning. He's not saying anything other than keep an eye on it, but it has the potential to turn into a storm over the weekend. Craziness.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #98 on: September 11, 2020, 09:06:18 AM »
The disturbance off the southern tip of FL right now has a 40% chance of development in 2 days but 60% in 5 days. It looks likely that we'll have a storm in the Gulf early next week.

The area that just came off the coast of Africa is essentially guaranteed to develop (90% in 5 days) and the tracks I've seen have it swinging south of the last 2 named systems with a good chance of getting to the U.S. It may be the biggest thing to watch for a while as it has plenty of time to develop and pretty much everything is in play this far out. There's also yet another system that's still over land in Africa at the moment that may turn into something in the longer time frame. Tropical forecasters are going to stay very busy.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #99 on: September 11, 2020, 04:53:30 PM »
We will be using Greek Names by the end of this month. 

Offline Eric

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #100 on: September 11, 2020, 08:29:25 PM »
Looks like TD19 may stall somewhere along the GoM.  That would suck.
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #101 on: September 12, 2020, 06:33:09 AM »
The forecast cone had TD19 coming into the LA/MS coastline as a TS midweek. Stuff off the coast of Africa is looking pretty healthy at the moment too. The peak of the season may be one for the record books.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #102 on: September 12, 2020, 01:51:32 PM »
Never have been interested in tropical systems at all but it seems a lot of the tropical weather nerds are chattering a lot on TV about the rest of this season.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #103 on: September 13, 2020, 05:34:45 AM »
TD20 is looking to eventually swing north and follow the pattern right now if fish storms coming off of Africa. That track pattern is a lucky break for the U.S.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #104 on: September 13, 2020, 06:38:11 PM »
TD20 is now forecast to be a major hurricane by Thursday, but the track looks to stay over open water.

 

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