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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 7829 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #75 on: August 19, 2020, 08:49:20 AM »
The computer models are picking up on something getting into the Gulf area this weekend or early next week. We will see how it goes.
You got onto this one early. It's now being discussed as Invest 97L with an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days as it comes into the Gulf. Models are all over the place, from the Florida panhandle to Mexico, but something is going to happen.

Offline gcbama

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #76 on: August 19, 2020, 02:25:47 PM »
You got onto this one early. It's now being discussed as Invest 97L with an 80% chance of development in the next 5 days as it comes into the Gulf. Models are all over the place, from the Florida panhandle to Mexico, but something is going to happen.

yep who knows exactly how it will go , but something is gonna happen along with Invest 98

Offline BeetleChe13

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #77 on: August 19, 2020, 06:54:45 PM »
yep who knows exactly how it will go , but something is gonna happen along with Invest 98

I agree. The wave behind them is particularly juicy as well, so I hope NHC's discussion that it will face inhospitable conditions past Cabo Verde holds true. The models seems to be having a hard time with the systems so far this year, mostly because the systems have had difficulty forming a clear, closed LLC. This has led to several small surprises already, and I don't think it'll change in the immediate future. I've got my hurricane kit prepared and am staying on my toes. Anyone else think the peak this year will be a little later than usual? Considering the conditions haven't been ideal up to this point, I think it's just getting started. My two cents is the season will kick into high gear mid-September to early October because of the MJO and La Nina forecasts.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #78 on: August 20, 2020, 06:19:10 AM »
We've now got TD13 with a forecast cone largely riding up the FL peninsula. Too early to really believe the track, but it looks like some kind of Gulf coast landfall is increasingly likely, with the Atlantic coast not completely out of the question.

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #79 on: August 20, 2020, 06:51:50 AM »
Yeah, most models are on board for a Gulf storm. Seeing everything from a weak TS to Cat 3 somewhere between Morgan City to Apalachee Bay.

Online NismoWx

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #80 on: August 20, 2020, 10:13:22 AM »
TD13 and TD14, with 13 expected to reach TS status by the end of the day. It's about to get nautical in the Gulf!

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #81 on: August 20, 2020, 10:25:45 AM »
The potential of nearly simultaneous landfalling systems, both in Gulf, is just insane. For those that have a better understanding of the dynamics, will two storms this close to each other somewhat minimize the total energy available to either and keep both weaker than they might be otherwise? I'm sure similar things have happened before but I certainly can't remember it.

Offline Matthew

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #82 on: August 20, 2020, 10:40:16 AM »
I have a lot of friends and family that live on the west side around Tampa. 

Offline Matthew

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #83 on: August 20, 2020, 10:41:41 AM »
The potential of nearly simultaneous landfalling systems, both in Gulf, is just insane. For those that have a better understanding of the dynamics, will two storms this close to each other somewhat minimize the total energy available to either and keep both weaker than they might be otherwise? I'm sure similar things have happened before but I certainly can't remember it.
What is also going to be interesting to watch is how many tornadoes will be going off in parts of the United States at the same time along with flooding rains. Were talking multiple states as both storms come into the US. Only in 2020.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #84 on: August 20, 2020, 01:20:30 PM »
The potential of nearly simultaneous landfalling systems, both in Gulf, is just insane. For those that have a better understanding of the dynamics, will two storms this close to each other somewhat minimize the total energy available to either and keep both weaker than they might be otherwise? I'm sure similar things have happened before but I certainly can't remember it.

I was wondering the exact same thing. Surely it would have too. This is certainly a best case scenario for sure.

Offline gcbama

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #85 on: August 20, 2020, 02:03:10 PM »
TD13 and TD14, with 13 expected to reach TS status by the end of the day. It's about to get nautical in the Gulf!

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what are the upper dynamics looking like in 5 days? sheer / dry air? obviously the gulf waters are always ripe but it depends on everything else

Offline Matthew

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #86 on: August 20, 2020, 03:40:39 PM »
what are the upper dynamics looking like in 5 days? sheer / dry air? obviously the gulf waters are always ripe but it depends on everything else
Sheer and dry air look to be gone leaving a perfect environment for the second storm that looks to track eastern gom.  Now of course were still talking 3-4 days out so anything can change. If models are right and this tracks right along the west side of FL then its worse case  scenario with storm surge.  Also the inland impacts will be very interesting as if will the storms stall or be pulled out but some areas could see unreal rain amounts.  Especially with 2 systems jogging along slowly that close together.  Lots to see what happens.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 03:42:31 PM by Matthew »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #87 on: August 20, 2020, 05:46:47 PM »
While the potential double gulf systems are interesting, my sights are set on Labor Day week. Im working from home now, so I decided to do so from a beach condo that week. I need a change of scenery. Isle of Palms SC is the destination. We usually go for the week of July 4th. Weve never been during peak hurricane season before.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #88 on: September 01, 2020, 05:45:58 PM »
Amazing- its just September 1st, and we are already at the O-storm in the Atlantic basin.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #89 on: September 07, 2020, 11:56:30 AM »
We officially have TS Paulette now in the Atlantic and good odds of seeing TS Rene develop before the day is over. The peak of the season looks to stay very interesting.

 

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