2020 Tropical Season Outlook

[cgauxknox]

While the impact should thankfully be minimal, TS Fay is the earliest F named storm on record. It's been relatively quiet in terms of damage so far but this has been a busy hurricane season already.

[cgauxknox]

There's a good chance of a tropical system, either storm or depression, forming in the Gulf in the next few days. It will probably be just a Texas/Louisiana impact with nothing coming into our area, but if it ends up a named storm it would add to the active season total so far. And also, it's something actually weather related to distract us from the non-weather things happening in the world.

[cgauxknox]

Completely different than the expected tropical development in the Gulf we suddenly have TS Gonzalo out in the Atlantic. It's way too early to reasonably discuss track or intensity at this point but by the weekend we may possibly have two named systems active.

[Thundersnow]

Here's the current forecast track for Gonzalo



Note- this is the earliest on record for a G-named storm.

[StormNine]

The H-storm looks to follow in the Gulf.   

[cgauxknox]

Here's the current forecast track for Gonzalo



Note- this is the earliest on record for a G-named storm.

Thanks for posting this. It's still way out but the early track certainly looks like the classic path to come into the Gulf and blow up over warm water. I don't even want to think about the disruption right now if a major Hurricane prompts a large scale evacuation. We have to get a break in 2020 sooner or later, right?

[cgauxknox]

Gonzalo should be a hurricane by tomorrow morning, but will likely weaken again once it starts interacting with land as it crosses the Windward Islands and then gets into Haiti/DR. The track still looks to eventually bring it into the Gulf, and once it's in that bathwater who knows?

[mamMATTus]

00z GFS has a landfalling Gonzalo as a tropical storm hitting New Orleans around August 7th. I feel like this is almost a best case scenario with Gulf bathwater. I'll take this with a grain of salt.

[cgauxknox]

We've now got Tropical Storm Watches across most of the Texas coast for what is currently TD8.

[Thundersnow]

I wonder if Gonzalo ends up in Central America. The 5 day out look keeps it way far south, well south of Jamaica, even. It could certainly make a turn into the southern Gulf beyond that though.

[schneitzeit]

The system in the Gulf is now Tropical Storm Hanna, expected to make landfall in southern Texas and Tamaulipas.

[StormNine]

Hanna is trending away from Matagorda Bay and more towards Deep South TX or even the border.

[schneitzeit]

I wonder if Gonzalo ends up in Central America. The 5 day out look keeps it way far south, well south of Jamaica, even. It could certainly make a turn into the southern Gulf beyond that though.

It's very far south right now- parallel with Venezuela!

[cgauxknox]

After record early 6th and 7th named storms of the season TS Hanna is the earliest ever H storm. We've also got a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa that's being watched. Weather is thankfully pretty calm for us locally but there's going to be lots to watch in the tropics for a while.

[StormNine]

Hanna is now forecast to make landfall just south of Corpus Christi as a CAT 1 Hurricane, which is not what that area needed especially since that area is one of the hardest hit areas currently in the world due to COVID-19.