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Author Topic: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook  (Read 11044 times)

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2020, 07:56:39 AM »
Long range GFS has a tropical storm/low end hurricane coming off the Yucatan Peninsula and landfalling along the Florida west coast.
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2020, 07:59:19 AM »
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

This the year of Murphy's Law I'm afraid. Anything that can go wrong, will lol. I certainly don't want anymore natural disasters. This country cannot handle that right now. This would be incredibly poor timing as well for my friends that just moved from Denver to Tampa.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2020, 07:24:06 AM »
We have Tropical Storm Bertha right off the coast of South Carolina expected to move into South Carolina between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. 

That is 2 before June 1st.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2020, 07:33:59 AM »
We have Tropical Storm Bertha right off the coast of South Carolina expected to move into South Carolina between Charleston and Georgetown, SC. 

That is 2 before June 1st.

Quote
This the year of Murphy's Law I'm afraid.
- mamMATTus

My gosh our country needs to catch a lucky break soon.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2020, 03:38:39 PM »
Really wild looking radar again over the SE US today with Bertha making landfall and interacting with the large closed low over the lower MS valley.
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Offline wfrogge

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2020, 08:28:52 AM »
Let's hope this is just the GFS being the GFS and we don't get a landfalling storm.  My gosh, we don't need more natural disasters (after the flooding in Michigan) on top of everything else our country has faced in 2020. 

I realize based on season projections my hope isn't rational as we should see an above average season this year, but we can still hope for a lucky break.

Its still showing up on the GFS and now on the GDPS, and ECMWF. With no real flow to push things along my fear is we will get a system that just sits and spins in one spot for days like we are seeing with the ULL systems over TX/AR/LA/TN/MS right now

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2020, 06:47:48 PM »
NHC is showing 40-60% development chances for two different areas, one in the mid Atlantic and the other on the Pacific side of Central America. The one near Central America is being watched to potentially cross into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. Pretty active pattern to watch for so early in the year.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2020, 08:10:02 AM »
ensembles starting to show a gulf coast landing hurricane within 10 days... most point toward the Louisiana coast line... ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline BeetleChe13

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #23 on: June 01, 2020, 08:53:03 AM »
NHC this morning showing an 80% chance that Invest 93L/Remnants of Amanda will develop into a tropical system in the next 48 hours. Some models show it staying near the coast and re-entering the Pacific (which would be pretty unique), but most show it developing into a hurricane and hitting Louisana or northern part of Texas coast. Almost all of the models show it spinning in the Bay of Campeche for a couple of days first. Off to an active start.

Offline gcbama

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2020, 03:07:59 PM »
this gulf system is def one to watch very intently

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #25 on: June 02, 2020, 05:54:38 AM »
Jim Cantore is getting on board with the Gulf system. Early spaghetti models are favoring Texas but plenty of lines also go farther East to landfall in Louisiana. We may have a storm to actively track in a few days.

EDIT: We officially have TD3 now in the Gulf. NHC expects it to strengthen into TS Cristobal by later today.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2020, 06:17:41 AM by cgauxknox »

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #26 on: June 02, 2020, 04:40:45 PM »
Looking like there's the potential for a pretty decent rainmaker in the TN and OH valleys about a week out if this storm tracks west of us as currently modeled. 

I'm always weary to see Nola on the east side of a storm. Their pump situation is dubious on a good day, and the past couple months have been anything but good days. I used to work closely with S&WB when I lived there and I can almost guarantee they haven't been doing any of the needed maintenance the past couple of months to get the system ready for hurricane season. Local rumor mill is that some of the pumps are already on backup power because some power units are down.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #27 on: June 02, 2020, 04:48:31 PM »
As expected we have an official Tropical Storm now, Cristobal. June 2 and we're already on our third named storm of the season. That doesn't necessarily predict a season as active as what's predicted but it does start checking the boxes on the number of named storms for the year. This far out I hope the whole Gulf coast is paying attention until we get a better idea of where this thing is going and how strong it will be when it gets there. With so much on the news already I'm afraid weather, even severe weather and hurricanes, may go under-reported and put people in danger.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #28 on: June 03, 2020, 06:43:51 AM »
Right now it looks like we'll have a high-end TS impacting the Gulf coast by Sunday/Monday. The potential landfall right now is somewhere from Houston to Alabama, but it's expected to have much more activity to the east than the west of the core so heavy rain and wind may go a long way from landfall.

Local forecasts aren't picking up on the impacts for Tennessee yet, but if we continue to sit in between the steering high pressure areas I won't be surprised to see it move inland and drench parts or all of the state since more precipitation will be east of the storm track. With rivers and lakes high already this may be one to watch for us, and especially for impacts on a still flooded Mississippi River.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2020 Tropical Season Outlook
« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2020, 07:06:05 AM »
It's unlikely to turn into much but NHC is showing a 60% chance of development with the system off the Carolina coast at the moment. It should put down heavy rain from the Carolinas all the way to New England in the next few days.

 

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