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Author Topic: Hurricane Zeta  (Read 291 times)

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Offline Curt

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Hurricane Zeta
« on: October 26, 2020, 02:37:51 PM »
12z Euro going to give New Orleans fits. Now has it moving on the the SE La coast with 130 mph gusts. It tracks just over the western part of Ponchartrain and with 110 mph gusts in NOLA. If this is the scenario, this will be problematic.

Offline Curt

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 02:54:54 PM »
It’s worth noting the euro is now by far the strongest model run. Will have to see if it holds. Being 2020, wouldn’t surprise me if it wasn’t on the stronger side.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 03:33:43 PM »
This is going to rack up some pretty big rain totals somewhere in the state. There will likely be interaction with the approaching front and the additional forcing is really going to wring this thing out.  I'm thinking 3-5" widespread from the plateau eastwards with Zeta. Isolated higher.

I think around 10" qpf has come from tropical systems IMBY so far this year. Without them we would be entering a drought right on the tail end of the wettest 12 month period ever recorded. (77" from 10/1/2019 to 9/30/2020)
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline Curt

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Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 03:35:14 PM »
This is going to rack up some pretty big rain totals somewhere in the state. There will likely be interaction with the approaching front and the additional forcing is really going to wring this thing out.  I'm thinking 3-5" widespread from the plateau eastwards with Zeta. Isolated higher.

I think around 10" qpf has come from tropical systems IMBY so far this year. Without them we would be entering a drought right on the tail end of the wettest 12 month period ever recorded.
Yep. Anything hitting Louisiana is probably going to affect the entire state at some point. I need to go back and look at each one and the QPF they’ve brought. It’s amazing.

Looking at October, we would have had no rain at all if it weren’t for Beta and now to come Zeta (or interaction with).
« Last Edit: October 26, 2020, 03:47:51 PM by Curt »

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 03:52:01 PM »
Yep. Anything hitting Louisiana is probably going to affect the entire state at some point. I need to go back and look at each one and the QPF they’ve brought. It’s amazing.

Looking at October, we would have had no rain at all if it weren’t for Beta and now to come Zeta (or interaction with).
The crazy thing is my location has been in the bullseye all year with the tropical systems and we have not received 1.5 inches total. I know some places have but we have missed it for the most part.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 04:51:24 PM »
The crazy thing is my location has been in the bullseye all year with the tropical systems and we have not received 1.5 inches total. I know some places have but we have missed it for the most part.

I was thinking the exact same thing. I bet we have been forecasted to get 10-12 inches from these systems and I have recorded less than 1 inch from them total. Lol crazy

Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #6 on: Yesterday at 07:56:58 AM »
Widespread 2-4" of rain coming statewide thanks to Zeta combining with a strong autumn front coming in.  That will probably bring most of the leaves down, save many of the oaks that still have some green leaves.  I plan to enjoy the dry, warm 70's today. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #7 on: Yesterday at 09:51:55 AM »
And not-so-shocking news in the third world that we call New Orleans, but one of their four pump turbines is down. Assuming everything is up and running, the system can handle one inch of rainfall per hour for the first hour and a half inch every hour after that. Less so now that the system is running on less power. Every time I get a little nostalgic for my time spent living there, it's things like this that bring me back to reality and why we moved.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #8 on: Yesterday at 12:16:31 PM »
The Euro has an Opal like damaging wind event in Northern Georgia between Chattanooga and Atlanta. Several hours of 70-90 mph gusts. I know the gust product is often overdone, but late season tropical systems are notorious for inland wind due to rapid forward motion. Looks like Chattanooga itself escapes with max gusts under 50 mph, but it's too close for comfort. Would be a bad situation in Atlanta.

Just to add: Go see fall leaves now. Like today. This storm is going to strip them all away from the plateau eastwards.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 12:24:26 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline Eric

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #9 on: Yesterday at 05:32:37 PM »
Quote
This is one of the most unusual weather events I've seen in #Tennessee - a former tropical storm re-intensifying due to interaction with a baroclinic zone, displaying an apparent eye on radar and producing hurricane eyewall-like wind damage to Cat 1 intensity
(h/t @Shamnadoes)

Referencing Olga and it's impact on Clarksville/NW TN a year ago.

Quote
Might see this again with Zeta. Fast forward motion and ET-transition over land with a 90 knot 850 LLJ and 80 knots at 900. If there’s any deep convection on the east side the winds will catch a lot of people by surprise over Alabama this time. (Like we need it).
(h/t @BackinBlack_wx)

Seems legit.   ::coffee::

The Euro has an Opal like damaging wind event in Northern Georgia between Chattanooga and Atlanta. Several hours of 70-90 mph gusts. I know the gust product is often overdone, but late season tropical systems are notorious for inland wind due to rapid forward motion. Looks like Chattanooga itself escapes with max gusts under 50 mph, but it's too close for comfort. Would be a bad situation in Atlanta.

Just to add: Go see fall leaves now. Like today. This storm is going to strip them all away from the plateau eastwards.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 05:34:42 PM by Eric »
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Offline JayCee

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #10 on: Yesterday at 06:44:11 PM »
NHC has now shifted Zeta's track slightly northwest into east TN.  The mountains will definitely see some rough winds, but the valley won't be immune if the track is directly over us. 

"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Hurricane Zeta
« Reply #11 on: Yesterday at 06:52:20 PM »
NHC has now shifted Zeta's track slightly northwest into east TN.  The mountains will definitely see some rough winds, but the valley won't be immune if the track is directly over us.
Post tropical transition happens almost overhead also. Getting a little concerned here. Could be a serious wind threat when it starts interacting with the front.

The other side of my backyard fence is under a Tropical Storm watch. My lot is on the GA line. FFC has issued watches for their northern counties.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 07:27:21 PM by dwagner88 »
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

 

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