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Author Topic: March 12 Severe Risk  (Read 3616 times)

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Offline Beth

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #105 on: March 12, 2020, 06:57:07 PM »
It looks like KY is going to have to deal with this tonight. Does it seem like we will get any hail or damaging wind or tornadoes in middle TN?

Online gcbama

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #106 on: March 12, 2020, 07:51:11 PM »
nothing very impressive so far , which is not a bad thing

quite a flash flood threat up north though
« Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 07:53:44 PM by gcbama »

Online mamMATTus

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #107 on: March 12, 2020, 07:58:42 PM »
Honestly I'm totally fine with that cap staying in place.

Online gcbama

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #108 on: March 12, 2020, 08:16:39 PM »
Honestly I'm totally fine with that cap staying in place.

as I said I am green on severe weather, how can you tell a cap is in place still, I know what the cap is but how do you know if it breaks?

Online Eric

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #109 on: March 12, 2020, 08:20:39 PM »
as I said I am green on severe weather, how can you tell a cap is in place still, I know what the cap is but how do you know if it breaks?

You really can't unless you look at observed skew-Ts or see storm development on the radar.  SPC Mesoanalysis page is chock full of information but is quite useful.
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Online Scot

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #110 on: March 12, 2020, 08:24:22 PM »
Just went outside to walk the dog. It feels warmer now than it did 3 hours ago and the clouds are breaking up (moon was bright).


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Online gcbama

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #111 on: March 12, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »
You really can't unless you look at observed skew-Ts or see storm development on the radar.  SPC Mesoanalysis page is chock full of information but is quite useful.

you can tell something went astray with the forecast, the first tor watch had those high tornado probs that didn't pan out and now the ark storms are fizzling.....how interesting that when a more widespread event seems likely as of now it hasn't panned out and last weeks event wasn't supposed to produce anything like we had.....weather is amazingly unpredictable

Online Eric

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #112 on: March 12, 2020, 08:26:03 PM »
you can tell something went astray with the forecast, the first tor watch had those high tornado probs that didn't pan out and now the ark storms are fizzling.....how interesting that when a more widespread event seems likely as of now it hasn't panned out and last weeks event wasn't supposed to produce anything like we had.....weather is amazingly unpredictable

If I had to guess, the cap was a bit stronger than anticipated.  Happens often in the Plains.  The cap has been known to ruin many a day of tornado chasing.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #113 on: March 12, 2020, 08:27:57 PM »
Thank God. This part of the country can do without any more tornadoes this year.

Good riddance, severe weather threat! Let's hope I'm not speaking too soon.
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Online gcbama

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #114 on: March 12, 2020, 08:29:35 PM »
If I had to guess, the cap was a bit stronger than anticipated.  Happens often in the Plains.  The cap has been known to ruin many a day of tornado chasing.

But my gosh when it breaks somedays on the plains the radar is unreal...may 1999 comes to mind

Online BRUCE

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #115 on: March 12, 2020, 08:48:38 PM »
If I had to guess, the cap was a bit stronger than anticipated.  Happens often in the Plains.  The cap has been known to ruin many a day of tornado chasing.
yeah kudos for the gfs picking up on that as I mentioned yesterday after 18z. Mid level capping look pretty stout
Come on severe wx season...

Online gcbama

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #116 on: March 12, 2020, 09:13:06 PM »
wonder if something will come of those cells in the bootheel...?

Looks like we could make it through this ok :)...but last event I thought the exact same thing about this same time of night....gonna keep my weather app alerts open just in case

Online Eric

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #117 on: March 12, 2020, 09:16:59 PM »
Crapvection starting to fire up.  Crapvection will kill the discrete supercell threat.
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Online gcbama

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Re: March 12 Severe Risk
« Reply #118 on: March 12, 2020, 09:22:11 PM »
Crapvection starting to fire up.  Crapvection will kill the discrete supercell threat.

I think we are in good shape for now :).we needed a break after last week

 

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