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Author Topic: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat  (Read 1331 times)

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Online NismoWx

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3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« on: March 24, 2020, 11:49:37 AM »






Quote
Day 1 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will be
   focused this afternoon and evening across the Tennessee Valley.

   ...TN Valley this afternoon/evening...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over AR/MO this morning will move
   eastward to the TN Valley by this evening, as an associated surface
   cyclone in OK develops eastward along a rain-reinforced boundary
   near the southern TN border.  Along and south of this surface
   boundary, dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s through the
   afternoon, beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km per 12z
   soundings.  The net result with daytime heating in cloud breaks will
   be moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) within the warm sector,
   in advance of the surface cyclone/midlevel trough.

   In the wake of the elevated convection this morning, additional
   thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon in the
   vicinity of southwestern TN/northern MS, south of the ongoing
   elevated storms in the left-exit region of the midlevel jet over
   northeast AR.  Storms will subsequently spread eastward across
   northern AL and southern middle TN through the evening.  Strong
   deep-layer vertical shear with long hodographs and effective bulk
   shear of 50-60 kt, as well as low-level hodograph curvature with 0-1
   km SRH near 200 m2/s2, will favor supercells.  Low-level shear could
   be enhanced some along the residual rain-cooled boundary that will
   likely shift northward into southern middle TN by mid afternoon.
   Farther south, some vertical mixing of moisture could introduce
   somewhat larger (15-20 F) temperature-dewpoint spreads from central
   MS into central AL this afternoon.  Thus, the most favorable
   corridor for tornadic storms will be in the zone of greater
   low-level shear and retained low-level moisture near the rain-cooled
   boundary, closer to the TN border this afternoon/evening.  The
   favorable near-storm environment, in combination with an expected
   discrete/cluster storm mode, may support a strong tornado or two.

   ..Thompson/Moore.. 03/24/2020
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 11:51:33 AM by NismoWx »

Offline gcbama

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2020, 12:12:00 PM »
am I wrong or is there very little north movement of warm front....I don't even think it has passed the tn/al border based on dew points?

Online Eric

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2020, 12:22:00 PM »
am I wrong or is there very little north movement of warm front....I don't even think it has passed the tn/al border based on dew points?

Not yet.  Once the surface low moves out of the Ozarks, it'll pull it northward.
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Offline gcbama

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2020, 12:48:36 PM »
scattered showers all over the place in southern tn....by the time system gets here I don't see how we could destabilize enough for a supercell event....of course I am no meteorologist so I stand to be corrected lol

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2020, 01:10:43 PM »
Is it a myth that sixty degree Fahrenheit temperatures are too cool for severe storms?
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2020, 01:16:53 PM »
Is it a myth that sixty degree Fahrenheit temperatures are too cool for severe storms?

Oh yes- I think the temp was right around there on the night of March 2-3 when that supercell raked across Middle TN...
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2020, 01:18:07 PM »
Oh yes- I think the temp was right around there on the night of March 2-3 when that supercell raked across Middle TN...

Wild, wild weather. It's strange to have severe wx in the mix today when it looks and feels like February outside.
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline gcbama

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2020, 01:21:36 PM »
but you do have to have some cape

Online wmp600

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2020, 01:25:11 PM »
Is this band coming through west Tennessee now, the second wave they have been talking about which is supposed to produce the severe weather?

Online Eric

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2020, 01:31:05 PM »
Is this band coming through west Tennessee now, the second wave they have been talking about which is supposed to produce the severe weather?

This isn't round 2.  I think this is just a batch of elevated convection.
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Offline gcbama

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2020, 01:35:57 PM »
This isn't round 2.  I think this is just a batch of elevated convection.

if it keeps up though and moves into mid tn it will inhibit destabilization I would think

Online Matthew

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2020, 01:39:47 PM »
if it keeps up though and moves into mid tn it will inhibit destabilization I would think
But it also could leave a boundary for fuel.

Online Eric

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2020, 01:47:16 PM »
if it keeps up though and moves into mid tn it will inhibit destabilization I would think

Yes....

But it also could leave a boundary for fuel.

....and yes.

However, the biggest severe threat is slated to be south of I-40 so I don't think this little batch of elevated convection (it's still well north of the warm front) will do much harm to the overall plan.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline gcbama

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2020, 02:09:08 PM »
interesting at 2pm there isn't a mesoscale discussion for our area yet

Offline BRUCE

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Re: 3/24/2020 Severe Threat
« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2020, 02:13:41 PM »
interesting at 2pm there isn't a mesoscale discussion for our area yet
yeah. I just checked that myself ... agree
Come on severe wx season...

 

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