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Author Topic: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak  (Read 13918 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2020, 12:43:26 PM »
I tweaked the thread title to reflect the shift of focus.

Serious flooding doesnít seem like such a concern as perhaps some severe weather.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

Offline andyhb

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2020, 01:01:32 PM »
W/Middle TN could get rather interesting tonight just looking at some of the progged RAP/HRRR soundings. What we have is a juxtaposition of very cold air aloft (500 mb temps approaching -20˚C) with resulting fat CAPE profiles despite somewhat marginal low level thermos, and very strong deep layer shear favoring long-lived supercells with very large hail.

Tornado potential is a bit more unclear, especially if the degree of cooling after dark sets in too quickly (or should moisture underperform somewhat). I wouldn't trust this in Dixie. Low level helicity rapidly increases post-00z with a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ and near southerly surface winds. Should we still have discrete, surface based cells by 01-02z, I would not be shocked to see a tornado or two (perhaps even a strong tornado) given favorable low level shear and considerable 0-3 km CAPE.
Dynamic upper level troughs with adequate warm sector instabilityô


Offline Matthew

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2020, 02:14:23 PM »
W/Middle TN could get rather interesting tonight just looking at some of the progged RAP/HRRR soundings. What we have is a juxtaposition of very cold air aloft (500 mb temps approaching -20˚C) with resulting fat CAPE profiles despite somewhat marginal low level thermos, and very strong deep layer shear favoring long-lived supercells with very large hail.

Tornado potential is a bit more unclear, especially if the degree of cooling after dark sets in too quickly (or should moisture underperform somewhat). I wouldn't trust this in Dixie. Low level helicity rapidly increases post-00z with a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ and near southerly surface winds. Should we still have discrete, surface based cells by 01-02z, I would not be shocked to see a tornado or two (perhaps even a strong tornado) given favorable low level shear and considerable 0-3 km CAPE.

Thank you Andy for your input.  When you speak I listen.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2020, 02:26:45 PM »
Thank you Andy for your input.  When you speak I listen.
need listen all time . Be honest . Lol

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
How I learned ...
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2020, 03:06:59 PM »
need listen all time . Be honest . Lol

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
How I learned ...

Bruce I do listen.  I just donít listen to predictions 2 weeks away or a month away.

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2020, 03:10:50 PM »
Bruce I do listen.  I just donít listen to predictions 2 weeks away or a month away.

4 days out is about when I start paying attention to a "potential" weather threat...:)

Offline Eric

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2020, 03:31:19 PM »
need listen all time . Be honest . Lol

Post Merge: March 02, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
How I learned ...

My man needs to learn about prepositions.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2020, 04:14:56 PM »
First meso out over northeast Arkansas...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2020, 04:33:50 PM »
initiation is a bit slower than I thought, but a new cell just popped up south of henderson

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #24 on: March 02, 2020, 04:36:15 PM »
initiation is a bit slower than I thought, but a new cell just popped up south of henderson
latest hrr has slowed the timing down bit
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2020, 04:54:13 PM »
this is where I think I differ from most.....while the event is underway is when I don't pay attention to models, I feel it's time to radar watch snd see the event unfold....as an honest question am I wrong? lol

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2020, 05:06:43 PM »
this is where I think I differ from most.....while the event is underway is when I don't pay attention to models, I feel it's time to radar watch snd see the event unfold....as an honest question am I wrong? lol
nope...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2020, 05:28:47 PM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 35
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   520 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of
     Northern Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Southwestern Indiana
     Western Kentucky
     Southeastern Missouri
     Northwestern Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning from 520 PM
     until 100 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should develop and increase in coverage and
   intensity through the evening over the watch area, with commensurate
   increase in mainly large-hail potential in a favorable supercell
   environment.  Tornadoes are possible, however, along with isolated
   severe gusts.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   either side of a line from 45 miles south of Harrison AR to
   Owensboro KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
   associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2020, 06:13:59 PM »
Cells in southern Missouri getting their act together last 30 minutes
Come on severe wx season...

Offline NismoWx

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2020, 06:37:27 PM »
« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 07:31:58 PM by NismoWx, Reason: Link fail »

 

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