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Author Topic: March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak  (Read 20117 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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March 3, 2020 Tornado Outbreak
« on: February 29, 2020, 06:32:16 AM »
Making the call to go ahead and kick off a thread. This will obviously exasperate the ongoing issue of high-running rivers in the region.

Hydrologic outlook from OHX:

Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

...Heavy Rain and Flooding Possible Sunday Night through
Wednesday...

Significantly above normal rainfall amounts have been
experienced across Middle Tennessee this year. As of this
morning, Nashville International Airport is around 8 inches above
normal and Crossville Memorial Airport is more than 9 inches
above normal.

The next wave of potentially heavy rainfall will be from Sunday
night through Wednesday of next week. It looks like the heaviest
bands of rainfall could produce five to seven inches of rainfall,
but there is still a significant amount of uncertainty where that
band will set up. For other locations across the mid state, at
least 2 to 3 inches of rainfall accumulation during this time
frame is expected. The bulk of this rainfall is expected Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

These forecast rainfall amounts, combined with already saturated
ground conditions, will likely lead to flooding along rivers,
creeks, streams, roadways, low lying areas, and other poor
drainage locations by Tuesday evening and last through the rest of
the week.

Residents throughout Middle Tennessee should continue to closely
monitor latest forecasts concerning heavy rainfall and flood
potential this weekend. For latest forecast updates and river
forecasts, visit our website at weather.gov/nashville.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 05:11:48 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2020, 06:51:26 AM »
MRX:
Quote
A slow moving weather system will begin to affect the region
Monday with rain spreading into the area. Tuesday and Wednesday
will see continued rainfall, some potentially heavy. There could
be flooding across the area by midweek, especially where the
heaviest rains are expected over the Cumberland Plateau, southeast
Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.

Offline cliftown04

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2020, 07:18:49 AM »
Once again it will be very interesting to see where those heavy rain bands set up. It is always interesting to me the media coverage a dusting of snow can get, but flooding threats seem ho-hum. I think it will take very little rain in a short amount of time to get local creeks out of their banks once again.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2020, 07:29:35 AM »
Once again it will be very interesting to see where those heavy rain bands set up. It is always interesting to me the media coverage a dusting of snow can get, but flooding threats seem ho-hum. I think it will take very little rain in a short amount of time to get local creeks out of their banks once again.
well agree.  Some saying in the weather world that this spring flooding could even be biblical... pretty stout words
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2020, 02:22:43 PM »
Euro backs waaaaay off on precip totals across the state over the next 10 days. Looks like heavier rains are well further south.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 02:54:13 PM »
Euro backs waaaaay off on precip totals across the state over the next 10 days. Looks like heavier rains are well further south.
I was wondering why MRX didnít issue any sort of hyrdologic outlook or HWO today. This must be the reason. The GFS and the Canadian are also trying to move the heavy rains south, but they both still have heavy totals in SE TN. Much less in middle and western though.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 04:33:02 PM »
I was wondering why MRX didnít issue any sort of hyrdologic outlook or HWO today. This must be the reason. The GFS and the Canadian are also trying to move the heavy rains south, but they both still have heavy totals in SE TN. Much less in middle and western though.
meg. Still going with areas of 5 inches rain with some even isolated higher totals next week
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2020, 05:19:28 PM »
Euro backs waaaaay off on precip totals across the state over the next 10 days. Looks like heavier rains are well further south.

Noticed the 12z GFS did the same thing.  Trend?  I have noticed that during these heavy rain scenarios the main axis does move around a bit.  Hopefully that crap stays south.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 08:20:16 PM »
Those model trends have influenced the wording of the latest hydrologic outlook, saying now 1-2" of rain over much of the region with 3-5" in southern counties.

That's not as concerning as the 5-7" suggested earlier, but it will still reinforce river rises.

Quote
Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
325 PM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

...Heavy Rain and Flooding Possible Monday into Wednesday...

An approaching storm will bring widespread rain to Middle
Tennessee beginning Sunday night and continuing into at least
Wednesday.

Heavy rain is possible...though not certain...on Monday and
Tuesday. Much of the region should receive at least 1 to 2
inches of rain. However, there is potential for an area of 3 to 5
inches to occur. The most likely location for this to happen is
across the southern counties of Middle Tennessee but this could
change in the next two days.

Most of the mid state had well above average rainfall over the
past 2 months. If very heavy rain occurs Monday into Wednesday,
flooding may occur along rivers, creeks, roads and low lying
areas.

Middle Tennessee residents should monitor the latest forecasts
concerning the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding over the
next few days. For the latest forecast updates and river
forecasts, visit our website at weather.gov/nashville.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 09:12:08 PM »
I've noticed that these stationary/stalled boundaries almost always wind up further south than initially modeled. I won't be surprised if the heavy rain winds up south of I-20 at this point.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2020, 07:10:44 AM »
A slight risk of severe storms has been introduced for the west half of the state today.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day1otlk_20200302_1200.html

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2020, 08:17:09 AM »
A slight risk of severe storms has been introduced for the west half of the state today.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day1otlk_20200302_1200.html

looks like some wind gusts and hail could be on it's way, with as much rain as we had it won't take much to knock over a few trees today

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2020, 10:44:27 AM »
Wow. They hatched our Hail threat 15 percent ... upped the winds  15 percent. Tornado went up to 5 percent ... I didnít see that coming be honest. Though nam was bit higher on instability
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2020, 11:04:41 AM »
Wow. They hatched our Hail threat 15 percent ... upped the winds  15 percent. Tornado went up to 5 percent ... I didnít see that coming be honest. Though nam was bit higher on instability

lol I noticed that too and posted in the march thread by accident lol....

Offline BRUCE

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Re: March 3, 2020 Tornado
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2020, 11:44:11 AM »
Latest hrr interesting ... 60 t dbz. Could see some significant hail later
Come on severe wx season...

 

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