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Author Topic: A Severe and Waterlogged Valentine (Feb 10th-13th Severe Weather and Flooding)  (Read 868 times)

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Offline StormNine

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The WPC has a Moderate Risk out for flooding for Southern parts of the state and the SPC has 2/12 highlighted for severe weather. 


These two events combined lead to the creation of a thread.   
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 09:50:18 AM by StormNine »

Offline mamMATTus

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Was coming here to say the Reed Timmer hype train is already running strong this morning for Wednesday, but maybe I stand corrected.

Offline dwagner88

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While the snow yesterday was much appreciated, it certainly didnt help lower our flash flood guidance. This week may present a greater flooding threat than last February in this area.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Online cliftown04

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Im wondering if the river forecasts that are found on NOAA are based on current river conditions or already figure in upcoming precipitation. This upcoming pattern has me very worried about the Tennessee River.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Im wondering if the river forecasts that are found on NOAA are based on current river conditions or already figure in upcoming precipitation. This upcoming pattern has me very worried about the Tennessee River.
They include precipitation for the next 48 hours.

Offline gcbama

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so interesting that for several years now higher probs for severe weather remain cutoff to the state line....

Offline Sbeagles

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They include precipitation for the next 48 hours.
I was just wondering about this same question. Current forecast at Perryville is 373.76' with it still rising at the end of the projection. Last year we got to 378.2'.

Offline cbrentv318

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Online cliftown04

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I guess if I had any major interests along the Tennessee River I would plan on it reaching last years levels based on the current projections and forecast. It is amazing that we will be right at or near record levels two straight years.

Offline Matthew

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If the models are right.  Add another 7-8 to these areas the next 10 days and we might just have record levels.  If happens I could see schools out again this week.

Offline dwagner88

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If the models are right.  Add another 7-8 to these areas the next 10 days and we might just have record levels.  If happens I could see schools out again this week.
Honestly, with the ground as saturated as it is, a poorly timed training cell could shut down schools at this point. Nowhere for the water to go.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline StormNine

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That line over the Cumberland Plateau has produced some widespread strong to severe thunderstorm gusts.  I could see a situation where the dynamics may carry at least some severe threat through East TN despite very little instability. 

Offline cgauxknox

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That line over the Cumberland Plateau has produced some widespread strong to severe thunderstorm gusts.  I could see a situation where the dynamics may carry at least some severe threat through East TN despite very little instability.

Knox County just came into the warning for that line so we'll see how well it holds together.

Offline gcbama

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Knox County just came into the warning for that line so we'll see how well it holds together.

In southern middle Tennessee on highway 412 large trees all over the road as I was traveling, it almost looked like a microburst occurred

 

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