* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: February 2020  (Read 34935 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,649
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 147
Re: February 2020
« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2020, 03:56:06 PM »
Going to be hard (but not impossible) to squeeze enough arctic air out these upcoming possible events. Look at the anomalies in our cold source region. Well above average. Artic air has just been locked up over Alaska this winter with an uncooperative AO.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1220803039826759684

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,728
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2061
Re: February 2020
« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2020, 04:33:59 PM »
Going to be hard (but not impossible) to squeeze enough arctic air out these upcoming possible events. Look at the anomalies in our cold source region. Well above average. Artic air has just been locked up over Alaska this winter with an uncooperative AO.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1220803039826759684
at this point I love just to see a big heavy wet snow fall ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mamMATTus

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,172
  • Location: Hermitage/Mt Juliet
  • Stormwater Inspector
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 113
Re: February 2020
« Reply #17 on: January 25, 2020, 11:14:30 AM »
Last night's Euro & 12z GFS have both gone further south with next weekend's system. Suppression?

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 52
  • Location: Johnson City, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: February 2020
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2020, 11:45:43 AM »
I am no weather expert but it appears to me the first 10 days of February are snowless with average to above average temps. It seems the pattern continues to keep the cold air in Alaska and the lows form in Texas and ride up through Indiana. It looks like we may have two totally warm and wet winters in a row. Someone tell me I am seeing it wrong


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,123
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 363
February 2020
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2020, 12:27:48 PM »
The amount of cold air entering the continental US in the long range on all ensembles is just staggering.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2020, 12:31:32 PM by Curt »

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 52
  • Location: Johnson City, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: February 2020
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2020, 12:40:00 PM »
I assume this cold makes it down to Tennessee. Hopefully if that happens the timing can hook up with a-gulf low. When does the cold start showing up in the long range


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,728
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2061
Re: February 2020
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2020, 12:40:27 PM »
The amount of cold air entering the continental US in the long range on all ensembles is just staggering.

yeah something has to give ...interesting, see we can get it east of the Rockies
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,123
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 363
Re: February 2020
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2020, 12:41:52 PM »
I assume this cold makes it down to Tennessee. Hopefully if that happens the timing can hook up with a-gulf low. When does the cold start showing up in the long range


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Itís going to come south- just how far is anyoneís guess. The MJO will be more cooperative at that time. Itís certainly got some potential to ooze south and hook up with the southern stream. Just where is the question.

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 52
  • Location: Johnson City, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: February 2020
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2020, 12:48:01 PM »
The storm I thought might have some potential for next weekend now looks like a total bust. Way to far south and no cold air even it it moves farther north


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Beth

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,386
  • Location: Dickson
  • Snowbird
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1551
Re: February 2020
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2020, 03:20:12 PM »
The storm I thought might have some potential for next weekend now looks like a total bust. Way to far south and no cold air even it it moves farther north


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yes, right now the temps are just mediocre.  Hopefully that will change.  Hopefully it will snow a Foot on my Birthday Feb 15th.   ;D

Offline Michael

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 755
  • Location: Russellville, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 509
Re: February 2020
« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2020, 06:11:09 PM »
Interesting that 18z GFS has the next weekend storm up in New England with a 958mb . For reference, Superstorm 93 lowest pressure was 960mb. Granted, this isnít as monstrous, but dang. Helluva Noríeaster though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,399
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 133
Re: February 2020
« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2020, 09:18:12 PM »
The amount of cold air entering the continental US in the long range on all ensembles is just staggering.


But does this honestly look promising? To me it looks like an extremely unfavorable setup with an eastern ridge and a western trough. Looks like a great setup for the northern plains. Not that they want to see snow. I canít imagine there are many winter scenarios with +10 temps in Wisconsin that result in snows in TN.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,123
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 363
Re: February 2020
« Reply #27 on: January 26, 2020, 10:21:49 AM »
But does this honestly look promising? To me it looks like an extremely unfavorable setup with an eastern ridge and a western trough. Looks like a great setup for the northern plains. Not that they want to see snow. I canít imagine there are many winter scenarios with +10 temps in Wisconsin that result in snows in TN.

Well itís one point in time. Last nights euro control dumped the arctic air directly into the middle of the country. Lots of moving parts and with the potential PV disruption, thereís going to be some wild runs. Hereís last nights euro control for the same period as the quoted pic.


Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,376
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 598
Re: February 2020
« Reply #28 on: January 26, 2020, 10:54:20 AM »
I believe the wild runs have started....


[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline JHart

  • TNWX Supporter
  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ******
  • Posts: 477
  • Location: Lascassas (NE Rutherford County)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 138
Re: February 2020
« Reply #29 on: January 26, 2020, 12:26:01 PM »
I believe the wild runs have started....


Holy not-gonna-happen, Batman!
Hire the left-handed --- its fun to watch them write.

 

* Recent Posts

April 2020
by schneitzeit
[Today at 05:06:58 PM]
2020 Tropical Season Outlook
by BRUCE
[Today at 03:50:46 PM]

Advertisement