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Author Topic: February 2020  (Read 57338 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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February 2020
« on: January 23, 2020, 07:23:55 AM »
Long range forecasts are getting into February now. So, discussion about weather in the upcoming month should take place here.

So, what will it be- more of the same or does Winter have a second half comeback in store for us?

Offline BRUCE

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2020, 07:26:49 AM »
Long range forecasts are getting into February now. So, discussion about weather in the upcoming month should take place here.

So, what will it be- more of the same or does Winter have a second half comeback in store for us?
thanks for starting the February thread . Cause January is dead ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2020, 11:12:59 AM »
I feel like the 31st-8th time frame is going to set the tone for Feb. Not that we can't score a big event in late feb or early march, but it's gets tougher at that point in the season for it all too come together. I like the looks so far as we head into late Jan and Feb at the moment. That system in the 31st-1st time frame still looks interesting to me at the moment. Hopefully we can all get a good winter system or 2 before spring. Still cautiously optimistic that we get something to track over the next 2 weeks. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline gcbama

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2020, 11:35:31 AM »
it looks to be an active pattern....but here lately the storm usually comes 24-36 hours too late or too early....case in point we just wasted 3 days of actual REAL arctic air ,and the day after the cold air leaves...here comes the moisture

Hopefully in feb we can get at least ONE meeting of moisture and cold air :)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2020, 11:42:19 AM »
it looks to be an active pattern....but here lately the storm usually comes 24-36 hours too late or too early....case in point we just wasted 3 days of actual REAL arctic air ,and the day after the cold air leaves...here comes the moisture

Hopefully in feb we can get at least ONE meeting of moisture and cold air :)
agree... 12 z gfs is loaded with systems , and most of them take s good track for us to see at least rain change over to snow ... but temps still marginal . Hopefully things can change
Come on severe wx season...

Offline TNHunter

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2020, 07:49:39 AM »
Guess I'm not seeing it?  I'm not seeing much for winter weather activity end of January into early February.  Hopefully I am wrong, would be nice to get one decent event before mid February where hopefully our temps will be mid 60s and sunny for a while!

Offline Eric

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2020, 07:59:56 AM »
The southern stream is loaded but the temperatures needed for winter are still locked up around the upper Midwest.  I say that, but the temps we're seeing now are climatologically normal.  The 0z Euro show a storm next weekend that carries potential (obvious disclaimer attached).  GFS doesn't even have a storm, so there's that.  At least it's something to watch.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2020, 08:18:22 AM »
The southern stream is loaded but the temperatures needed for winter are still locked up around the upper Midwest.  I say that, but the temps we're seeing now are climatologically normal.  The 0z Euro show a storm next weekend that carries potential (obvious disclaimer attached).  GFS doesn't even have a storm, so there's that.  At least it's something to watch.
yep...!that storm on euro phases just bit earlier . Itís going be a monster of a apps runner .most of West and middle Tennessee would get hammered ...  ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline dwagner88

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2020, 08:25:12 AM »
I feel like the 31st-8th time frame is going to set the tone for Feb. Not that we can't score a big event in late feb or early march, but it's gets tougher at that point in the season for it all too come together. I like the looks so far as we head into late Jan and Feb at the moment. That system in the 31st-1st time frame still looks interesting to me at the moment. Hopefully we can all get a good winter system or 2 before spring. Still cautiously optimistic that we get something to track over the next 2 weeks. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
I've had more snow after Valentine's day in the last 10 years than any other winter period. It doesn't last long that time of year, but it has been the most productive for this area.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25Ē

Offline Eric

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2020, 08:29:14 AM »
yep...!that storm on euro phases just bit earlier . Itís going be a monster of a apps runner .most of West and middle Tennessee would get hammered ...  ::coffee::

As it sits, I'll be happy with it...3-4" bullseye right over the homestead.  The HP is in a good enough spot, but isn't reeallll strong (1019mb).  Sixteen hours previous, another system tries to push through but gets slogged down.  I'm willing to bet that's the reason the low doesn't pull northward.  We'll see.  Next run it may be gone.

UPDATE:  12z GFS now has it.  And she's such a beaut.  Only problem?  200 hours out. 

12z GFS -


0z Euro -


Digging a bit further, here is a 12z GFS skew-T for BNA at the same time as the above map -


35 effing degrees.  Just a few miles westward, it's 33F.  That's hilarious. 
« Last Edit: January 24, 2020, 10:37:12 AM by Eric »
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Offline justinmundie

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2020, 10:36:28 AM »
Too bad there isn't just a hair more cold air on the day 9 storm. Could be a decent one all the way to NOLA if so.

If I had to guess though, dynamic cooling would take over. Euro's precipitation field doesn't make much sense though. I'll take Euro strength and GFS Precip please.
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline gcbama

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2020, 10:42:36 AM »
As it sits, I'll be happy with it...3-4" bullseye right over the homestead.  The HP is in a good enough spot, but isn't reeallll strong (1019mb).  Sixteen hours previous, another system tries to push through but gets slogged down.  I'm willing to bet that's the reason the low doesn't pull northward.  We'll see.  Next run it may be gone.

UPDATE:  12z GFS now has it.  And she's such a beaut.  Only problem?  200 hours out. 

12z GFS -


0z Euro -


Digging a bit further, here is a 12z GFS skew-T for BNA at the same time as the above map -


35 effing degrees.  Just a few miles westward, it's 33F.  That's hilarious.

LOL no matter what we are always 2-3 degrees to warm....I cannot remember the last acuumulation I got when it wasn't below freezing....pretty much hardly ever happens , yet I see so many other areas across the country get accumulations at 34 and 35 degrees....

Offline BRUCE

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2020, 10:58:37 AM »
As it sits, I'll be happy with it...3-4" bullseye right over the homestead.  The HP is in a good enough spot, but isn't reeallll strong (1019mb).  Sixteen hours previous, another system tries to push through but gets slogged down.  I'm willing to bet that's the reason the low doesn't pull northward.  We'll see.  Next run it may be gone.

UPDATE:  12z GFS now has it.  And she's such a beaut.  Only problem?  200 hours out. 

12z GFS -


0z Euro - 


Digging a bit further, here is a 12z GFS skew-T for BNA at the same time as the above map -


35 effing degrees.  Just a few miles westward, it's 33F.  That's hilarious.
you would think there would be a bigger sheild of heavy wet wrap around snow behind that strong slp...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2020, 11:17:37 AM »
The 12z GFS is close to glory the whole run. Starting with next weeks system. A little bit of everything. Couple of App Runners, a Miller A and a Arctic front.

Offline gcbama

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Re: February 2020
« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2020, 11:28:38 AM »
you would think there would be a bigger sheild of heavy wet wrap around snow behind that strong slp...

bruce you know that is my DREAM scenario a s/w to n/e moving low from Jackson ms up to Chattanooga with massive north and northwest wraparound snow...I always feel like that is what has given us our best accumulations :)....just need a little colder air :) lol

 

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