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Author Topic: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020  (Read 8416 times)

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Online bugalou

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #60 on: January 11, 2020, 11:35:30 AM »
Starting to see damage photos in Olive Branch. House damage in the Bethel Park area sure looks like at least EF1. That tornado looks like it might have been on the ground for a few miles too.

Almost for certain it was just south of me.  I cannot visually confirm anything but it has that same roaring sound as when I saw the tornado on Super Tuesday in Southaven.   The debris ball came less than a mile from my house at its closest point.  Scary and you suddenly don't like severe weather when its that close to  your home.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #61 on: January 11, 2020, 11:55:32 AM »
Guess what? No HTX radar. Business as usual. I’m actually in Huntsville today for a party. Having to use OHX for now.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #62 on: January 11, 2020, 02:53:52 PM »
From Sevier County EMA:

Update on the Raven Den Fire in Wears Valley as of 1415. The fire is approximately 60 acres in size with zero percent containment at this time. Mountain winds are expected to be 25-45 mph with gusts over 80 mph expected throughout the evening. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina until 9pm. Damage assessment is ongoing. A shelter has been opened at the Pigeon Forge Community Center for anyone that has been affected.

Dudley Creek Bypass, Ridge Road and Baskins Creek Bypass are currently shut down in all directions due to downed trees and power lines. Please use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.

The National Park Service has also closed Highway 441 to Cherokee, Little River Road and the Gatlinburg Bypass due to high winds and downed treesPlease use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #63 on: January 11, 2020, 05:10:04 PM »
Quote
TNC025-067-112330-
/O.CON.KMRX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200111T2330Z/
Claiborne TN-Hancock TN-
604 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 603 PM EST, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles northeast of
Tazewell, or 13 miles west of Sneedville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Claiborne and northwestern Hancock Counties.

Still going in East TN.  Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Wears Valley area where the fire is at. 

Online bugalou

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #64 on: January 11, 2020, 05:54:49 PM »
Tweet of loop of CC TDS from Desoto this morning: https://twitter.com/DanielGafford/status/1215954446833811456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I was sheltered with my family and noticed this due south of where Radarscope had my GPS position at.  Talk about hairs standing up on the back of you neck.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #65 on: January 11, 2020, 08:41:03 PM »
The squall line/serial derecho is still going in the Carolinas.  This storm proves that if you are dynamic enough and can at least generate a suitable moisture return then you can rock a pretty potent cool-season event. Today had a lot of 3/1/2017 comparisons to it although TN as a whole didn't get hit quite as hard today as it did on that day.   

Post Merge: January 11, 2020, 08:41:52 PM
Tweet of loop of CC TDS from Desoto this morning: https://twitter.com/DanielGafford/status/1215954446833811456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I was sheltered with my family and noticed this due south of where Radarscope had my GPS position at.  Talk about hairs standing up on the back of you neck.

That was a close call.   

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #66 on: January 11, 2020, 08:51:12 PM »
From Sevier County EMA:

Update on the Raven Den Fire in Wears Valley as of 1415. The fire is approximately 60 acres in size with zero percent containment at this time. Mountain winds are expected to be 25-45 mph with gusts over 80 mph expected throughout the evening. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina until 9pm. Damage assessment is ongoing. A shelter has been opened at the Pigeon Forge Community Center for anyone that has been affected.

Dudley Creek Bypass, Ridge Road and Baskins Creek Bypass are currently shut down in all directions due to downed trees and power lines. Please use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.

The National Park Service has also closed Highway 441 to Cherokee, Little River Road and the Gatlinburg Bypass due to high winds and downed treesPlease use caution while driving in all areas and we will post notification when those roads reopen.
I can’t believe that anything could burn as wet as it’s been. How did this fire start?
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline Curt

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #67 on: January 12, 2020, 05:51:35 PM »

Online bugalou

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #68 on: January 13, 2020, 11:54:43 AM »


Just saw this.  Way too close to home.  This was even more close than I was super Tuesday. 
I am glad no one was hurt.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #69 on: January 13, 2020, 02:53:21 PM »
I saw today that an EF2 tornado struck a town 30 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC.

This January outbreak has to be pretty historic. This makes, what, nine different states that reported tornadoes?

Eight lives were lost as well. Winter outbreaks are so treacherous; people are least likely to expect powerful thunderstorms in mid-January, but when they strike, they are often rain-wrapped and nocturnal, especially in the Southeastern U.S.

Factoring in 1) higher population density and 2) mobile home residencies, the Southeast experiences deadlier outbreaks than the Plains do. Tornadoes can strike in our neck of the woods pretty much any time of the year, with the high summer and early autumn being the most rare time for them to occur.
.

Online bugalou

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #70 on: January 13, 2020, 03:01:27 PM »
I saw today that an EF2 tornado struck a town 30 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC.

This January outbreak has to be pretty historic. This makes, what, nine different states that reported tornadoes?

Eight lives were lost as well. Winter outbreaks are so treacherous; people are least likely to expect powerful thunderstorms in mid-January, but when they strike, they are often rain-wrapped and nocturnal, especially in the Southeastern U.S.

Factoring in 1) higher population density and 2) mobile home residencies, the Southeast experiences deadlier outbreaks than the Plains do. Tornadoes can strike in our neck of the woods pretty much any time of the year, with the high summer and early autumn being the most rare time for them to occur.

And someone on reddit was trying to argue with me saying the SPC "busted hard" on Friday/Saturday.  I have no idea what they were talking about.  Though he claimed to be a "storm chaser" so was an obvious expert and knew way more than I did for sure.  ::)

Offline Eric

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #71 on: January 13, 2020, 03:07:31 PM »
I saw today that an EF2 tornado struck a town 30 miles west of Myrtle Beach, SC.

This January outbreak has to be pretty historic. This makes, what, nine different states that reported tornadoes?

Eight lives were lost as well. Winter outbreaks are so treacherous; people are least likely to expect powerful thunderstorms in mid-January, but when they strike, they are often rain-wrapped and nocturnal, especially in the Southeastern U.S.

Factoring in 1) higher population density and 2) mobile home residencies, the Southeast experiences deadlier outbreaks than the Plains do. Tornadoes can strike in our neck of the woods pretty much any time of the year, with the high summer and early autumn being the most rare time for them to occur.

Bingo.  Found this data while completing my undergrad "thesis".  Maybe someone will find it interesting.

Quote
-Manufactured or mobile homes represent a fast growing portion of the US housing market.  Data retrieved from the United States Census Bureau (2013) indicated mobile homes accounted for 6.5% of total housing within the US, and in some localized areas, they accounted for 32.0% (Farmington, NM) and 29% (Yuma, AZ) of total housing, yet only a small percentage either contain or have access to a safe room or storm shelter.  Calculations performed by Merrell et al., (2006), indicate that tornado shelters provide cost-effective protection for residents of mobile homes.

-According to Storm Prediction Center Annual Killer Tornado Statistics (2016), 962 tornadic deaths have occurred since 2008.  Of those 962 deaths, 62% occurred while the victim was in a home and 50% of those that were killed in a home were in a mobile home.  Some of the most dangerous and damaging tornadoes in the US occur across portions of the Southeast (Gagan, Gerard, & Gordon, 2010).  According to a 2011 American Housing Survey, there are almost three million manufactured homes across the Deep South (Furman, 2012).  A large percentage of these homes do not have safe rooms available, and that presents a huge problem.

-About 35% of manufactured homes are located in parks nationally.

-The growing mobile home tornado problem has received considerable attention from scholars and has led to proposals to mandate installation of tornado shelters in mobile home parks (Simmons & Sutter, 2007b) and promoted the passing of the Federal Tornado Shelters Act, which provides a basis for grant funds in tornado-prone areas (Niederkrotenthaler et al., 2013) that can be used to build community shelters in manufactured mobile home parks.

-According to compiled data from a 2011 American Housing Survey report, 4.5% of Americans live in manufactured housing and in the bottom income quartile that number jumps up to 11.6% (Furman, 2014).  This data is supported by Yarnal and Aman (2009) as they argue that manufactured housing presents an affordable housing solution to owners with significantly lower incomes.  The shortage of available storm shelter options within manufactured housing is clearly a manifestation of resident and homeowner’s available income, as they cannot afford the luxury. 

-It has been estimated that more than 25% of people living in manufactured housing subsist only on Social Security benefits (Furman, 2014), and there is reason to theorize that inadequate and unsafe manufactured housing is home to a relatively large number of disabled individuals (Furman, 2014).  The increasing population of elderly and disabled residing in mobile homes is contributing to the numbers of the unfortunate that are killed annually during storm season.  During the April 27, 2011 tornado event, 16.5% of the injured were aged greater than 65 (Niederkrotenthaler et al., 2014).  Between the years 1990 and 2001, data compiled by Merrell et al, (2006) indicates that 595 individuals were killed by tornadoes.  Nearly 50% of those were aged 50 and older.


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Offline Curt

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #72 on: January 13, 2020, 07:32:11 PM »
The more pics I see from Lewisburg/ Olive Branch area, the more I think that was almost an EF3 tornado. Have to admit, my guard is usually down for QLCS spawned tornadoes, but they have wreaked havoc this year around here.

Online bugalou

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #73 on: January 13, 2020, 08:22:54 PM »
The more pics I see from Lewisburg/ Olive Branch area, the more I think that was almost an EF3 tornado. Have to admit, my guard is usually down for QLCS spawned tornadoes, but they have wreaked havoc this year around here.
Same.  I was up watching the storms and started to notice the hook on it and some large rotation and figured my wx radio would be blaring soon.  Usually my family goes to me on what they do next.  I knew it was QLCS but just due to how close it would be to me I sent everyone into the closet we use for shelter. When I saw a debris ball though I was surprised.  Just not use to these producing like you said.

It will be interesting to see if this is further studied.  I was watching the line ahead of time and it was actually weakening some in Eastern AR along the river and was moving eastward extremely slowly.  Some storms fired ahead of the line and they seemed to draw the rest of the line east.  The tornados happened as these cells all merged and the line accelerated eastward.



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Offline Hank W

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #74 on: January 14, 2020, 09:50:24 AM »
Tornado track overlaid on Google Maps.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1tfYf9IOH9BlFh8swgmstK7qsc2d3dgdV&shorturl=1&ll=34.81566495118048%2C-89.97076204999996&z=11

This one is a great reminder that it just takes one. We all look at potential of a big time severe weather day and sometimes let that be the judgment factor of how serious of an event it will be. But as James Spann says, if the whole system produces one tornado and it's over your neighborhood it's your April 27th, 2011. Doesn't take a major outbreak to cause devastation over one area.

As I mentioned the other day I was not impressed with local media. When we had the TDS on radar, one station popped it up for a moment, almost seemed confused by it and quickly went back to reflectivity. I flipped through all stations and not one was honed in on the fact that it had become radar confirmed much less showing the CC product. That is a problem. I understand that the Baron Tornado Index is a nice tool, but throwing out a confirmed debris signature in favor of some algorithm that was indicating high numbers on every single cell is ridiculous. Watched a little of KATV Little Rock the day before and some of James Spann and those guys were on top of it.

Glad all were safe other than some poor horses at a barn in Lewisburg.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 12:17:33 PM by Hank W »

 

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