Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020

[wfrogge]

Hurricane Elvis part 2

[gcbama]

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 06:48:09 AMwinter cool severe season threat ... cape isn

[justinmundie]

The MDT upgrade was due to the threat of severe wind gusts.  Not much tornado-making, but there's gonna be some pretty severe wind damage along that line I'm willing to bet.  Will that translate to Mid TN tomorrow?  Not sure.

Didn

[gcbama]

Didn

[Eric]

Pretty neat description of a "cool-season" skew-T for those that are of inquiring minds.  (h/t @JackSillin)


Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 09:15:07 AM

[gcbama]

interesting that SPC has discussion for central Oklahoma well west of the moderate risk area talking about supercells/tornadoes...?

[wfrogge]

interesting that SPC has discussion for central Oklahoma well west of the moderate risk area talking about supercells/tornadoes...?

Noticed last night that surface obs were not in line with models. Dew points were in the 60s into OK at that time.... This system might dangerously over perform for west Tennessee.

Edit.....

Latest HRRR models show what might end up being pre-frontal storms across West and Central Arkansas. Lets hope that does not happen.

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[Eric]

First tornado watch of the day being discussed for SE Oklahoma as that area is becoming less and less capped. 

First TOR of the day...SE Oklahoma.  If you had that square, you win.

[Charles L.]

The prods on that OK TOR Watch are higher than I thought they would be...

[gcbama]

hmmmm we are now in hatched area tomorrow? cape must be forecast to increase a bit?

[justinmundie]

hmmmm we are now in hatched area tomorrow? cape must be forecast to increase a bit?

If you read the discos - seems everyone agrees that models are undergoing moisture return and WAA.

[Eric]

SPC:

Intense background
   flow fields and associated very large hodographs will support both
   the threat for severe gusts with bowing segments in the squall line
   and a conditional risk for tornadoes with any supercell managing to
   develop ahead of the squall line or with stronger mesovortices.

Risk was elevated due to severe winds and not tornadoes, specifically.  But increased Tds and WAA will undoubtedly elevate instability, too.

[gcbama]

really turning into a nasty squall out west

[StormNine]

There is now a MDT risk in Memphis with the Enhanced Risk almost to US 45 tonight/wee morning hours.

[Bruce]

really turning into a nasty squall out west

derecheo? Mmm