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Author Topic: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020  (Read 4788 times)

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Offline wfrogge

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2020, 07:40:18 AM »
Hurricane Elvis part 2

Offline gcbama

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2020, 08:07:58 AM »

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 06:48:09 AM
winter cool severe season threat ... cape isnít as critical as in a true spring time
Event...  that slp placement going be some rough winds just to the se  of it for sure ...

I agree...however you really do need at least 400 or so cape for a widespread event in cool season...parts of ms and alabama will be around the 700-800's and we will be lucky to get in the 300's, so it is a reduced threat for us compared to Bama and MS tomorrow that's just my thinking bruce :)

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2020, 08:29:57 AM »
The MDT upgrade was due to the threat of severe wind gusts.  Not much tornado-making, but there's gonna be some pretty severe wind damage along that line I'm willing to bet.  Will that translate to Mid TN tomorrow?  Not sure.

Didnít hatched tornado risk get moved up to Memphis?
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2020, 08:31:23 AM »
Didnít hatched tornado risk get moved up to Memphis?

you are correct...just by a hair Memphis is in the hatched 10%

Offline Eric

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2020, 08:39:38 AM »
Pretty neat description of a "cool-season" skew-T for those that are of inquiring minds.  (h/t @JackSillin)



Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 09:15:07 AM


« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 09:15:07 AM by Eric, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2020, 09:35:15 AM »
interesting that SPC has discussion for central Oklahoma well west of the moderate risk area talking about supercells/tornadoes...?

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2020, 10:19:16 AM »
interesting that SPC has discussion for central Oklahoma well west of the moderate risk area talking about supercells/tornadoes...?

Noticed last night that surface obs were not in line with models. Dew points were in the 60s into OK at that time.... This system might dangerously over perform for west Tennessee.

Edit.....

Latest HRRR models show what might end up being pre-frontal storms across West and Central Arkansas. Lets hope that does not happen.

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« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 10:28:08 AM by wfrogge »

Offline Eric

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #22 on: January 10, 2020, 10:26:39 AM »
First tornado watch of the day being discussed for SE Oklahoma as that area is becoming less and less capped. 

First TOR of the day...SE Oklahoma.  If you had that square, you win.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 10:31:07 AM by Eric »
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #23 on: January 10, 2020, 11:07:30 AM »
The prods on that OK TOR Watch are higher than I thought they would be...
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2020, 11:37:52 AM »
hmmmm we are now in hatched area tomorrow? cape must be forecast to increase a bit?

Offline justinmundie

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #25 on: January 10, 2020, 11:39:53 AM »
hmmmm we are now in hatched area tomorrow? cape must be forecast to increase a bit?

If you read the discos - seems everyone agrees that models are undergoing moisture return and WAA.
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Offline Eric

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #26 on: January 10, 2020, 02:13:02 PM »
SPC:
Quote
Intense background
   flow fields and associated very large hodographs will support both
   the threat for severe gusts with bowing segments in the squall line
   and a conditional risk for tornadoes with any supercell managing to
   develop ahead of the squall line or with stronger mesovortices.

Risk was elevated due to severe winds and not tornadoes, specifically.  But increased Tds and WAA will undoubtedly elevate instability, too.
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Offline gcbama

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #27 on: January 10, 2020, 04:19:08 PM »
really turning into a nasty squall out west

Offline StormNine

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #28 on: January 10, 2020, 04:56:56 PM »
There is now a MDT risk in Memphis with the Enhanced Risk almost to US 45 tonight/wee morning hours.

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Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #29 on: January 10, 2020, 05:16:52 PM »
really turning into a nasty squall out west
derecheo? Mmm
Come on severe wx season...

 

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