* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020  (Read 3765 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,423
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 899
Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« on: January 08, 2020, 07:02:53 AM »
Let's keep all relevant banter about this event here.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 707
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 444
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2020, 07:09:19 AM »
Whether the system goes severe or not we are looking at a record high for the day on Saturday in Knoxville if we get to the forecast high of 73.  With the rainfall on mostly saturated ground followed by days of rain in the following week water may be the long-term story of this sequence regardless.

Online BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,422
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1882
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2020, 07:37:12 AM »
Interesting system thatís for sure ... todayís runs be critical on more meso data  thatís going be important ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2020, 08:14:04 AM »
until something drastic changes  I am sticking with mainly ms/al getting the majority of the weather with possibly scattered severe warnings here...they will have more cape to deal with down there

Post Merge: January 08, 2020, 12:12:40 PM
really looking like tupelo to cullman and south of the 278 corridor in alabama will be the hot spot...things can change , but right now that's the way it looks

Post Merge: January 08, 2020, 04:01:30 PM
I just realized we are going on 8 years since the last high risk day in any part of tennessee
« Last Edit: January 08, 2020, 04:01:30 PM by gcbama, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline wfrogge

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 550
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2020, 11:57:20 PM »
Chasing pretty far south of our state line but I expect numerous tornado warnings for Tennessee starting early Saturday and going throughout the day. Hopefully it ejects quickly and gets out of our area faster than models are showing right now.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,420
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2278
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2020, 03:26:58 AM »
Latest SPC update only has the very far southern tip of TN in the slight risk zone for Saturday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline wfrogge

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 550
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2020, 07:51:01 AM »
Latest SPC update only has the very far southern tip of TN in the slight risk zone for Saturday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Its only day 3....

With the saturated ground and the crazy winds every model is showing we will have falling tree issues with the line at the very least.

Edit

Check this out


[ Guests cannot view attachments ]
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 08:40:35 AM by wfrogge »

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 707
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 444
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2020, 08:42:23 AM »
Its only day 3....

With the saturated ground and the crazy winds every model is showing we will have falling tree issues with the line at the very least.

It's a good thing my parents gave me a new chainsaw for my birthday last month; I've already used it this week after the wet ground finally got the best of a small, dead tree in our backyard.  Let's hope it doesn't get too much exercise on Sunday.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,340
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2020, 09:25:27 AM »
Looking less likely that the flooding threat will materialize. Globals have really backed off on qpf. I suspect they are sniffing out Gulf Coast convection robbing moisture return.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,423
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 899
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2020, 12:37:08 PM »
Day 2 MDT issued for a small portion of the ArkLaTex for tomorrow.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,269
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 573
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2020, 04:23:51 PM »
3k NAM

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2020, 04:39:04 PM »
3k NAM

(Attachment Link)

just not enough cape up here for widespread event I don't think

Offline Hunter_McDonald

  • Thunderstorm
  • ***
  • Posts: 208
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2020, 06:14:01 AM »



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Online BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,422
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1882
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2020, 06:45:47 AM »

Umm. Interesting ...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Post Merge: January 10, 2020, 06:48:09 AM
just not enough cape up here for widespread event I don't think
winter cool severe season threat ... cape isnít as critical as in a true spring time
Event...  that slp placement going be some rough winds just to the se  of it for sure ...
« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 06:48:09 AM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

  • IF THE NAM VERIFIES
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 14,423
  • Location: MTSU by day, Morrison by night
  • Call sign: KJ4IXE
    • My Blog...
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 899
Re: Deep South Severe Event - January 10-13 2020
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2020, 06:59:43 AM »
The MDT upgrade was due to the threat of severe wind gusts.  Not much tornado-making, but there's gonna be some pretty severe wind damage along that line I'm willing to bet.  Will that translate to Mid TN tomorrow?  Not sure.
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

 

* Recent Posts

January 2020 Discussion
by gcbama
[Today at 01:43:53 PM]
The official "no snow" rant thread
by bugalou
[January 20, 2020, 02:59:42 PM]
Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone Activity
by cgauxknox
[January 20, 2020, 01:24:14 PM]
MOVED: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008
by StormNine
[January 20, 2020, 10:47:22 AM]
MOVED: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
by StormNine
[January 20, 2020, 10:43:16 AM]

Advertisement