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Author Topic: January 2020 Discussion  (Read 42731 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #390 on: January 21, 2020, 07:37:46 PM »
No the GEFS is an ensemble not a single operational run. It’s purpose and resolution is complete different than operations runs- as is the EPS (Euro Ensemble) and Canadian Ensemble.
it does run 3 times daily correct?
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #391 on: January 21, 2020, 07:40:50 PM »
it does run 3 times daily correct?

GEFS and EPS run 4x’s. Canadian ensemble runs twice.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #392 on: January 22, 2020, 07:39:23 AM »
The GFS is trying to suggest that the precip Thursday could begin briefly as ZR. Doesn't take much of that to cause major issues.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25”

Offline Curt

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January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #393 on: January 22, 2020, 08:46:00 AM »
There’s good agreement on MJO and it’s progression now. Most every model does a quick loop-d- loop next week in low amplitude 5 or 6 before its march back into the middle of the COD. That should help push moderate colder air back into the central US by early February. We are going to have an active southern jet. Climo can still argue for some rather juicy systems that can use the cold air. If you want more winter like conditions, February will probably be more conducive than January- as is the norm around these parts as of late.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2020, 09:27:33 AM by Curt »

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #394 on: January 22, 2020, 09:30:04 AM »
There’s good agreement on MJO and it’s progression now. Most every model does a quick loop-d- loop next week in low amplitude 5 or 6 before its march back into the middle of the COD. That should help push moderate colder air back into the central US by early February. We are going to have an active southern jet. Climo can still argue for some rather juicy systems that can use the cold air. If you want more winter like conditions, February will probably be more conducive than January- as is the norm around these parts as of late.

I'm interested to see what drives the pattern come first part of Feb and how it plays out. All teleconnections seem to be going neutralish, except AO it is still positive. I'm also shocked the PV has remained as strong as it is, that is very unusual for low solar years.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #395 on: January 22, 2020, 11:17:39 AM »
End of month system looks interesting to me. Right now looks like a miller a type effecting more of east tn. But there is time for that system to have a nw trend to it. I like the look at 9-10 days out. Just something I think bears watching especially for east tn at the moment. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #396 on: January 22, 2020, 11:20:45 AM »
End of month system looks interesting to me. Right now looks like a miller a type effecting more of east tn. But there is time for that system to have a nw trend to it. I like the look at 9-10 days out. Just something I think bears watching especially for east tn at the moment. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
ensembles of Gfs has this a major apps runner ... get enough cold air things could get interesting last of this month which I have been honking about . ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #397 on: January 22, 2020, 11:23:01 AM »
This week's cold weather is more sustained than what was forecasted. A few days ago, local mets expected my area to see temperatures cresting 50 by today, but now we aren't expected to get above 45. We may not even hit the 50s until early next week. Finally, we have returned to what is daytime average- though the nighttime lows will be a little warmer than average.

Post Merge: January 22, 2020, 11:28:56 AM
ensembles of Gfs has this a major apps runner ... get enough cold air things could get interesting last of this month which I have been honking about . ::coffee::

Um... No you haven't "been honking about" this. All due respect, Bruce, none of your recent posts have suggested anything like that. In fact, you've shrugged off other posts indicating that a more wintry pattern will be in the cards for us.

Come on man, I'm not trying to be a jerk, but I do believe you're just making things up  ::pondering::
« Last Edit: January 22, 2020, 11:28:56 AM by schneitzeit, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #398 on: January 22, 2020, 11:38:44 AM »
This week's cold weather is more sustained than what was forecasted. A few days ago, local mets expected my area to see temperatures cresting 50 by today, but now we aren't expected to get above 45. We may not even hit the 50s until early next week. Finally, we have returned to what is daytime average- though the nighttime lows will be a little warmer than average.

Post Merge: January 22, 2020, 11:28:56 AM
Um... No you haven't "been honking about" this. All due respect, Bruce, none of your recent posts have suggested anything like that. In fact, you've shrugged off other posts indicating that a more wintry pattern will be in the cards for us.

Come on man, I'm not trying to be a jerk, but I do believe you're just making things up  ::pondering::
either u have a very short memory or you r being a jerk... go back n read.  I say period January 25 th to February 8th holds some winter potential...  just read back  . Jesus
Come on severe wx season...

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #399 on: January 22, 2020, 11:41:44 AM »
So does anybody have a recommendation for a good weather forum?  If I want middle school kind of drama I'm sure I can stream something from the CW....
 ::bangingheadintowall::  ::rant::  ::bangingheadintowall::  ::rant::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #400 on: January 22, 2020, 11:54:39 AM »
Time frame January 25th to February 7th roughly has my interest, with the pna and ao nao look to go neutral at least .alo tonhelp will be mjo looks to be in phase 8... this couldnand more likely going be our best shot to score a winter storm outside some suprise shot later... southern jet looks stay very active during this time. Keep fingers crossed friends ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Scot

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #401 on: January 22, 2020, 11:55:13 AM »
pattern really don’t look to good for anyone east of Rockies  for winter ... even the northeast  is far behind snowfall averages

Bruce, maybe you thought you posted this on another forum?

Post Merge: January 22, 2020, 11:58:48 AM
that would be American wx my friend.

Bruce, this one too?
« Last Edit: January 22, 2020, 11:58:48 AM by Scot, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #402 on: January 22, 2020, 11:58:52 AM »
either u have a very short memory or you r being a jerk... go back n read.  I say period January 25 th to February 8th holds some winter potential...  just read back  . Jesus

I apologize for not sifting back through your previous eighteen posts to find your prediction. Perhaps if you tried posting with correct grammar, the rest of us could interpret what you are trying to say. It isn't hard to do.

And excuse me for trying to be civil. Take a hint from others that you should write in proper English and provide sources when you wish to post (often errant) predictions. I probably would have noticed your prediction if the past dozen or so posts from you hadn't been tripe. You are a God-awful poster.

Tchüss
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Offline Crockett

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #403 on: January 22, 2020, 12:01:46 PM »
Let's drop the name-calling and personal insults, please. We can disagree -- even harshly -- without that.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #404 on: January 22, 2020, 12:03:19 PM »
I apologize for not sifting back through your previous eighteen posts to find your prediction. Perhaps if you tried posting with correct grammar, the rest of us could interpret what you are trying to say. It isn't hard to do.

And excuse me for trying to be civil. Take a hint from others that you should write in proper English and provide sources when you wish to post (often errant) predictions. I probably would have noticed your prediction if the past dozen or so posts from you hadn't been tripe. You are a God-awful poster.

Tchüss
dont have much time to spend on social media ... sorry feel that way bout way i post ... I got a real life outside this forum . Promise u
Come on severe wx season...

 

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