* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: January 2020 Discussion  (Read 16051 times)

memphishogfan and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,322
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #300 on: January 16, 2020, 11:08:35 AM »
The west based negative NAO that appears to be setting up and the active southern stream screams ice storm for a large swath of the area (along with some good snows for *someone*).  This setup is going to put much of TN on the base of the trough of the polar jet and the west based NAO is going to flatten that out.  The southern stream is going to want to jump that like a ramp and overrun it, especially going in to Feb as the cold sinks and spreads out.

If things develop like this we will likely have an fairly active period for a few weeks.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 11:15:53 AM by bugalou »

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,422
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1881
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #301 on: January 16, 2020, 11:24:28 AM »
The west based negative NAO that appears to be setting up and the active southern stream screams ice storm for a large swath of the area (along with some good snows for *someone*).  This setup is going to put much of TN on the base of the trough of the polar jet and the west based NAO is going to flatten that out.  The southern stream is going to want to jump that like a ramp and overrun it, especially going in to Feb as the cold sinks and spreads out.

If things develop like this we will likely have an fairly active period for a few weeks.
period like I said ... has a good chance to develop a storm that phases ...  start looking for some fantasy storms to pop on the models here soon... some could be big dogs too...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline wfrogge

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 550
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #302 on: January 16, 2020, 11:35:12 AM »
Really don't understand what you guys are seeing. I give up on winter outside of a rogue snowflake or flurry.....

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,322
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #303 on: January 16, 2020, 11:47:08 AM »
Really don't understand what you guys are seeing. I give up on winter outside of a rogue snowflake or flurry.....

Not sure where you are looking but its out there.  See this video its informative:
https://youtu.be/pIJDvQPnXFw

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,547
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 135
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #304 on: January 16, 2020, 03:08:07 PM »
Everyone should be enjoying saving some money on heating this month. Mine kicks on once a day and it really doesn't even need to, its just stretching its legs so it doesn't seize up.   ::bagoverhead::

Post Merge: January 16, 2020, 03:23:32 PM
Not sure where you are looking but its out there.  See this video its informative:
https://youtu.be/pIJDvQPnXFw

I think we are going to need more time, unfortunately. Good post by BAMWX today.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1217809331976052740
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 03:23:32 PM by snowdog, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,328
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 348
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #305 on: January 16, 2020, 03:41:01 PM »
Well it sure looks like another head fake with a cold period coming up.  Which does not surprise me.  Models have become quiet unpredictable after 5 days.  10 days is fantasy land anymore.  Who is right GFS or Euro?  I know which one my bet will be placed on.

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,040
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 223
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #306 on: January 16, 2020, 03:56:22 PM »
I think we are going to need more time, unfortunately. Good post by BAMWX today.

I think you are right. Looks like a couple steps forward this weekend and then a step back. Hopefully we can squeeze in a good week or two of winter sometime in February. El Ninos are fully capable of that. We may end up hoping for nothing more than a Hail Mary storm somewhere in there, but we've done that before too. The one good thing about the next two or three weeks is that they are the peak of our winter weather climo. So we could conceivably sneak something in without major cold, but it'll take some luck.

Offline Clay

  • Moderator Supporter
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,059
  • Location: Lenox Village - Nashville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 624
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #307 on: January 16, 2020, 05:29:46 PM »
If any consolation, this has been a disastrous start to winter for the entire eastern half of the country. Philly still sitting at a trace of snow.  ::blowtorch::
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 05:47:59 PM by Clay »

Online cbrentv318

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 32
  • Location: Murfreesboro
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #308 on: January 16, 2020, 07:08:35 PM »
Not sure where you are looking but its out there.  See this video its informative:
https://youtu.be/pIJDvQPnXFw
Do you watch POW Ponder on Weather? He is from Dallas.
https://youtu.be/U6yCtrkMOv8



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,175
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 129
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #309 on: January 17, 2020, 01:08:42 PM »
Nashville is currently sitting at +12 above normal for this month which rivals 1890 and 2006 as the warmest start to a January.  I do feel like we should at least be around average for the 2nd half but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Top 12 or even Top 10 finish for this month just due to how warm we started.   

Post Merge: January 17, 2020, 05:12:03 PM
Stevens Pass, Washington has reported 149 inches of snow so far this month.   
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 05:12:03 PM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Uncle Nasty

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 273
  • Location: Ooltewah, TN. (suburb of Chattanooga)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #310 on: January 17, 2020, 06:01:10 PM »
February 7th, 2020 for a major part of Tennessee, northern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. There will be a 1 day window depending on speed so let's go with February 6-8th time frame. Don't ask how I know just mark it down.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk


Offline schneitzeit

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,365
  • Location: Fairview, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1235
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #311 on: January 17, 2020, 06:46:37 PM »
The Euro's latest MJO forecast is fool's gold: We enter phases 7 and 8 for a few days, only to sink back to where we are now.

Conversely, the GFS is bullish on below normal temperatures in the Eastern U.S., showing us entering phases 7 and 8 without pause.
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 8
  • Location: Johnson City, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #312 on: January 18, 2020, 08:34:17 AM »
After this 3 day period of cold coming up Sunday through Tuesday it shows back in the 50ís through February 1st. Time for a flip seems to be slipping away


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,175
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 129
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #313 on: January 18, 2020, 09:13:44 AM »
One huge problem with this winter is that the thing that has for the most part been on our side these past 8-10 years the -EPO has been strongly + this year. That just allows for nice mild Pacific air to flood the USA and most of Canada.   

The combination of an unfavorable MJO, unfavorable EPO, and unusually warm SST's fueled by climate change across the Northern Hemisphere is looking like it will be too much to overcome even with a favorable ENSO and even if the Atlantic was to become favorable it would be too little against those 3. 

Offline Matthew

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,328
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 348
Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #314 on: January 18, 2020, 11:01:13 AM »
I used to get upset at no snow but donít these days.  I would much rather have 50ís than just dry cold or cold rain.  If it snows then that would be awesome.  One thing we have learned past few years is models are lost after 10 days. 

 

* Recent Posts

January 2020 Discussion
by Clarksville Snowman
[Today at 12:52:34 PM]
The official "no snow" rant thread
by bugalou
[January 20, 2020, 02:59:42 PM]
Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone Activity
by cgauxknox
[January 20, 2020, 01:24:14 PM]
MOVED: Tornado Outbreak: Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008
by StormNine
[January 20, 2020, 10:47:22 AM]
MOVED: 1/22/2016 Winter Storm
by StormNine
[January 20, 2020, 10:43:16 AM]

Advertisement