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Author Topic: January 2020 Discussion  (Read 16118 times)

Clarksville Snowman, OutsiderLuknIn, rrmeadows67, Beth and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #270 on: January 14, 2020, 08:50:57 AM »
Euro currently has the MJO going into Phase 7 then up and back into Phase 6 again. If that happens, it won't be good. We continue to watch and wait for winter 2020 to arrive.

Online BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #271 on: January 14, 2020, 08:53:37 AM »
Euro currently has the MJO going into Phase 7 then up and back into Phase 6 again. If that happens, it won't be good. We continue to watch and wait for winter 2020 to arrive.
exactly what Iím seeing from the euro also. Till that changes my optimism is going be limited still towards us getting a snow ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #272 on: January 14, 2020, 09:10:50 AM »
exactly what Iím seeing from the euro also. Till that changes my optimism is going be limited still towards us getting a snow ...

The glimmer of hope is that it is going back into Phase 6 at the very end of the run. That could definitely change over the next few days.

Sadly, I think it is pretty certain we aren't going to go through the cold phases for us. I think the best hope at this point is it goes neutral or a very weak signal back into Phase 6 and hope some of the other teleconnections come into play.

Offline Curt

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January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #273 on: January 14, 2020, 09:32:31 AM »
The glimmer of hope is that it is going back into Phase 6 at the very end of the run. That could definitely change over the next few days.

Sadly, I think it is pretty certain we aren't going to go through the cold phases for us. I think the best hope at this point is it goes neutral or a very weak signal back into Phase 6 and hope some of the other teleconnections come into play.

The euro also had it dying in phase 6- and it corrected. Known bias to kill the MJO way too early. Itís been pretty bad this year. and whatís funny is the ocean diagrams in the euro show a nice healthy phase 8 in the 11-15. I bet it has to correct like it always does. The CFS has actually done a much better job.

Offline Curt

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January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #274 on: January 14, 2020, 09:40:44 AM »
And by the way, I will take the MJO dying into the upper left quadrant any day. Stalls in the quarter - when I looked at this a few years ago- lead to a really decent winter pattern in our neck of the woods. Thatís exactly where February 15 went.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #275 on: January 14, 2020, 09:54:58 AM »
Curt, I admire your optimism about cold showing up.  You have been optimistic since late fall.  I hope you are right eventually for all our sake!

Offline gcbama

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #276 on: January 14, 2020, 10:05:09 AM »
Curt, I admire your optimism about cold showing up.  You have been optimistic since late fall.  I hope you are right eventually for all our sake!

It's gonna show up...more likely just a few cold snaps here and there since we are almost through what should be our heart of winter and we have averaged high 50's to low 60's for highs all the way through it :(
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 10:06:44 AM by gcbama »

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #277 on: January 14, 2020, 10:12:46 AM »
Curt always brings good weather points and facts to the table. I love hearing his thoughts even when they aren't good, I enjoy it. And I am optimistic also that we turn colder and hopefully will have some shots at winter weather over the next month. Just need the southern stream to stay active or somewhat active. ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #278 on: January 14, 2020, 10:45:44 AM »
The euro also had it dying in phase 6- and it corrected. Known bias to kill the MJO way too early. Itís been pretty bad this year. and whatís funny is the ocean diagrams in the euro show a nice healthy phase 8 in the 11-15. I bet it has to correct like it always does. The CFS has actually done a much better job.

Yeah, it's been showing a phase 7 to neutral for a few days now. The last couple of runs shows it going back into 6. Like I said, its late in the run. Just something to monitor.

Also interesting, with the MJO predicted to go neutral, all the teleconnections look to go "neutralish" by the end of Jan. AO, NAO, PNA, all going near neutral.

A driverless pattern, should be interesting.

Online BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #279 on: January 14, 2020, 10:55:14 AM »
Southern jet really active on the 12zgfs... big question now.  Can we get some quality cold air in to meet up with these waves showing one after another... just not quite sure
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #280 on: January 14, 2020, 11:04:45 AM »
One thing for sure is the pattern is changing to a colder one.  Average to below average.  Usually law of averages is a pattern holds for about 6 weeks.  I like our chances of having winter mischief.  Also if 6 weeks does come to fruition then that puts spring right on time.  Also if some LR models are right we will want the warmer temps after all is said and done.  Not giving up hope.

I have a friend in BC that since last week has had temps -10 and more.  So cold temps are on our side of globe also.

Online BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #281 on: January 15, 2020, 06:46:03 AM »
Eps model back to a warm look for east. Cold out west again... not seeing a true pattern change to be honest ... just some cold day or two  very transient still... going into February looks actually above average  Hope Iím wrong
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #282 on: January 15, 2020, 07:01:30 AM »
It's in voodoo land, but isn't she a beaut.  Nice little bowling ball low coming out of Arkansas.  Gone on the next run, guaranteed.

« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 07:04:53 AM by Eric »
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Offline TNHunter

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #283 on: January 15, 2020, 08:18:00 AM »
To be honest, winter has jacked around long enough and had enough time to show its face.  Come February not many people are thinking about snow, most have their eyes set on the emergence of spring soon.  Would take a warm above average February with sunny days.  Get the fishing and outdoor season started early.  Cold February and March is miserable. 

Offline WXHD

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #284 on: January 15, 2020, 10:15:33 AM »
My tulips are already budding.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly Ė raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

 

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