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Author Topic: January 2020 Discussion  (Read 42730 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #375 on: January 20, 2020, 08:30:04 PM »
Could you provide some sources? I would like to read them

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Conversely, could we also do an @ feature? That would be useful 👍
that would be American wx my friend.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline cbrentv318

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #376 on: January 20, 2020, 08:36:53 PM »
Could you provide some sources? I would like to read them

Post Merge: January 20, 2020, 08:27:55 PM
Conversely, could we also do an @ feature? That would be useful




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Online TNHunter

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #377 on: January 20, 2020, 09:08:23 PM »
This winter has been really close to a carbon copy of last years winter. Snow and cold early November, warm and wet December and early January. Quick cold shot with a dusting of snow MLK weekend and then back to warm and wet to end January.

Pretty sure the events from last year to this years winter are really really close.  Kind of weird to have 2 such similar winters back to back like that IMO. Yíall agree?

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #378 on: January 20, 2020, 09:52:53 PM »
Hopefully the MJO does a head fake into 6 before leaving quickly. GEFS has it leaving 6 quickly and heading to 1-2. This is not a torch pattern by any stretch. High temps almost never leave the 40ís and most lows are close to freezing.

Offline Matthew

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #379 on: January 20, 2020, 11:13:12 PM »
everything I read n searched ... this bad boy is heading back to phase 4 and 5 late this month ...☹️

Seems one would learn when predicting severe wx months in advance that never happens.  Why would you believe what the mojo forecast is more than 10 days out.  Letís just enjoy the wx we have that you said and see what happens.  Wx should not make our daily lives miserable.  Yeah some days wx sucks but some days wx is fabulous.  It all evens out eventually.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #380 on: January 21, 2020, 04:12:31 AM »
Hopefully we all can learn something from this frustrating winter we are having again. Just because the coldest weather is on our side globe doesnít mean it will automatically make down to the lower 48 states  . You can thank the crummy pacific for spilling in mostly pacific air to us.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Coach B

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #381 on: January 21, 2020, 07:17:54 AM »
Thought this was great info from OHX in regards to yesterday's weather being quite different than was forecast. As a lifelong resident I've seen the day after a winter storm or strong cold front work out like yesterday numerous times.

Quote
National Weather Service Nashville TN
225 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Well, it looks like those few models that held on to the cloud
cover yesterday morning through the day were correct. Overall,
models were not any help with the snow in the morning into the
afternoon, and that seems to be the case when an unresolved (in
the models) low cloud deck comes in with temperatures in the mid
teens to low 20s at the surface. Initial thought without diving
into the data too deep from yesterday morning is that some weak
lift was able to squeeze out some larger flakes in the snow growth
zone which just happened to coincide with the moisture in the low
cloud deck. Since the models not only did not have the low
clouds, and did not have clouds in the afternoon, they were not
able to resolve the snow/flurries potential yesterday morning.
Something to keep in mind in case those conditions develop in the
future, and satellite/radar trends look to keep cloud cover and
snow potential much longer.

Offline joemomma

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #382 on: January 21, 2020, 12:55:19 PM »
What are the chances this weekend's rain/snow mix is more snow than rain in Big South Fork?  Thinking about getting some hiking/camping in, and would much prefer snow to rain.  The last couple of days it has gone from rain to rain/snow.  Hoping the trend continues.

Offline Crockett

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #383 on: January 21, 2020, 02:12:50 PM »
What are the chances this weekend's rain/snow mix is more snow than rain in Big South Fork?  Thinking about getting some hiking/camping in, and would much prefer snow to rain.  The last couple of days it has gone from rain to rain/snow.  Hoping the trend continues.

It looks like rain to me, unfortunately.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #384 on: January 21, 2020, 03:36:26 PM »
I saw where the CMC had a major upgrade with two new super computers. Supposed to put the GFS a distant third in verification.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #385 on: January 21, 2020, 04:15:22 PM »
That's awesome! O, Canada...
.

Offline Drifter49

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #386 on: January 21, 2020, 04:52:22 PM »
I saw where the CMC had a major upgrade with two new super computers. Supposed to put the GFS a distant third in verification.
Wouldn't take much to do that lol

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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #387 on: January 21, 2020, 07:17:45 PM »
I saw where the CMC had a major upgrade with two new super computers. Supposed to put the GFS a distant third in verification.

Gfs is actually 4th in verification behind UKMET, CMC, and of course the Euro.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #388 on: January 21, 2020, 07:22:50 PM »
Gfs is actually 4th in verification behind UKMET, CMC, and of course the Euro.
and number 5 is the gefs...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #389 on: January 21, 2020, 07:27:08 PM »
and number 5 is the gefs...

No the GEFS is an ensemble not a single operational run. Itís purpose and resolution is complete different than operations runs- as is the EPS (Euro Ensemble) and Canadian Ensemble.

 

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