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Author Topic: January 2020 Discussion  (Read 38997 times)

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Offline wfrogge

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #225 on: January 12, 2020, 04:05:14 PM »
If you like severe weather then this 1/2 of the winter is for you. Upper 60s with a few systems that will bring a thunderstorm or two

Offline Matthew

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #226 on: January 12, 2020, 05:08:41 PM »
If you like severe weather then this 1/2 of the winter is for you. Upper 60s with a few systems that will bring a thunderstorm or two

I donít see any chances of severe wx in the modeling.  I see seasonal to cooler than average after this week.  Wet cool to cold.  We can score with seasonal temps.  Iíd say better chances to be wet and cool/cold to possibly snow/ice than severe wx anytime soon.

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #227 on: January 12, 2020, 05:48:15 PM »
All ensembles go BN temp wise starting next weekend - coincidentally when the MJO emerges through 7- and end up here for temp anomalies on day 15 for a reversal of fortune and in the heart of winter.
GEFS


Canadian


Euro


The Euro control has a snowstorm through the entire state in the 11-15.







Offline Michael

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #228 on: January 12, 2020, 07:00:32 PM »
GFS keeps hinting at something in the 10-16. Something to watch for sure.


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Offline Matthew

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #229 on: January 12, 2020, 07:27:46 PM »
All ensembles go BN temp wise starting next weekend - coincidentally when the MJO emerges through 7- and end up here for temp anomalies on day 15 for a reversal of fortune and in the heart of winter.
GEFS


Canadian


Euro


The Euro control has a snowstorm through the entire state in the 11-15.

Donít see any severe wx in those maps.  ::whistling:: ::whistling::🤷🏻‍♂️

Offline wfrogge

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #230 on: January 12, 2020, 08:17:32 PM »
Donít see any severe wx in those maps.  ::whistling:: ::whistling::🤷🏻‍♂️

GEFS has a strong signal for severe but ok..... Guess we will see

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #231 on: January 12, 2020, 08:23:13 PM »
Not seeing signs still of any artic air coming down here to us least next 10 days
Come on severe wx season...

Offline mempho

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #232 on: January 13, 2020, 05:13:43 AM »
Not seeing signs still of any artic air coming down here to us least next 10 days
Could it be possible that March is colder than January?

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #233 on: January 13, 2020, 05:25:15 AM »
Could it be possible that March is colder than January?

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you can count on a below average temp wise March ...  thatís for sure
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #234 on: January 13, 2020, 05:29:27 AM »
Not seeing signs still of any artic air coming down here to us least next 10 days
Donít know what you consider arctic air but all models have us much colder after day 6. Not brutal cold but perfect if you want snow.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #235 on: January 13, 2020, 05:59:03 AM »
Donít know what you consider arctic air but all models have us much colder after day 6. Not brutal cold but perfect if you want snow.
seasonal averages pretty much ... remember weíre approaching our coldest climate average  time ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Coach B

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #236 on: January 13, 2020, 07:29:53 AM »
seasonal averages pretty much ... remember weíre approaching our coldest climate average  time ...

Seasonal will be a big change from what will end up being FOUR straight weeks with every day above normal. In addition, seasonal can get the job done in late January through mid February. Probably wont lock in the Arctic for an extended period, but we are clearly headed toward a major pattern change that should at least provide us some opportunities. Come on Bruce, it beats the last month of NO opportunities! ;)

Offline gcbama

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #237 on: January 13, 2020, 08:29:02 AM »
Donít know what you consider arctic air but all models have us much colder after day 6. Not brutal cold but perfect if you want snow.

I think he is like me...true arctic air is highs in the mid twenties and lows in single digits for more than a 48 hour period.....a high of mid 30's is not really arctic to me but that's just my opinion....

Offline Eric

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #238 on: January 13, 2020, 08:41:37 AM »
I think he is like me...true arctic air is highs in the mid twenties and lows in single digits for more than a 48 hour period.....a high of mid 30's is not really arctic to me but that's just my opinion....

If the depth of the cold air is too deep you risk 1) suppression and/or 2) the air being so dry it's hard to get precip through the column.  As long as we get temps in the upper 20s - low 30s, we'll get snow.  Most of our BEST snows have occurred with the precip 29-34F.  The air carries more water, therefore the snowfall is wet and heavy.  If the temps get too low, the ratios jump up and you get finer and finer flakes, which leads to more snow but less accumulation (if that makes sense).
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #239 on: January 13, 2020, 08:52:32 AM »
Lows at night coming up could support some snow ... highs temps wonít   Mid 40 wonít cut it . Highs low mid 30s.  Low temps mid to lower 20s is artic to me
Come on severe wx season...

 

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