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Author Topic: January 2020 Discussion  (Read 24129 times)

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Offline StormNine

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January 2020 Discussion
« on: December 22, 2019, 09:19:23 AM »
The long-range GFS and Euro are in different worlds.  Usually what you expect when a pattern change is on the horizon.

To be honest things can go either way.  There is quite a bit of disagreement on both the MJO (some want to go into craptastic Phase Blowtorch Everybody 6) whereas others want to go to 7 and eventually 8 although it will be a low amplitude but still will make some impact.  The biggest impacts come from what happens to the PV.  If it goes to Alaska then it is cold Alaska/NW Canada and mild everyone else.   If it goes to Baffin Bay/Eastern Canada then you could get some blocking around Greenland and potentiall the NE Pacific and it is game on.   

With MJO

Blowtorch phases: 4,5,6

Transition phases: 3,7

Phases you like: 8,1,2

Just like with anything else there are other variables and especially during low amp phases other factors such as EPO, what happens around Alaska, NAO, ENSO, etc. must also be taken into account. 


Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2019, 04:52:50 PM »
Weíve been below normal for nearly all of November and a good chunk of December. That warm up we thought might happen earlier was delayed- and now itís here. Itís going to be warm for about a week starting tomorrow before it progressively cools off again after the first of the year. There is a massive amount of cold air building in central Alaska and NW Canada- nearly 50 to 70 below. Thatís going to go south at some point. Until then - Merry Christmas!

Offline StormNine

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2019, 06:33:29 PM »
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A very low confidence call.  A lot will depend on where the Polar Vortex sets up.  If it goes over Alaska and pumps up the +EPO then there will be no significant below average areas except for Alaska/NW Canada.  If it goes to Siberia we probably deal with just cold enough air and average conditions. If it goes to the Baffin Bay area then I am too warm.

This is pretty much the middle call.  A mix of January 2004, 2007, and 2015. 
« Last Edit: December 22, 2019, 06:51:44 PM by StormNine »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2019, 06:39:32 PM »
Weíve been below normal for nearly all of November and a good chunk of December. That warm up we thought might happen earlier was delayed- and now itís here. Itís going to be warm for about a week starting tomorrow before it progressively cools off again after the first of the year. There is a massive amount of cold air building in central Alaska and NW Canada- nearly 50 to 70 below. Thatís going to go south at some point. Until then - Merry Christmas!
question is as always, how far south does it penetrate. vs going east. good chance most of the cold air will just sweep across Canada from west to east... especially if we cant build a fairly steep ridge out west... from my past experiences of weather I have seen doesn't guarantee most of much of the artic air will dump south... now long range models r starting to pick up above average temps through first week January... as steven said, this is pretty much up in the air... got a lot of model watching to do see what trends ::coffee::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2019, 05:04:46 PM »
Admin note- after some discussion among the team, we are going to make a slight topic organization change. Rather than the traditional "season" threads that we have always done (such as Winter 2019-2020), we are going to try a "monthly" approach to threads. We feel this will make more sense to discuss things by month rather than continue in an ever-growing season thread, which can get quite long and harder to search in.

From this point forward, please discuss anything pertaining to weather after January 1, 2020 in this thread. For any remaining discussion about weather in December, please discuss that in the December 2019 thread:

https://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,3910.msg240201/topicseen.html#new

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2019, 05:32:57 AM »
Day 10 on the 0z euro... well we see.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2019, 11:01:40 AM »
LR trends aint our friends. MJO, AO, PNA, NAO, and EPO all headed in the wrong direction for the New Year. The good news is its early and the factors that held them in place last year aren't near as prevalent. The polar vortex is too strong right now and wont let go. There should be plenty of time for disruption. If we are talking all of these factors come Jan 31...well then that's a different story.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2019, 11:13:33 AM »
LR trends aint our friends. MJO, AO, PNA, NAO, and EPO all headed in the wrong direction for the New Year. The good news is its early and the factors that held them in place last year aren't near as prevalent. The polar vortex is too strong right now and wont let go. There should be plenty of time for disruption. If we are talking all of these factors come Jan 31...well then that's a different story.
yeah a major red flag 🚩 for sure
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2019, 11:18:01 AM »
yeah a major red flag 🚩 for sure

I'm a little shocked it only took you 12 minutes to respond.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2019, 11:21:52 AM »
I'm a little shocked it only took you 12 minutes to respond.
actually was fixing post that ... disappointed I am actually ... ready for a good ⛄️
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2019, 02:38:37 PM »
That pattern does appear to get better after the first week of January. Itís LR so lets see. Would like to see the PV not get wrapped so tight though. That reminds me of that relentless 2011-2012 winter.

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2019, 03:10:43 PM »
With 70s on Christmas, Old Man Winter owes us snow lovers a good January and February.

Offline StormNine

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2019, 04:02:50 PM »
That pattern does appear to get better after the first week of January. Itís LR so lets see. Would like to see the PV not get wrapped so tight though. That reminds me of that relentless 2011-2012 winter.

There were some trends that the PV gets broken down fairly quickly.  That is just one set of model runs and I imagine we will see some more craptastic ones as well that remind us of 2011-12, which I consider to be the worst winter of all-time generally. 

The chances of a White New Years are even worse than a White Christmas with 2001 being the last time any of us saw that.   Even Evansville, IN has only recorded a white New Years 4% of the time.   Of course we won't see one this winter either. 

Offline snowdog

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2019, 07:11:38 PM »
There were some trends that the PV gets broken down fairly quickly.  That is just one set of model runs and I imagine we will see some more craptastic ones as well that remind us of 2011-12, which I consider to be the worst winter of all-time generally. 

The chances of a White New Years are even worse than a White Christmas with 2001 being the last time any of us saw that.   Even Evansville, IN has only recorded a white New Years 4% of the time.   Of course we won't see one this winter either.

Due to low solar forcing currently, I'd wager on a breakdown of the PV.

Offline wfrogge

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Re: January 2020 Discussion
« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2019, 08:22:14 AM »
A fantasy range storm on Jan 8th would hit the entire state with a low tracking the preferred Texarkana to Tupelo track.  Cant wait to watch this fall apart as medium range models are in scope

 

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