Fall 2019

[dwagner88]

Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things don’t improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I haven’t had any appreciable rain since mid August.

[Curt]

Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things don’t improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I haven’t had any appreciable rain since mid August.

Crazy times for sure. Memphis had its warmest September (like most) and it’s 3rd driest September to boot. Add to that September was the 6th driest month on record- period.

And now- October is about to enter into the top 10 wettest October’s on record. Looks like some ups and downs over the next couples of weeks before a true below normal temp pattern sets in for the last week of October. Precip patterns are going to change too with much increased precip over the whole area.

[BRUCE]

If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....

[mamMATTus]

If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....

Whatever happens, please let it come through during the daytime here so we can actually see something. I'm not getting my hopes up. Looks like it's all going to come down to placement of the surface low, which the GFS has further south than the Euro. Given the track record I'm going with the latter for now.
Post Merge: October 15, 2019, 08:42:28 PMC'mon guys I wanna here some more about this Sunday/Monday threat! If there is one, that is...

[cgauxknox]

Saw a tweet from Jim Cantore this morning suggesting Potential Tropical Cyclone 17 may be the drought buster for the southeast this weekend.  We can hope. 

[BRUCE]

Whatever happens, please let it come through during the daytime here so we can actually see something. I'm not getting my hopes up. Looks like it's all going to come down to placement of the surface low, which the GFS has further south than the Euro. Given the track record I'm going with the latter for now.
Post Merge: October 15, 2019, 08:42:28 PMC'mon guys I wanna here some more about this Sunday/Monday threat! If there is one, that is...

hopefully tonight I can dig into more ... do know SPC has a 5 day threat already across a lot of Arkansas ..

[gcbama]

If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....

idk bruce, doesn't look to impressive as far as instability as of now to me? 750-900 maybe?

[NashRugger]

idk bruce, doesn't look to impressive as far as instability as of now to me? 750-900 maybe?

Not even Sunday now as that is a lot farther back to the west, into eastern OK/NE TX and the Ozarks.

[BRUCE]

Not even Sunday now as that is a lot farther back to the west, into eastern OK/NE TX and the Ozarks.

yeah the 0z euro was less impressive for us

[Crockett]

Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure. 

[Clarksville Snowman]

We received between 3/4 inch and a inch last night here in Montgomery County. Heavy rain at times, no doubt the east part of the state is dry especially the southeast around the Chattanooga area. Hopefully they will get some relief soon as well.

[snowdog]

Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure. 

Live look at Bruce...

[gcbama]

Live look at Bruce...

lol....well I get it, it's been so boring for months and months...but I don't bite on anything until 48 hours out anymore lol, last years winter and this spring severe weather COMPLETE busts ruined me lol

[StormNine]

Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
develop from the southern Plains into the lower OH Valley as the mid
level trough sharpens over the Plains Monday. The ECMWF and GFS are
in better agreement over the position of an intensifying surface low
compared to yesterday, with the low tracking ne into MN by Monday
afternoon. Within a broad warm sector regime (dew points lower/mid
60s) ahead of the surface front, a very strong low/mid level jet
will overspread the region ahead of the surface cold front. PWATS
expected to run near 2 standard deviations of normal along with the
strong mid/upper level forcing will result in some potential for
locally heavy rainfall in many locations.

There is also the possibility of a QLCS type line, or broken line,
of thunderstorms along/ahead of the sfc front. Modest MU CAPES
running at or below 500 J/KG seem adequate to support such a cool
season QLCS event. Of course, given the expected wind fields and
bulk shear, one could not rule out some damaging wind gusts and a
few brief tornado spin-ups in such an environment.

Various deterministic and ensemble model discrepancies still exist
in timing/placement and strength of the surface features next
Monday, esp with the timing of the surface front. Therefore, will
not get too specific with heavy rain/severe potential at this time.
However, model trends will continue to need to be monitored closely
in the coming days for possibly of increasing probabilities of both
types of impacts. Latest GEFS CIPS analogs also lend some support
for at least a minor severe weather event Monday.

The NWS of Paducah is mentioning a possible QLCS for Monday.   

[wfrogge]

Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure. 

Was still fantasy before it could get any  behind it.  Hope yall like a thin QLCS cause yall gonna get a thin QLCS