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Never saw a drop of rain from this weekends front. Looks like the system mid week will miss to the south. We will be in D4 shortly if things don’t improve. Wettest winter and spring ever to severe drought in a matter of a few months. Other than a quick inch from a thundershower in mid September, I haven’t had any appreciable rain since mid August.
If the 12z euro is correct... we could be looking at our first fall severe weather setup... plenty instability out ahead of strong cold front later Sunday ....
Whatever happens, please let it come through during the daytime here so we can actually see something. I'm not getting my hopes up. Looks like it's all going to come down to placement of the surface low, which the GFS has further south than the Euro. Given the track record I'm going with the latter for now.Post Merge: October 15, 2019, 08:42:28 PMC'mon guys I wanna here some more about this Sunday/Monday threat! If there is one, that is...
idk bruce, doesn't look to impressive as far as instability as of now to me? 750-900 maybe?
Not even Sunday now as that is a lot farther back to the west, into eastern OK/NE TX and the Ozarks.
Well, it's officially fall. We've had our first fantasy severe weather outbreak that fizzled before it began. Many more will follow, I'm sure.
Live look at Bruce...
Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow willdevelop from the southern Plains into the lower OH Valley as the midlevel trough sharpens over the Plains Monday. The ECMWF and GFS arein better agreement over the position of an intensifying surface lowcompared to yesterday, with the low tracking ne into MN by Mondayafternoon. Within a broad warm sector regime (dew points lower/mid60s) ahead of the surface front, a very strong low/mid level jetwill overspread the region ahead of the surface cold front. PWATSexpected to run near 2 standard deviations of normal along with thestrong mid/upper level forcing will result in some potential forlocally heavy rainfall in many locations.There is also the possibility of a QLCS type line, or broken line,of thunderstorms along/ahead of the sfc front. Modest MU CAPESrunning at or below 500 J/KG seem adequate to support such a coolseason QLCS event. Of course, given the expected wind fields andbulk shear, one could not rule out some damaging wind gusts and afew brief tornado spin-ups in such an environment.Various deterministic and ensemble model discrepancies still existin timing/placement and strength of the surface features nextMonday, esp with the timing of the surface front. Therefore, willnot get too specific with heavy rain/severe potential at this time.However, model trends will continue to need to be monitored closelyin the coming days for possibly of increasing probabilities of bothtypes of impacts. Latest GEFS CIPS analogs also lend some supportfor at least a minor severe weather event Monday.