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Author Topic: Fall 2019  (Read 15549 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #180 on: September 21, 2019, 04:30:28 PM »
Day 10 Euro has the ridge visiting Hudson Bay. Impressive.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #181 on: September 21, 2019, 05:53:17 PM »
 ::blowtorch::
Day 10 Euro has the ridge visiting Hudson Bay. Impressive.
::blowtorch::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #182 on: September 21, 2019, 05:56:15 PM »
When it does shift East then that is when one has to potentially worry about severe weather as a deep trough could spawn a pretty potent system especially when you factor in an active northern stream.  That is what ended the 2007 pattern and the severe weather the day after the Sevier County fire broke down the 2016 pattern for about 3 weeks.   

Most don't realize how lucky this area was back in 2016.  If those fires had broke out a few weeks earlier in November before the pattern changed to wet in December, they would have spread over most of the Smokies, where roads are few and the only way to fight a fire would be by airplane or helicopter dropping water from above.  We really dodged a bullet, despite how bad it got, because it could've been a true natural disaster of historic proportions.   

Post Merge: September 21, 2019, 06:17:41 PM
All this heat while an arctic air mass will infiltrate the west over the next 10 days with early snow even onto the northern plains. Ski resorts out west will start an early base( this makes this skier happy beyond belief).It’s all a balancing act which will eventually see the trough move east afterwards. Phase 1 of the MJO in Sept/Oct is a cold pattern out west which then shifts east in Phase 2.

The west wins in the upcoming pattern.  A trough digs deep out there, building a ridge over us.  We may be in this for the long haul.  Drought loves to feed on itself, so I'm really worried this could last through most of our Autumn.  We've had two very wet years behind us, so the pendulum could be swinging the other way, and I hate that.  Give me soggy swamp over dry dust any day.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2019, 06:17:41 PM by JayCee, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #183 on: September 21, 2019, 06:23:54 PM »
There was a 100 acre field fire that threatened some homes in Oak Grove, KY across the state line from Clarksville, TN.  It took 4 firefighter departments to get rid of it.

Unfortunately, this may be just the beginning.   

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #184 on: September 21, 2019, 06:26:48 PM »
Pray.  (Come on Hammer Time, tell us how it is)
https://youtu.be/QVgPUhY0UiE

Yep, showin' my age.   ;D

Quote
The ridge really surges north Friday through Saturday as a deep
incoming trough across the western states amplifies the heights. The
GFS and ECMWF show the strong ridge in place beyond this extended
forecast period. So not only will we approach record max temps on
Friday and Saturday, records are in danger of being broken for the
next several days beyond this extended period
.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2019, 06:40:14 PM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #185 on: September 22, 2019, 08:05:11 AM »
Can we put the Great Blowtorch next to the Fall 2019 title as a play on words for the Great Pumpkin?   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #186 on: September 22, 2019, 08:11:15 AM »
This is karma for this pumpkin spice sh*t and bringing out Christmas decorations in the middle of the summer

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #187 on: September 22, 2019, 08:25:41 AM »
The 06Z GFS Temperatures at 1pm on 9/30 (probably need to add about 3 degrees to this due to our dry ground)

Nashville: 95F
Memphis: 94F
Cincinnati OH: 90F
Windsor ON: 84F 

Meanwhile Out West at that same time:
Great Falls, MT: 32F
Las Vegas, NV: 65F
Reno, NV: 44F
Spokane, WA: 47F
Yellowstone National Park, WY: 27F   

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #188 on: September 22, 2019, 08:41:08 AM »
The 06Z GFS Temperatures at 1pm on 9/30 (probably need to add about 3 degrees to this due to our dry ground)

Nashville: 95F
Memphis: 94F
Cincinnati OH: 90F
Windsor ON: 84F 

Meanwhile Out West at that same time:
Great Falls, MT: 32F
Las Vegas, NV: 65F
Reno, NV: 44F
Spokane, WA: 47F
Yellowstone National Park, WY: 27F
sounds like a good recipe for a big storm... brewing .mmm
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #189 on: September 22, 2019, 12:41:12 PM »
James Spann
Yesterday Alabama had 19 wildfires statewide, bringing the total to 156 in the last 7 days and 313 in the last 30 days.

We can expect more fire starts, hotter, faster fires,  and erratic fire behavior in the dry air over Alabama. It is also harder to get containment lines to hold the fire when humidity is low. Be very careful if you have to do any outdoor burning!

Post Merge: September 22, 2019, 08:18:28 PM
There was a 100 acre field fire that threatened some homes in Oak Grove, KY across the state line from Clarksville, TN.  It took 4 firefighter departments to get rid of it.

Unfortunately, this may be just the beginning.

‘Smoke-nado’ Spawned by Kentucky Fire
 https://www.weather.com/news/trending/video/smoke-nado-swirls-in-southern-kentucky-fire?pl=pl-the-latest
From The Weather Channel iPhone App
« Last Edit: September 22, 2019, 08:18:28 PM by Matthew, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #190 on: September 22, 2019, 08:24:42 PM »
Hope everyone enjoys the fall chill of 85 degrees the next couple of days.  ::bagoverhead::

Offline Matthew

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #191 on: September 22, 2019, 08:28:08 PM »
Hope everyone enjoys the fall chill of 85 degrees the next couple of days.  ::bagoverhead::

Wish it included rain

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #192 on: September 22, 2019, 08:54:31 PM »
The GFS now keeps us all in the 80s next weekend and first part of next week. Euro still has mid 90s. Looks like maybe both try to break ridge around day 10.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #193 on: September 23, 2019, 06:16:52 AM »
Happy first day of fall.

Despite the sun being at the same position and strength as in March, the weather won't cooperate with cooler temperatures.  Record highs in the low to mid 90's appear likely in most eastern valley locations Thursday-Sunday.  With no rain falling, along with record heat, drought is gaining ground each day.  Will this be another 2016, when large parts of Tennessee were in exceptional drought by Fall's end?  Hope not, but it's certainly heading in that direction. 

Post Merge: September 23, 2019, 08:17:59 AM
Current HRRR offers some hope for rain for parts of west/middle TN today, but amounts look too light and scattered to help much.  Nevertheless, just seeing water fall from the sky would feel good at this point.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2019, 08:18:18 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #194 on: September 23, 2019, 08:55:11 AM »
News flash... breaking news...just had about a 3 minute shower here at work ... first rain drop in little over a month ...
Come on severe wx season...

 

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