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Author Topic: Fall 2019  (Read 4331 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #90 on: September 11, 2019, 11:17:52 AM »
Bring on chilly evenings, chili, bonfires, s'mores, and wiener roasts... I'm ready!

Offline Flash

Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #91 on: September 11, 2019, 03:12:23 PM »
yeah... high temps look to go from mid 90s to upper 80s ... Little bit helps...

Could be low to mid 80's for some depending on tropical cloud cover.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline Crockett

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #92 on: September 11, 2019, 06:55:49 PM »


As hot as it was today, can you imagine doing this? This guy's name is Trinity Smith. He's an avid runner, and every 9/11 since 2002 he's spent the day running with the American flag in honor of the 9/11 victims. The last few years, he's been doing it in full turn-out gear. But it's not usually as hot as it was today. He doesn't run non-stop; he takes breaks, but he runs most of the day. I talked to him just a minute ago and he has no idea how many miles he's run (he looks like he's about to collapse), but another marathon runner who was running with him had completed 29 miles by mid-afternoon. So, it's easily in excess of 30 miles.

He's my age; we went to school together...which is to say that he's no spring chicken. I don't know how he does it.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 06:58:55 PM by Crockett »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #93 on: September 12, 2019, 08:46:54 AM »
And the new euro weeklies are out...  get used to much above normal temps through October ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline ryandourius

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #94 on: September 12, 2019, 09:10:01 AM »
And the new euro weeklies are out...  get used to much above normal temps through October ...

When will it end?  ::blowtorch::  ::hot::

Offline Beth

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #95 on: September 12, 2019, 10:35:12 AM »
When will it end?  ::blowtorch::  ::hot::
I am glad! Heading to Orange beach for fall break the first of October. Hope the Hurricanes stay away!

Offline Flash

Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #96 on: September 12, 2019, 12:06:44 PM »
I am glad! Heading to Orange beach for fall break the first of October. Hope the Hurricanes stay away!

While I can't say I'm glad, my thought is...pick a lane, fall. Either come now or come with a vengeance in November.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline bugalou

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #97 on: September 12, 2019, 05:12:34 PM »
And the new euro weeklies are out...  get used to much above normal temps through October ...

Better in October than July.  Considering the mild and wet (until recently) summer we have had, I can deal with an above normal October and November.  Then let thinks tank for winter.  :) ::snowman::

Offline Curt

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Fall 2019
« Reply #98 on: September 12, 2019, 08:07:40 PM »
We havenít had a drop of rain since August 27th. 8/10 of the driest months on record at Memphis are either September or October.

If the month ended today, it would be the warmest September on record. Will have to see how the cool down evolves. I think itís fair to say it a rival for the Top Ten warmest and driest September at Memphis. UHI aside, looking at Bartlett station, itís still #2 - for now anyways. The cool down will put a dent in it- just depends on when and how cool in the last half of the month.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 08:24:16 PM by Curt »

Offline Flash

Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #99 on: September 13, 2019, 07:16:32 AM »
This fall be like UT football. Maybe good times arrive at some point, but not anytime soon.

Current anthem until even the appearance of hope emerges: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU9JoFKlaZ0

*Sigh* I just want to wear a windbreaker again.  ;)
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline Curt

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Fall 2019
« Reply #100 on: September 13, 2019, 04:06:29 PM »
Good comparison of Euro weekly forecast to reality:

Euro Weekly Forecast 2m Temps from 6 weeks ago:




Reality for the forecasted week:



As good as the forecast was for the Southeast it sucked for the Northern Plains.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 04:31:00 PM by Curt »

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #101 on: Yesterday at 07:24:16 AM »
I think the previously advertised cooldown has largely been lost in the long range. Maybe we drop below 90 for highs during the last few days of the month? Maybe?

Based on trends, I think outdoor pools can stay open a month longer compared to the past. October could be the new September... letís hope for some actual fall weather then.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #102 on: Yesterday at 07:42:09 AM »
I would say we are looking at 90s or at least upper 80's on a consistent basis till at least October 10th with little to no rain, which may negatively impact the quality of our fall colors when they change in Late October/November. You need either a tropical system, recurving typoon, or a strong powerhouse low pressure system that would probably give us a tornado outbreak (see November 2002 and October 2007).   

The question will become do we change 1925 or 2018 when we went more winter like and skip fall, do we change 2007 like when we at least went to around average, or do we change 2016 like when we cool off but we still deal with the 70s and 80s for the remainder of fall and even into the winter months.

I am leaning towards the 2007 situation at this time.

Offline Thundersnow

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Fall 2019
« Reply #103 on: Yesterday at 08:36:07 AM »
I would say we are looking at 90s or at least upper 80's on a consistent basis till at least October 10th with little to no rain...

I really hope youíre wrong about that... but, Iím afraid you may be right.

If the region gets locked into a warm dry fall, one begins to think about the specter of 2016. Itís not likely to play into the same setup hopefully. The Eastern US just has to be as vigilant about forest fires as they are in the west.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #104 on: Yesterday at 09:24:38 AM »
I would say we are looking at 90s or at least upper 80's on a consistent basis till at least October 10th with little to no rain, which may negatively impact the quality of our fall colors when they change in Late October/November. You need either a tropical system, recurving typoon, or a strong powerhouse low pressure system that would probably give us a tornado outbreak (see November 2002 and October 2007).   

The question will become do we change 1925 or 2018 when we went more winter like and skip fall, do we change 2007 like when we at least went to around average, or do we change 2016 like when we cool off but we still deal with the 70s and 80s for the remainder of fall and even into the winter months.

I am leaning towards the 2007 situation at this time.
per long range models... this pattern not going away appears... keeping my pool open
Come on severe wx season...

 

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