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Author Topic: Fall 2019  (Read 4351 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #75 on: September 06, 2019, 08:09:23 PM »
The problem recently we have been having is that it is extending into at least the first 1/3rd of October as well.

I could tolerate a hot September but October is unacceptable.   

Also, I wonder if a lot of those years were drought years and therefore prone to intense temperature rises. Especially when you look at the lows (unless that is factoring in the Smoky Mountains) but I don't recall the last time I saw a sub-40 low in September.  Drought years typically are prone to lower lows and higher highs just like an arid or semiarid climate.  In a relatively wet year like 2019, I feel like we shouldn't be quite this warm.   

Post Merge: September 06, 2019, 07:52:37 PM
The telecommunication combo predicted in the next week or two of + PNA, slightly +NAO, and -AO wouldn't be that bad in the wintertime especially if other factors are at least neutral to favorable.
exactly what I was going bring up... these 90s r slowly getting extended in part October ... before you know it ... we will be flirting with the 90 mark in November ......
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Fall 2019
« Reply #76 on: September 06, 2019, 08:16:24 PM »
The problem recently we have been having is that it is extending into at least the first 1/3rd of October as well.

I could tolerate a hot September but October is unacceptable.   

Also, I wonder if a lot of those years were drought years and therefore prone to intense temperature rises. Especially when you look at the lows (unless that is factoring in the Smoky Mountains) but I don't recall the last time I saw a sub-40 low in September.  Drought years typically are prone to lower lows and higher highs just like an arid or semiarid climate.  In a relatively wet year like 2019, I feel like we shouldn't be quite this warm.   

Post Merge: September 06, 2019, 02:52:37 PM
The telecommunication combo predicted in the next week or two of + PNA, slightly +NAO, and -AO wouldn't be that bad in the wintertime especially if other factors are at least neutral to favorable.



Looks like some 90ís pre 1940 wasnít all that uncommon.

For the last 15 years, low 90ís occur 1 in 3 years. The latest 90 degree day I could find off Bartlettís station (Memphis Weather Net) was October 15, 2015. There are no 90 degree days in the last 15 days of October for the last 15 years at Bartlett. November has never recorded a 90 degree day in Tennessee since records began in 1885- it did hit 87 in 1916.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 08:25:51 PM by Curt »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #77 on: September 06, 2019, 09:05:16 PM »
Look at the lows in October with quite a few years having a trace or more of snowfall.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #78 on: September 06, 2019, 09:11:22 PM »
Look at the lows in October with quite a few years having a trace or more of snowfall.

The biggest October snow event did occur in 1925, the same year that featured that horrid even by today's standards September heat wave.   

Offline Matthew

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #79 on: September 08, 2019, 05:39:39 PM »
We are needing some serious rain.  Bad time to go dry when leaves are falling and trying to get ready for winter. Dry and leaves is not a good thing together.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #80 on: September 08, 2019, 06:00:25 PM »
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Mega North America Ridge.

Do notice the analogs.  2009, 2004, and 2005 appear 7 out of 10 times.  That is quite impressive.   

People remember 2009-10, but they forget that Fall 2009 was very warm and with the latest freeze on record for Middle TN.  That is not to say that our winter will be like 2009-10.  In matter of fact if you had to choose one especially from an ENSO standpoint then one would choose 2005.   

If that is the case then we could be set for a few tropical threats plus an epic and potentially dangerous fall severe weather season that could last into the winter months especially from the Mid-South up towards the Great Lakes region.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #81 on: September 08, 2019, 09:34:21 PM »
exactly what I was going bring up... these 90s r slowly getting extended in part October ... before you know it ... we will be flirting with the 90 mark in November ......

We had high 80s in early November in 2016.

Summer just keeps getting longer and longer.

Offline Flash

Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #82 on: September 09, 2019, 08:14:25 AM »
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif

Mega North America Ridge.

Do notice the analogs.  2009, 2004, and 2005 appear 7 out of 10 times.  That is quite impressive.   

People remember 2009-10, but they forget that Fall 2009 was very warm and with the latest freeze on record for Middle TN.  That is not to say that our winter will be like 2009-10.  In matter of fact if you had to choose one especially from an ENSO standpoint then one would choose 2005.   

If that is the case then we could be set for a few tropical threats plus an epic and potentially dangerous fall severe weather season that could last into the winter months especially from the Mid-South up towards the Great Lakes region.   

September/October 2010 was already pretty warm. I think we all know how the following winter/spring went.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Online Crockett

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #83 on: September 09, 2019, 01:17:16 PM »
There have been two partial interstate closures in recent days due to small wildfires in the greater Knoxville area...the first on I-75 in Anderson County on Saturday, and now one on I-40 in Knoxville today.

We could be setting ourselves up for another wild wildfire season if this pattern doesn't break.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #84 on: September 10, 2019, 06:53:48 PM »
Have not had time to dig very deep but the GFS has big changes in about 10 days. It also has a system coming out of the gulf that parks over Tennessee on Monday.

Offline NismoWx

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #85 on: September 10, 2019, 07:43:41 PM »
Very grateful for the rain in Rutherford County right now!! My yard was beginning to crunch under foot.

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Offline dwagner88

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #86 on: September 11, 2019, 09:01:53 AM »
Very grateful for the rain in Rutherford County right now!! My yard was beginning to crunch under foot.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Same. Got a great storm around 9:45 last night with high winds and around an inch of rain. That was the first rain in over 3 weeks here.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #87 on: September 11, 2019, 09:04:33 AM »
Looks like the end of prolonged 90ís is in sight. Back half of September looks to finally shift a trough into the eastern 2/3rds- but not before a hurricane makes a run at the gulf or east coast.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #88 on: September 11, 2019, 10:50:09 AM »
Yes- some of the longer-range forecasts show high temps finally dropping out of the 90s just about in time for astronomical fall in about 10 days. Looks like we're going to have to bake a little while longer before that though, but at least we can look forward to it.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #89 on: September 11, 2019, 11:10:23 AM »
Yes- some of the longer-range forecasts show high temps finally dropping out of the 90s just about in time for astronomical fall in about 10 days. Looks like we're going to have to bake a little while longer before that though, but at least we can look forward to it.
yeah... high temps look to go from mid 90s to upper 80s ... Little bit helps...
Come on severe wx season...

 

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