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Author Topic: Fall 2019  (Read 34049 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #540 on: November 25, 2019, 10:44:42 AM »
The man who cried 'nader!

Post Merge: November 25, 2019, 12:19:41 AM
All crickets...

Bruce? When is this outbreak happening?
saturday has potential get little I interesting... get enough moisture return ahead the trough ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #541 on: November 25, 2019, 01:34:16 PM »
saturday has potential get little I interesting... get enough moisture return ahead the trough ...

hey bruce :)….I noticed that also....there is a day 5 risk up on spc also from OKC down through DFW

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #542 on: November 25, 2019, 02:29:51 PM »
hey bruce :)….I noticed that also....there is a day 5 risk up on spc also from OKC down through DFW
spc has added a slight risk for tomorrow now for most of Arkansas far western tn counties ... couple tornadoes could be included. Low level shear has been modeled to be pretty impressive actually
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #543 on: November 25, 2019, 06:25:17 PM »
I have been busy and not paying attention but I just walked by the TV and heard a Memphis weather man say supercells tomorrow ahead of main line.

Offline Vols1

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #544 on: November 25, 2019, 07:14:32 PM »
What time were they thinking dyer?

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #545 on: November 25, 2019, 07:37:04 PM »
Lol and everyone was making fun of Bruce for seeing this a week in advance. Looks like Bruce was right. Good eye Bruce!

Offline Curt

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #546 on: November 25, 2019, 08:42:31 PM »
Denver to Cheyenne WY- another 18-24 inch snowstorm. Big deal- What’s another storm on the Colorado plains? That area has been rocked so far this year.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #547 on: November 25, 2019, 10:12:04 PM »
Lol and everyone was making fun of Bruce for seeing this a week in advance. Looks like Bruce was right. Good eye Bruce!

Mostly just me. I will eat crow if it materializes!
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #548 on: November 26, 2019, 08:17:47 AM »
Spc
Upgraded to enhanced risk later today for areas along
Ms River
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #549 on: November 26, 2019, 09:26:11 AM »
Lol and everyone was making fun of Bruce for seeing this a week in advance. Looks like Bruce was right. Good eye Bruce!

I "think" they were more talking that it wasn't going to materialize in mid Tennessee....I think several people thought west of our area had a shot at it.....still hardly any cape in our area...they must be basing it all on shear for this event bruce?

Offline Eric

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #550 on: November 26, 2019, 10:32:39 AM »
I "think" they were more talking that it wasn't going to materialize in mid Tennessee....I think several people thought west of our area had a shot at it.....still hardly any cape in our area...they must be basing it all on shear for this event bruce?

Per SPC: "This presents as a classical cold-season, low-CAPE/strong-shear
   scenario..."

Enhanced risk was put into place due to a wind risk, which given the potency of the SLP, was always a possibility.  Few QLCS TORs possible west of the Mississippi.  Any fall/winter season FROPA brings a QLCS risk.  Nothing extraordinary there.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2019, 10:38:35 AM by Eric »
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline gcbama

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #551 on: November 26, 2019, 10:50:47 AM »
Per SPC: "This presents as a classical cold-season, low-CAPE/strong-shear
   scenario..."

Enhanced risk was put into place due to a wind risk, which given the potency of the SLP, was always a possibility.  Few QLCS TORs possible west of the Mississippi.  Any fall/winter season FROPA brings a QLCS risk.  Nothing extraordinary there.

I agree....I saw somebody comment earlier that a tv weather man in Memphis said supercells....I just don't see that happening

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #552 on: November 26, 2019, 11:45:33 AM »
Hypecasting is not forecasting. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #553 on: November 26, 2019, 03:40:42 PM »
Cells coming out of northern. Louisiana starting take more a super cellular look... could sneak in here later especially over the southern half our cwa..
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Fall 2019
« Reply #554 on: November 26, 2019, 04:00:45 PM »
Cells coming out of northern. Louisiana starting take more a super cellular look... could sneak in here later especially over the southern half our cwa..

they are not very individualized/ more like clusters...BUT I will admit I really thought it would all be more bowing segments  so I admit I was wrong on that part lol...I still think the threat is mostly west of TN river

 

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