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Author Topic: December 2019 Discussion  (Read 45916 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #420 on: December 14, 2019, 09:56:44 AM »
Itís alright- the pattern must relax and reload. We had some decent early season threats, with some in the state even cashing in (nothing huge but still). Letís see if the pattern comes back around toward the new year.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #421 on: December 14, 2019, 10:48:12 AM »
0z euro says break out the short sleeve shirts and shorts Christmas... don shoot me... im just a messenger..

Any severe wx in coming months?  Gotta be with tornadoes right.  Want to make sure I donít lose my flip flops to go along with my short sleeves and shorts.  I  am glad Bruce is our seasonal wx forecaster.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #422 on: December 14, 2019, 12:30:39 PM »
Any severe wx in coming months?  Gotta be with tornadoes right.  Want to make sure I donít lose my flip flops to go along with my short sleeves and shorts.  I  am glad Bruce is our seasonal wx forecaster.
don't be looking for your snow shovel anytime soon im afraid. lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #423 on: December 14, 2019, 12:36:38 PM »
MJO has some conflicting info depending on what one looks at. The GEFS has it moving towards cold phases at the end and the Euro has it moving towards warm phase. Until thatís ironed out I wouldnít trust the long term. Itís not a torch minus a transient amplified day or two in between systems. I wouldnít expect severe or winter weather for the next couple weeks.

Offline Thundersnow

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #424 on: December 14, 2019, 12:47:47 PM »
SPC pushes slight severe risk just south of the state on Monday- NWS offices showing thunderstorms on Monday afternoon in TN has we do get warm sectored with highs in the 60s.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #425 on: December 14, 2019, 12:53:14 PM »
SPC pushes slight severe risk just south of the state on Monday- NWS offices showing thunderstorms on Monday afternoon in TN has we do get warm sectored with highs in the 60s.

That warm sector, too. What a contrast.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #426 on: December 14, 2019, 12:57:54 PM »
SPC pushes slight severe risk just south of the state on Monday- NWS offices showing thunderstorms on Monday afternoon in TN has we do get warm sectored with highs in the 60s.
yeah  slp to far south
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #427 on: December 14, 2019, 04:48:26 PM »
Itís a little early but the 3k Nam is spitting out some 3-5 inch rain totals along 40 from Memphis to Nashville on the on the boundary just behind the leading edge of the warm sector. Looks Monday is rainy and low 40ís if this is the case with those in southern middle and southeast TN in the 60ís to near 70. St Louis is going to get walloped with 6-10 inches of snow.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #428 on: December 15, 2019, 07:49:03 AM »
The low-pressure system is taking that perfect track where it is too far north for any winter weather and too far south for any severe weather for the state.  Therefore for most it is a cold rain with a bit of a warmer rain for southern and southeastern TN. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #429 on: December 15, 2019, 10:00:08 AM »
The low-pressure system is taking that perfect track where it is too far north for any winter weather and too far south for any severe weather for the state.  Therefore for most it is a cold rain with a bit of a warmer rain for southern and southeastern TN.
exactly... don't u just love it... cold rain. >:D I would say hurry up come on spring , but I forgot, it just be 40s to lo 50s in april with some more cold rains, then we just go right into the summer heat mid may... seems like all the action misses us... that being winter storms and severe weather..., just seems like were stuck in this pattern it just keeps repeating itself wash, lather, rinse... repeat.
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #430 on: December 15, 2019, 10:39:55 AM »
Looks like living along or north of I70 is where it's at.

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #431 on: December 15, 2019, 03:16:41 PM »
The NAO looks to be neutral to slightly negative.

The AO looks to be negative and rising to neutral by the end of the month.

The PNA looks to be neutral to slightly negative

The EPO will be positive

The MJO we are unsure of heading into New Years.

Overall above average temperatures, but the real torching should only be confined to a day or two ahead of a storm system.  More like Dec 2008 and 2014 and less like Dec 2015, 2016, and 2018.

The evolution of the MJO and trying to get the EPO back to negative will determine how the first half of January pans out. Everything else should be a neutral or perhaps favorable for winter weather in January but we know that a bad MJO/EPO/PNA (and other Pacific measures) can somewhat overwhelm favorable things on the Atlantic side. There are reasons for cautious optimism.   

For now I won't worry about any of it till after Christmas.   
« Last Edit: December 15, 2019, 03:18:19 PM by StormNine »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #432 on: December 15, 2019, 03:33:55 PM »
The NAO looks to be neutral to slightly negative.

The AO looks to be negative and rising to neutral by the end of the month.

The PNA looks to be neutral to slightly negative

The EPO will be positive

The MJO we are unsure of heading into New Years.

Overall above average temperatures, but the real torching should only be confined to a day or two ahead of a storm system.  More like Dec 2008 and 2014 and less like Dec 2015, 2016, and 2018.

The evolution of the MJO and trying to get the EPO back to negative will determine how the first half of January pans out. Everything else should be a neutral or perhaps favorable for winter weather in January but we know that a bad MJO/EPO/PNA (and other Pacific measures) can somewhat overwhelm favorable things on the Atlantic side. There are reasons for cautious optimism.   

For now I won't worry about any of it till after Christmas.
the mjo and epo is killing us... pacific is just total garbage, going take some major changes to get into a favorable winter storm pattern.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2019, 03:39:27 PM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #433 on: December 15, 2019, 04:05:32 PM »
Looks like living along or north of I70 is where it's at.

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #434 on: December 15, 2019, 04:09:02 PM »
Pretty sure Iím moving to Indianapolis.
I had a great opportunity to move to st.louis few years ago..., that would made winter more interesting for me
Come on severe wx season...

 

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