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Author Topic: December 2019 Discussion  (Read 77857 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #360 on: December 08, 2019, 04:28:08 PM »
OHX might be changing their tune a bit:

Quote
Tuesday
Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 4pm. High near 42. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #361 on: December 08, 2019, 04:38:21 PM »
From OHX this afternoon...

Quote
Behind the cold front, things get interesting. Models are
producing quite a bit of post frontal QPF thanks to southwesterly
upper flow and a strong jet streak to the north of the area. This
will leave Middle Tennessee in the right entrance region of that
jet streak Tuesday/Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop through
the day on Tuesday and rain will transition to snow with a period
of sleet possible in between. Models, besides the Euro, seem bullish
with the snow amounts. There`s a couple of reasons for that.
Omega in the snow growth region is quite impressive for the
Tuesday time frame and frontogenesis is strong due our positioning
relative to the jet streak.

With any winter weather setup in Middle Tennessee, there are
always some potential red flags. First and the most frequent
question with post frontal snow events around here is how long
will moisture stick around. Model soundings show the low levels
beginning to dry out a couple hours after the rain to snow
transition. Seeder feeder processes may prolong the snow a couple
more hours, but it is something to take note of. Second, it will
take some time or decent snowfall rates to get snow to begin to
accumulate given warm, wet surfaces. Lastly, if there is a
prolonged transition from rain to sleet to snow, that will
obviously cut down on snow amounts. All this leads to a low
confidence forecast at this time, but we trended toward a slightly
snowier forecast. For most of the area, the current forecast is
for less than an inch. The northern Plateau and along the Kentucky
border could see a little more than an inch. There is plenty that
could change over the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.     
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Offline EastTNWX

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #362 on: December 08, 2019, 04:45:08 PM »
Iím surprised thereís no thread yet, this looks like itís turning into a legit winter event.

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #363 on: December 08, 2019, 04:47:29 PM »
Iím surprised thereís no thread yet, this looks like itís turning into a legit winter event.
I would personally wait until the 0z products tonight, but thats just me. Get a little more clarity imo.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #364 on: December 08, 2019, 04:52:49 PM »
Iím surprised thereís no thread yet, this looks like itís turning into a legit winter event.

If one isnít made by the time I wake up tomorrow morning Iíll start one.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #365 on: December 08, 2019, 04:53:29 PM »
I would personally wait until the 0z products tonight, but thats just me. Get a little more clarity imo.
your within 48 hours already bro.. time ... lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #366 on: December 08, 2019, 07:41:01 PM »
ok so....another cold chasing moisture situation...I usually don't ever believe these until I see it, I can only remember one or two times that I got more than 2 inches of snow with these, but it does bear watching....if we could get a little more than normal post frontal moisture we could be onto something

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #367 on: December 10, 2019, 06:39:33 AM »
Right where we want it at this time frame. At 7 days out. You never wanna be in the bullseye at 7 days out. Lol.



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Offline Thundersnow

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #368 on: December 10, 2019, 07:11:03 AM »
Right where we want it at this time frame. At 7 days out. You never wanna be in the bullseye at 7 days out. Lol.



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...except, I would rather it be further southeast because of a general tendency toward a northwest trend.

Rarely have I seen snow to the north trend back in our direction. Give me more a suppressed solution and let the deep southerners get excited and then see if it ďcorrectsĒ more our direction.

If the rain/snow line is already north of us at this range, then the game was already over before it started. JMO.

Maybe weíll get more a dip in the jet stream than what weíre seeing here.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2019, 07:29:20 AM by Thundersnow »
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

Offline Clay

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #369 on: December 10, 2019, 07:43:13 AM »
IIRC we reeled in the 2016 snowstorm in from the north.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #370 on: December 10, 2019, 08:00:54 AM »
BAMWX on Twitter showing a nice cross polar flow from Siberia into Canada and down into the Eastern half. Pattern evolution looking good for late December into early January.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1204142478632333313
Quote
Things are starting to look interesting leading up to the holidays..not only do we see a big storm brewing  but we think changes await for durable cold in the central/eastern US. The idea is there & were not backing off it but we don't have a specific time frame YET. #natgas

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #371 on: December 10, 2019, 08:15:01 AM »
Eps model advertising a negative nao toward end month... we need that bad ... maybe fun times ahead if so...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #372 on: December 10, 2019, 08:43:32 AM »
Eps model advertising a negative nao toward end month... we need that bad ... maybe fun times ahead if so...

Winter optimism from Bruce? It's a Christmas miracle.  ::evillaugh::

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #373 on: December 10, 2019, 08:47:36 AM »
Winter optimism from Bruce? It's a Christmas miracle.  ::evillaugh::
there really is a Santa Claus... lol. But thatís what itís showing for now...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Michael

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #374 on: December 10, 2019, 09:32:27 AM »
Eps model advertising a negative nao toward end month... we need that bad ... maybe fun times ahead if so...
But what phase will MJO be in?


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