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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 21340 times)

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Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #255 on: December 01, 2019, 04:29:35 PM »
December is looking to run mild, but not as mild as 2018 and definitely not as mild as 2015.  We will get some cool shots in between and it doesn't look like an extreme constant blowtorch.  The subtropical jet is going to get active as well.  Let us get through any unfavorable MJO runs and the unfavorable Pacific and it looks like we should have a chance to get things more favorable by around New Years.   

I think 2006 and 2014 are the best analogs for this month.

In the short term the Cumberland Plateau has some potential tomorrow morning to get a little early December gift.

2006 and 2007 were pretty toasty for BNA from what I can recall. 2014 was more seasonal though still AN. Speaking of 2014, if you broaden out 'winter' to November-March, the 2014-15 analog looks decent through two months. Outside QBO/MJO doing something drastic, it makes sense to think patterns will take their 30-45 day turns with a weak ENSO. Either way, I expect December to be overcast mild as opposed to sunny warm.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #256 on: December 01, 2019, 05:27:44 PM »
If 2014. 2015 is a good analog... going have to wait till March  to get the goods ::snowman::...  thatís how that winter went
« Last Edit: December 01, 2019, 07:53:10 PM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #257 on: December 01, 2019, 05:47:22 PM »
December is usually pretty warm in weak niŮo or neutral patterns. I guess its about the mjo, qbo, and other things moving forward. The SSW will probably take a while to get going because, imo, the qbo is still westerly and usually easterly is best. Its fun tracking winter storms when we have chances here, but we are in the south.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #258 on: December 01, 2019, 08:24:47 PM »
December is usually pretty warm in weak niŮo or neutral patterns. I guess its about the mjo, qbo, and other things moving forward. The SSW will probably take a while to get going because, imo, the qbo is still westerly and usually easterly is best. Its fun tracking winter storms when we have chances here, but we are in the south.
yeah we. Got a ways to go get the patternwe want mr. golf.  Agree...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #259 on: December 01, 2019, 08:55:18 PM »
If 2014. 2015 is a good analog... going have to wait till March  to get the goods ::snowman::...  thatís how that winter went


Bruce you should start your own wx site.  Just call it fantasy tornado outbreaks.  Spare us all your negative crap you spew.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #260 on: December 01, 2019, 09:11:42 PM »

Bruce you should start your own wx site.  Just call it fantasy tornado outbreaks.  Spare us all your negative crap you spew.
someone sounds like they got their little panties in wad... what happened  ? Bama loose ? Lmao
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #261 on: December 01, 2019, 09:26:20 PM »
Getting a little salty up in here


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To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #262 on: December 01, 2019, 09:34:25 PM »
The biggest fights on TNWX happen in December. Last year, I got into it with a flat earther in what became a days-long charade of sh1tposting
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #263 on: December 02, 2019, 02:22:05 AM »
Just 3-4į cooler and we would be getting some accumulation here. Very nice solid area of snow moving across us currently.
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #264 on: December 02, 2019, 04:59:50 AM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Classic El-Nino like December pattern mid-month.  Gulf of Alaska trough, subtropical jet signal with the weaker heights from Baja California to Texas, and Pacific air flooding North America. 

Looks cloudy and damp so that will prevent us from going full blown torch and more of a situation like Flash described.  A lot of 55/40F like days with clouds. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #265 on: December 02, 2019, 05:36:34 AM »
 ::sleeping::
(Attachment Link)

Classic El-Nino like December pattern mid-month.  Gulf of Alaska trough, subtropical jet signal with the weaker heights from Baja California to Texas, and Pacific air flooding North America. 

Looks cloudy and damp so that will prevent us from going full blown torch and more of a situation like Flash described.  A lot of 55/40F like days with clouds.
::sleeping::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #266 on: December 02, 2019, 07:36:02 AM »
::sleeping:: ::sleeping::
Just a thought here, Bruce. I get why someone might give you some grief when you dump all over their post despite the fact they could so the same every time you post about a severe weather event that doesnít happen. Add in the difficulty to read one of your posts and it makes even more sense. Maybe you can show the same courtesy others give you despite? Maybe if you take some time to use some restraint and post substance over fragment, others will react differently. Youíre knowledgeable and can add value which others would appreciate.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2019, 08:04:13 AM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #267 on: December 02, 2019, 08:18:00 AM »
Just a thought here, Bruce. I get why someone might give you some grief when you dump all over their post despite the fact they could so the same every time you post about a severe weather event that doesnít happen. Add in the difficulty to read one of your posts and it makes even more sense. Maybe you can show the same courtesy others give you despite? Maybe if you take some time to use some restraint and post substance over fragment, others will react differently. Youíre knowledgeable and can add value which others would appreciate.
curt to be honest... itís hard bro... when ur as passionate as I am when it comes to weather... Iím the same way when it comes to my sports too. Donít mean to be such a influence on this forum ... Itís hard to hide my passion when it comes to weather . There is nothing we can do about either ... just maybe I need step back and take a long break since weíre heading into a crummy pattern , besides work fixing to get extremely buisy for me
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #268 on: December 02, 2019, 08:32:29 AM »
There was some elevation-driven sticking overnight. I'm noticing the hills above Brentwood are "frosted" this morning... looks like a dusting stuck to the trees up the hill a few hundred feet.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #269 on: December 02, 2019, 06:04:15 PM »
The biggest fights on TNWX happen in December. Last year, I got into it with a flat earther in what became a days-long charade of sh1tposting

Some people believe we live in a simulation and they can make interesting arguments for it. Oddly that viewpoint isnt viewed with nearly the disdain that flat Earth is. Why?

No, I don't believe it is flat or a simulation, but I find it interesting people get so worked up over others believing it is flat.

Our current lack of understanding of gravity has led us to make wild assumptions about dark energy and dark matter, neither of which have been found. No matter what you believe on this topic, a lot of it is built on faith.

 

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