December 2019 Discussion

[BRUCE]

Latest Epps long range will make most folks very happy around here...

[Eric]

Latest Epps long range will make most folks very happy around here...

Only Epps I'm aware of....

[StormNine]

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That Arctic Blocking looks like Gold.  If the increased heights were closer to the West Coast of Canada and the USA we would be absolutely golden headed into winter. 

[Curt]

Don’t look now....but a major SSW (strat warm) looks possible by early December. Hehe.

Maybe we will actually fare better this go around than one day of arctic air vs last year’s fiasco.

[Mr. Golf]

Don’t look now....but a major SSW (strat warm) looks possible by early December. Hehe.

Maybe we will actually fare better this go around than one day of arctic air vs last year’s fiasco.

Curt, i know JB has been excited about the chances of one like he usually is about anything like that lol. The -pna, imo, won't help us for a while due to the fact it puts too much troughing along the west coast. Not sure if its attributable to the unfavorable mjo phases. I believe we should have a few winter storm chances here, but i am always happy with just one, since we are in the south.

[TNHunter]

Still long way out but GFS been showing a winter weather event around December 7-8.  Still fantasy land right now but nice to see.

[Curt]

Curt, i know JB has been excited about the chances of one like he usually is about anything like that lol. The -pna, imo, won't help us for a while due to the fact it puts too much troughing along the west coast. Not sure if its attributable to the unfavorable mjo phases. I believe we should have a few winter storm chances here, but i am always happy with just one, since we are in the south.

If a SSW helps, the lag time is usually a few weeks behind. We wouldn’t see effects- if any- until mid December. That’s why a SSW in February is pointless for our area. The SSW of December 1984- early 1985 is by far the best example of cashing in. They don’t always work out though depending on size and position of displacement.

[Mr. Golf]

If a SSW helps, the lag time is usually a few weeks behind. We wouldn’t see effects- if any- until mid December. That’s why a SSW in February is pointless for our area. The SSW of December 1984- early 1985 is by far the best example of cashing in. They don’t always work out though depending on size and position of displacement.

I agree curt. SSW events are tricky. We had a major event last winter but other things threw it off from what i understand. 84 85 was one of the best examples. I was only 5 so i dont remember it very good. Dr. Furtado from UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA said the Pacific has to cooperate for the SSW to be effective for us. He posts alot on twitter.

[StormNine]

The end of November/beginning of December pattern looks to really favor the out West Ski Resorts that did very well last winter.   

A -PNA, forming -EPO ridge near the southern Alaskan coast, and some Northern Hemisphere blocking should bring the cold.  An active subtropical jet due to a borderline El-Nino should provide the moisture.

Congrats Sierra Nevada and the ski resorts of Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.   

[Nashville_Wx]

The end of November/beginning of December pattern looks to really favor the out West Ski Resorts that did very well last winter.   

A -PNA, forming -EPO ridge near the southern Alaskan coast, and some Northern Hemisphere blocking should bring the cold.  An active subtropical jet due to a borderline El-Nino should provide the moisture.

Congrats Sierra Nevada and the ski resorts of Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.

Yup, heading to Tahoe and Mammoth for PSIA clinics, Glen Plake being one which I am super stoked about. Snowfall has been pretty rare this season in the Sierras so this up coming cycle should hopefully help. But I have my own concerns there going into the extended. Rockies are in the right spot, esp CO. December may start off a bit slow and ramp up with some chances of notable snowfall. For now let it rip along the West coast!

[Thundersnow]

As we close in on winter model watching season, just a reminder to guard your excitement in the coming weeks.

[schneitzeit]

Curse you for bringing that meme in here

[snowdog]

Curse you for bringing that meme in here

I agree. One week ban for Thundersnow.

[Curt]

QBO quickly going easterly(negative). That’s a huge change from this time last year at the same time.

[Flash]

QBO quickly going easterly(negative). That’s a huge change from this time last year at the same time.

Yeah, that was a fatal nail most winter forecasts missed due to the timing of event vs. issuance. Let's hope this pattern continues.