December 2019 Discussion

[BRUCE]

Seasonal forecasting is tough.  There are just too many variables that can pop up with short lead times that are very hard to forecast more than a couple of weeks out.  Someone mentioned Isotherm’s forecast for this winter which isn’t very promising at all.  However, I believe he like many other seasonal forecasters didn’t fare very well last winter.  I certainly can’t argue with his reasoning for his forecast but I just don’t think we’ve gotten to the point where we can predict what will happen over a 3 month period with a lot of accuracy.  Besides, we’ve scored many times in the past with certain indices in the “wrong” phase.  No two winters are ever really the same so I guess my point is to enjoy the season and who knows what it will bring us..

agree with u... hard to get excited when 90 percent the winter forecast not calling but warm ... I like winter much as next guy... just jaded guess...

[Crockett]

Can I just remind everyone that NOAA was originally forecasting a warm November? We see how well that's turning out.

Besides, it only takes one blockbuster event to make even a mild winter memorable. Case in point: the dynamic cooling storm of February 1998. I'll grant you that was a relatively narrow-scale event that didn't impact much of this board, but Winter 1997-1998 had been quite mild and uneventful (January featured +5 temps) until that event, which was the most spectacular snowstorm of my lifetime here on the Cumberland Plateau. And 1992-1993 was a complete dud before the blizzard. Temps were slightly below normal in December and February, but with no snow to show for it, and we were +6 in January during the heart of winter. Then came March...I'm pretty sure just about anyone on this board would be satisfied to torch through most of winter if it meant getting a repeat of the Blizzard of '93.

[gcbama]

Can I just remind everyone that NOAA was originally forecasting a warm November? We see how well that's turning out.

Besides, it only takes one blockbuster event to make even a mild winter memorable. Case in point: the dynamic cooling storm of February 1998. I'll grant you that was a relatively narrow-scale event that didn't impact much of this board, but Winter 1997-1998 had been quite mild and uneventful (January featured +5 temps) until that event, which was the most spectacular snowstorm of my lifetime here on the Cumberland Plateau. And 1992-1993 was a complete dud before the blizzard. Temps were slightly below normal in December and February, but with no snow to show for it, and we were +6 in January during the heart of winter. Then came March...I'm pretty sure just about anyone on this board would be satisfied to torch through most of winter if it meant getting a repeat of the Blizzard of '93.

Agreed, "seasonal forecasts" mean nothing in the day to day.
You can look for model "trends" for up to 5 days out but it is not a forecast in my opinion...I don't think winter precip should really be "forecasted" unless there is big time model agreement 36-48 hours out and even then it can still be a bust either way, last year proved that BIG time.

I am ready for a "positive" bust like 2003 that type of bust hasn't happened in a while lol

[joemomma]

Our geographic location has a lot to do with difficulty in forecasting here.  If you're further north, or south, you don't have the "battlegrounds" that we get here.  It's either cold or warm, generally, without the frequent transitions we get here.

[bugalou]

There is actually a mention of winter weather with the arctic fropa next week for the west side of the state.  Will be brief anafrontal style of event but encouraging for early November!   

[Curt]

There is actually a mention of winter weather with the arctic fropa next week for the west side of the state.  Will be brief anafrontal style of event but encouraging for early November!   

I think some light sleet/ freezing rain/ snow is a decent bet post front. It’s been on models globals for quite some time. Nothing to write home about but nice to see the arctic open again. We should be near record lows too.

[Michael]

12z Euro with 1st 10-Day clown map of the season (for the Plateau)


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[snowdog]

12z Euro with 1st 10-Day clown map of the season (for the Plateau)

Upper Level Low, may the odds be ever in your favor.

[Michael]

Upper Level Low, may the odds be ever in your favor.

I need it to hit the Northern Valley area. Near Rogersville. I’ll gladly accept a dusting this early in the season lol.


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[joemomma]

Big South Fork looks to be in the "sweet spot" - be a fantastic start to my hiking/camping season were it to verify.

[StormNine]

It does look like a bit of a common ground has formed as far as the long range outlooks go.

Last year it was a colder and snowier than normal Southeast which went not well at all.

2017-18 it was a battleground winter with both cold and warm periods which decently verified.   

This winter it appears that most long-range forecasters are going with a 2017-18 and 2014-15 mix. Featuring a colder than normal Northern and Central USA (some including mine extend into NW Tennessee) and a warmer than normal area closer to the Southeast coast with most of Tennessee being in the in between zone with far East trending warmer than average and NW trending a bit colder than average. 

It also appears that we return to another winter of wetter than average as well. 

As far as my outlook I will still go with it but I would probably flip December and January with December being the mild one and January being the cold central and averageish to even a bit above average west and east of the two major mountain changes. 

That means we get another shot at seeing if we can score in Feb/Early March.   

[BRUCE]

Mjo should be heading into the warm phase just time for December ... 

[StormNine]

I am going all in.  I am a winter weather weenie and we will have Fab Feb and will not be denied no longer 


The final outlook
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Since we have out winter threat I will see if I can do better with the anomalies again.  Since we are acting like a Nino, since we might have a more neutral NAO and at times negative, and since we should have an overall -EPO I will again go with a very similar forecast that I had last winter.  We also have an active northern stream even more so than this time last year and with a low solar min may help counteract the impacts of climate change. 

I truly think that once we get past Christmas or New Years at the latest that areas like Springfield, MO; St Louis, MO; Chicago, IL; Tulsa, OK; will have a brutal stretch as they will be sandwiched in part by the EPO ridge to the West and either some sort of Greenland Block or a West Atlantic Ridge to the East. This brutal cold will likely extend into Kentucky and Tennessee (especially the western portions) at times. I am encouraged by SST trends in the Central and Northeastern Pacific that could lead to an Aluentian Island Low (we had a H Pressure there the last few winters instead) that could strengthen the ridge along the coast of Alaska to Washington State.   

Analog Wise I am looking at some mix of 1940-41, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2006-07, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18 but with a slightly stronger SE Ridge that will push the coldest departures more towards the I-44 and I-55 zones instead of the I-81 zone.





Post Merge: November 10, 2019, 02:05:33 PMThe Wolly Worm said so as well. 

My for fun departures:

Memphis:
DEC: +5.0F
JAN: - 1.5F
FEB: - 6.0F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches 

Nashville:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN:  -0.5F
FEB:  -4.5F 
Total Snowfall: 9.0 Inches

Knoxville:
DEC: +4.9F
JAN:  AVERAGE
FEB:  -2.9F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches

Chattanooga:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN: -0.2F
FEB: -2.5F
Total Snowfall: 4.9 Inches   

Bowling Green, KY
DEC: +5.0F
JAN:  AVERAGE
FEB:  -4.9F 
Total Snowfall: 7.9 Inches   


Other Cities for fun:

Springfield, MO
DEC: +5.9F
JAN: -3.5F
FEB: -10.0F   
Total Snowfall: 37.5 Inches 

Salt Lake City, UT
DEC: +4.0F
JAN:  -1.0F
FEB: +0.5F
Total Snowfall: 37.0 Inches 

Atlanta, GA
DEC: +3.5F
JAN:  +0.9F
FEB:  -1.9F
Total Snowfall: 1.5 Inches 




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[Mr. Golf]

I am going all in.  I am a winter weather weenie and we will have Fab Feb and will not be denied no longer 


The final outlook
(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)
(Attachment Link)

Since we have out winter threat I will see if I can do better with the anomalies again.  Since we are acting like a Nino, since we might have a more neutral NAO and at times negative, and since we should have an overall -EPO I will again go with a very similar forecast that I had last winter.  We also have an active northern stream even more so than this time last year and with a low solar min may help counteract the impacts of climate change. 

I truly think that once we get past Christmas or New Years at the latest that areas like Springfield, MO; St Louis, MO; Chicago, IL; Tulsa, OK; will have a brutal stretch as they will be sandwiched in part by the EPO ridge to the West and either some sort of Greenland Block or a West Atlantic Ridge to the East. This brutal cold will likely extend into Kentucky and Tennessee (especially the western portions) at times. I am encouraged by SST trends in the Central and Northeastern Pacific that could lead to an Aluentian Island Low (we had a H Pressure there the last few winters instead) that could strengthen the ridge along the coast of Alaska to Washington State.   

Analog Wise I am looking at some mix of 1940-41, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2006-07, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18 but with a slightly stronger SE Ridge that will push the coldest departures more towards the I-44 and I-55 zones instead of the I-81 zone.





Post Merge: November 10, 2019, 02:05:33 PMThe Wolly Worm said so as well. 

My for fun departures:

Memphis:
DEC: +5.0F
JAN: - 1.5F
FEB: - 6.0F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches 

Nashville:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN:  -0.5F
FEB:  -4.5F 
Total Snowfall: 9.0 Inches

Knoxville:
DEC: +4.9F
JAN:  AVERAGE
FEB:  -2.9F
Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches

Chattanooga:
DEC: +4.5F
JAN: -0.2F
FEB: -2.5F
Total Snowfall: 4.9 Inches   

Bowling Green, KY
DEC: +5.0F
JAN:  AVERAGE
FEB:  -4.9F 
Total Snowfall: 7.9 Inches   


Other Cities for fun:

Springfield, MO
DEC: +5.9F
JAN: -3.5F
FEB: -10.0F   
Total Snowfall: 37.5 Inches 

Salt Lake City, UT
DEC: +4.0F
JAN:  -1.0F
FEB: +0.5F
Total Snowfall: 37.0 Inches 

Atlanta, GA
DEC: +3.5F
JAN:  +0.9F
FEB:  -1.9F
Total Snowfall: 1.5 Inches

Hi steven. I have a question. Which phases of mjo are the best for us in regards to winter weather? I think they are 8-2, but wasn't totally sure. People claim we are in a modoki elniño, but i didn't think so lol.

[Curt]

Hi steven. I have a question. Which phases of mjo are the best for us in regards to winter weather? I think they are 8-2, but wasn't totally sure. People claim we are in a modoki elniño, but i didn't think so lol.

MJO: 8-3 usually result in the colder phases East of the Rockies from Nov- Feb.

Here’s the El Niño Modoki index per JAMSTEC: