NismoWx, bearsfan85, memphishogfan, Curt, tnormfrank, Charles L., cbrentv318, jeh, Eric, Coach B (+ 1 Hidden) and 10 Guests are viewing this topic.
Seasonal forecasting is tough. There are just too many variables that can pop up with short lead times that are very hard to forecast more than a couple of weeks out. Someone mentioned Isotherm’s forecast for this winter which isn’t very promising at all. However, I believe he like many other seasonal forecasters didn’t fare very well last winter. I certainly can’t argue with his reasoning for his forecast but I just don’t think we’ve gotten to the point where we can predict what will happen over a 3 month period with a lot of accuracy. Besides, we’ve scored many times in the past with certain indices in the “wrong” phase. No two winters are ever really the same so I guess my point is to enjoy the season and who knows what it will bring us..
Can I just remind everyone that NOAA was originally forecasting a warm November? We see how well that's turning out. Besides, it only takes one blockbuster event to make even a mild winter memorable. Case in point: the dynamic cooling storm of February 1998. I'll grant you that was a relatively narrow-scale event that didn't impact much of this board, but Winter 1997-1998 had been quite mild and uneventful (January featured +5 temps) until that event, which was the most spectacular snowstorm of my lifetime here on the Cumberland Plateau. And 1992-1993 was a complete dud before the blizzard. Temps were slightly below normal in December and February, but with no snow to show for it, and we were +6 in January during the heart of winter. Then came March...I'm pretty sure just about anyone on this board would be satisfied to torch through most of winter if it meant getting a repeat of the Blizzard of '93.
There is actually a mention of winter weather with the arctic fropa next week for the west side of the state. Will be brief anafrontal style of event but encouraging for early November!
12z Euro with 1st 10-Day clown map of the season (for the Plateau)
Upper Level Low, may the odds be ever in your favor.
I am going all in. I am a winter weather weenie and we will have Fab Feb and will not be denied no longer The final outlook (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link) Since we have out winter threat I will see if I can do better with the anomalies again. Since we are acting like a Nino, since we might have a more neutral NAO and at times negative, and since we should have an overall -EPO I will again go with a very similar forecast that I had last winter. We also have an active northern stream even more so than this time last year and with a low solar min may help counteract the impacts of climate change. I truly think that once we get past Christmas or New Years at the latest that areas like Springfield, MO; St Louis, MO; Chicago, IL; Tulsa, OK; will have a brutal stretch as they will be sandwiched in part by the EPO ridge to the West and either some sort of Greenland Block or a West Atlantic Ridge to the East. This brutal cold will likely extend into Kentucky and Tennessee (especially the western portions) at times. I am encouraged by SST trends in the Central and Northeastern Pacific that could lead to an Aluentian Island Low (we had a H Pressure there the last few winters instead) that could strengthen the ridge along the coast of Alaska to Washington State. Analog Wise I am looking at some mix of 1940-41, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2003-04, 2006-07, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2017-18 but with a slightly stronger SE Ridge that will push the coldest departures more towards the I-44 and I-55 zones instead of the I-81 zone. Post Merge: November 10, 2019, 02:05:33 PMThe Wolly Worm said so as well. My for fun departures:Memphis:DEC: +5.0FJAN: - 1.5FFEB: - 6.0F Total Snowfall: 7.5 Inches Nashville:DEC: +4.5FJAN: -0.5FFEB: -4.5F Total Snowfall: 9.0 Inches Knoxville:DEC: +4.9FJAN: AVERAGEFEB: -2.9FTotal Snowfall: 7.5 Inches Chattanooga:DEC: +4.5FJAN: -0.2FFEB: -2.5FTotal Snowfall: 4.9 Inches Bowling Green, KYDEC: +5.0FJAN: AVERAGEFEB: -4.9F Total Snowfall: 7.9 Inches Other Cities for fun:Springfield, MODEC: +5.9FJAN: -3.5FFEB: -10.0F Total Snowfall: 37.5 Inches Salt Lake City, UTDEC: +4.0FJAN: -1.0FFEB: +0.5FTotal Snowfall: 37.0 Inches Atlanta, GADEC: +3.5FJAN: +0.9FFEB: -1.9FTotal Snowfall: 1.5 Inches
Hi steven. I have a question. Which phases of mjo are the best for us in regards to winter weather? I think they are 8-2, but wasn't totally sure. People claim we are in a modoki elniño, but i didn't think so lol.