December 2019 Discussion

[bugalou]

sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..

The data out there shows its minor, but everything I have seen does not combine other factors.  There is not a lot of data here and I think calling it over rated is premature.
More over this does not factor minor changes in Earth's orbit from year to year.  Considering the the ice ages are thought to be caused by earth's orbit extending further out from the sun, and the fact that they are regular occurrences it would back some sort of long term oscillation in earth's mean distance from the sun. 

[StormNine]

The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.   

[snowdog]

The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.

I disagree. We don't even fully understand solar and it's impact. For the first time the IPCC will have solar forcings in their model output. A good video on solar forcings and climate change https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA

[BRUCE]

Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we’re close to way above average  category... not much suprise to be honest

[Clarksville Snowman]

That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best.   

[Flash]

Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we’re close to way above average  category... not much suprise to be honest

This is actually GREAT news for our prospects here (i.e. Winter 2010-11 started with predictions September/October). Whatever the consensus is for the southeast, usually the opposite happens.

[schneitzeit]

... not to far we’re close to way above average  category... not much suprise to be honest

Wut

[BRUCE]

That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best.   

nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....

[Clarksville Snowman]

 

nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....

I think I will wait and see how it shakes before I take a October long range forecast to heart. And even if they are right on overall temps it does not mean we won't have winter weather.   

[StormNine]

nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....

NOAA busted big time last winter as well because they went Average for the SE and had the highest probabilities of Above Average is like Montana, Idaho, etc.   

[Curt]

ENSO 3.4 pushing moderate El Niño territory with the huge SOI drop over the last 2 months. The pacific is cold east and warm central to west. A weak El Niño in the official region of 3.4 looks likely now. The NE PAC is still warm which is driving the negative EPO. If this continues which it should- the implications for arctic outbreaks should be on the upswing.

[BRUCE]

ENSO 3.4 pushing moderate El Niño territory with the huge SOI drop over the last 2 months. The pacific is cold east and warm central to west. A weak El Niño in the official region of 3.4 looks likely now. The NE PAC is still warm which is driving the negative EPO. If this continues which it should- the implications for arctic outbreaks should be on the upswing.

which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...

[bugalou]

which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...

I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.

[StormNine]

Parts of Montana have -15F departures for October.  There is definitely some cold air somewhere.   

[Flash]

I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.

I was thinking exactly the same thing when I ready his suppression remark. Usually, someone in our state/region cashes in during 'suppression winters'...or rather winters we find ourselves mentioning it more than once. Last winter I feel suppression was a major issue was 2013-14.