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Author Topic: December 2019 Discussion  (Read 101671 times)

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Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #75 on: October 10, 2019, 11:45:32 AM »
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..

The data out there shows its minor, but everything I have seen does not combine other factors.  There is not a lot of data here and I think calling it over rated is premature.
More over this does not factor minor changes in Earth's orbit from year to year.  Considering the the ice ages are thought to be caused by earth's orbit extending further out from the sun, and the fact that they are regular occurrences it would back some sort of long term oscillation in earth's mean distance from the sun. 

Online StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #76 on: October 10, 2019, 03:11:57 PM »
The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.   

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #77 on: October 11, 2019, 07:36:23 AM »
The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.

I disagree. We don't even fully understand solar and it's impact. For the first time the IPCC will have solar forcings in their model output. A good video on solar forcings and climate change https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 07:39:43 AM by snowdog »

Online Bruce

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #78 on: October 18, 2019, 08:02:09 AM »
Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #79 on: October 18, 2019, 09:01:36 AM »
That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best.  ::guitar::  ::snowman:: ::cold::

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #80 on: October 18, 2019, 09:08:32 AM »
Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #81 on: October 18, 2019, 09:50:25 AM »
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online Bruce

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #82 on: October 18, 2019, 10:42:43 AM »
That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best.  ::guitar::  ::snowman:: ::cold::
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #83 on: October 18, 2019, 04:37:46 PM »
 ::applause::
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....
I think I will wait and see how it shakes before I take a October long range forecast to heart. And even if they are right on overall temps it does not mean we won't have winter weather.  ::popcorn::  ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::cold::
« Last Edit: October 18, 2019, 04:40:14 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Online StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #84 on: October 18, 2019, 05:14:43 PM »
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....

NOAA busted big time last winter as well because they went Average for the SE and had the highest probabilities of Above Average is like Montana, Idaho, etc.   

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #85 on: October 22, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
ENSO 3.4 pushing moderate El Ni
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 01:46:38 PM by Curt »

Online Bruce

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #86 on: October 22, 2019, 02:37:17 PM »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #87 on: October 23, 2019, 04:37:52 PM »
which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...

I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.

Online StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #88 on: October 23, 2019, 05:28:22 PM »
Parts of Montana have -15F departures for October.  There is definitely some cold air somewhere.   

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #89 on: October 23, 2019, 08:02:11 PM »
I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.

I was thinking exactly the same thing when I ready his suppression remark. Usually, someone in our state/region cashes in during 'suppression winters'...or rather winters we find ourselves mentioning it more than once. Last winter I feel suppression was a major issue was 2013-14.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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