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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 26660 times)

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Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #75 on: October 10, 2019, 11:45:32 AM »
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..

The data out there shows its minor, but everything I have seen does not combine other factors.  There is not a lot of data here and I think calling it over rated is premature.
More over this does not factor minor changes in Earth's orbit from year to year.  Considering the the ice ages are thought to be caused by earth's orbit extending further out from the sun, and the fact that they are regular occurrences it would back some sort of long term oscillation in earth's mean distance from the sun. 

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #76 on: October 10, 2019, 03:11:57 PM »
The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.   

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #77 on: October 11, 2019, 07:36:23 AM »
The space features are important like sunspot data.  The question becomes how much does the cooling influence of the sunspots compare to the warming influence of climate change/global warming.  I think the climate forcing is probably stronger than the solar, but that doesn't mean that we need to ignore the solar forcings as it may impact things like having an active northern jet stream which play a huge role in how our cool season goes down.

I disagree. We don't even fully understand solar and it's impact. For the first time the IPCC will have solar forcings in their model output. A good video on solar forcings and climate change https://youtu.be/rEWoPzaDmOA
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 07:39:43 AM by snowdog »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #78 on: October 18, 2019, 08:02:09 AM »
Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we’re close to way above average  category... not much suprise to be honest
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #79 on: October 18, 2019, 09:01:36 AM »
That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best.  ::guitar::  ::snowman:: ::cold::

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #80 on: October 18, 2019, 09:08:32 AM »
Nws forecast for winter is out....going with above average temps this winter... not to far we’re close to way above average  category... not much suprise to be honest

This is actually GREAT news for our prospects here (i.e. Winter 2010-11 started with ::blowtorch:: predictions September/October). Whatever the consensus is for the southeast, usually the opposite happens.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #81 on: October 18, 2019, 09:50:25 AM »
... not to far we’re close to way above average  category... not much suprise to be honest

Wut
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #82 on: October 18, 2019, 10:42:43 AM »
That means we will have a eventful winter, things usually go the opposite of what they put out. It's 50-50 at best.  ::guitar::  ::snowman:: ::cold::
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #83 on: October 18, 2019, 04:37:46 PM »
 ::applause::
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....
I think I will wait and see how it shakes before I take a October long range forecast to heart. And even if they are right on overall temps it does not mean we won't have winter weather.  ::popcorn::  ::snowman:: ::cold:: ::cold::
« Last Edit: October 18, 2019, 04:40:14 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #84 on: October 18, 2019, 05:14:43 PM »
nws has gone with above norms temps wise last few years actually....

NOAA busted big time last winter as well because they went Average for the SE and had the highest probabilities of Above Average is like Montana, Idaho, etc.   

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #85 on: October 22, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
ENSO 3.4 pushing moderate El Niño territory with the huge SOI drop over the last 2 months. The pacific is cold east and warm central to west. A weak El Niño in the official region of 3.4 looks likely now. The NE PAC is still warm which is driving the negative EPO. If this continues which it should- the implications for arctic outbreaks should be on the upswing.

« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 01:46:38 PM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #86 on: October 22, 2019, 02:37:17 PM »
ENSO 3.4 pushing moderate El Niño territory with the huge SOI drop over the last 2 months. The pacific is cold east and warm central to west. A weak El Niño in the official region of 3.4 looks likely now. The NE PAC is still warm which is driving the negative EPO. If this continues which it should- the implications for arctic outbreaks should be on the upswing.
which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #87 on: October 23, 2019, 04:37:52 PM »
which will only lead to suppression if artic does unload...

I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #88 on: October 23, 2019, 05:28:22 PM »
Parts of Montana have -15F departures for October.  There is definitely some cold air somewhere.   

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #89 on: October 23, 2019, 08:02:11 PM »
I'll take my chances on suppression versus just no cold air like the last 2 winters.

I was thinking exactly the same thing when I ready his suppression remark. Usually, someone in our state/region cashes in during 'suppression winters'...or rather winters we find ourselves mentioning it more than once. Last winter I feel suppression was a major issue was 2013-14.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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