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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 3258 times)

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Offline joemomma

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #60 on: August 28, 2019, 03:44:22 PM »
My outloook:

Might snow, might not.
Might be cold, might not.

Honestly, we don't know what it's going to be doing much more than 3 days from now, let alone 3 months.  Sure, we can look at trends and connections, but even those have failed us over the past couple of years.  Last year had all the players on the field (that we know of), but they didn't show up to the same game at the same time for most of us.  Sure, there were some that cashed in, but most of us didn't get to see much.

In the meantime, it's fun to track and *hopefully* get to cash in at some point.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #61 on: September 02, 2019, 09:25:05 AM »
Since it is Labor Day and I won't have much time till October to post I decided to realize my pre thoughts for this winter.

After that sour taste that last winter left in my mouth where the exact opposite and I mean exact occurred than what is expected I have decided to stick my neck out again this winter.   

This winter is a bit fun because you have a variety of outlooks that range from Winter Cancel to Polar Coaster, mostly because there really isn't a strong ENSO signal or even a strong like I think the PNA will absolutely be + like you see in some winters.

This outlook assumes the following:  A very weak -ENSO (around -0.5 to -0.7C), + NAO (but not as a much as previous winters because the Atlantic isn't quite as warm as last year),  + AO, +PDO, +PNA, and solidly +QBO with a semi active Northern Stream.  There will also be times where zonal or semizonal flow will keep much of the colder air locked in the poles. 

Analogs used were a mix of 1952-53, 2005-06, and 2017-18, but also the overall pattern of this summer so far was taken into consideration.

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Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #62 on: September 02, 2019, 11:20:01 AM »
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #63 on: September 04, 2019, 02:58:24 PM »
Weather Bell Prelim Outlook
-Plenty of potential for a severe winter.
-East will have to overcome early warmth.
-SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.
-Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal.
-Snowfall should be generous.




Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #64 on: September 04, 2019, 08:33:59 PM »
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #65 on: September 04, 2019, 08:34:54 PM »
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...

Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.

« Last Edit: September 04, 2019, 09:43:12 PM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #66 on: September 04, 2019, 10:27:41 PM »
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.

[img width=600 height=452]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg]
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #67 on: September 05, 2019, 07:16:12 AM »
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...

Iím just having fun poking holes which let face it-  isnít that hard.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2019, 07:21:34 AM by Curt »

 

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