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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 25823 times)

Mister2011, Dyersburg Weather(posting) label=, jeh, Susan, Samiam5211, Scot (+ 1 Hidden) and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline joemomma

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #60 on: August 28, 2019, 03:44:22 PM »
My outloook:

Might snow, might not.
Might be cold, might not.

Honestly, we don't know what it's going to be doing much more than 3 days from now, let alone 3 months.  Sure, we can look at trends and connections, but even those have failed us over the past couple of years.  Last year had all the players on the field (that we know of), but they didn't show up to the same game at the same time for most of us.  Sure, there were some that cashed in, but most of us didn't get to see much.

In the meantime, it's fun to track and *hopefully* get to cash in at some point.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #61 on: September 02, 2019, 09:25:05 AM »
Since it is Labor Day and I won't have much time till October to post I decided to realize my pre thoughts for this winter.

After that sour taste that last winter left in my mouth where the exact opposite and I mean exact occurred than what is expected I have decided to stick my neck out again this winter.   

This winter is a bit fun because you have a variety of outlooks that range from Winter Cancel to Polar Coaster, mostly because there really isn't a strong ENSO signal or even a strong like I think the PNA will absolutely be + like you see in some winters.

This outlook assumes the following:  A very weak -ENSO (around -0.5 to -0.7C), + NAO (but not as a much as previous winters because the Atlantic isn't quite as warm as last year),  + AO, +PDO, +PNA, and solidly +QBO with a semi active Northern Stream.  There will also be times where zonal or semizonal flow will keep much of the colder air locked in the poles. 

Analogs used were a mix of 1952-53, 2005-06, and 2017-18, but also the overall pattern of this summer so far was taken into consideration.

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Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #62 on: September 02, 2019, 11:20:01 AM »
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #63 on: September 04, 2019, 02:58:24 PM »
Weather Bell Prelim Outlook
-Plenty of potential for a severe winter.
-East will have to overcome early warmth.
-SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15.
-Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal.
-Snowfall should be generous.





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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #64 on: September 04, 2019, 08:33:59 PM »
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #65 on: September 04, 2019, 08:34:54 PM »
CSFV2 model ... ::blowtorch:: this December January February thus far...

Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.

« Last Edit: September 04, 2019, 09:43:12 PM by Curt »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #66 on: September 04, 2019, 10:27:41 PM »
Yep. And it was in 2013-14 and 2014-15 both of which had a warm northeast pacific. If the CFS2 is your argument on Sept 1 for warm or cold...you better try again.

[img width=600 height=452]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190905/40a7409616136da7bf8e2e7ef7a9ae07.jpg]
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #67 on: September 05, 2019, 07:16:12 AM »
dont shoot the messenger ... wo... lighten up there Francis ... just stating what model shows...

Iím just having fun poking holes which let face it-  isnít that hard.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2019, 07:21:34 AM by Curt »

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #68 on: September 24, 2019, 07:05:28 AM »
After our ridgefest 2019 fall, I hope the Arctic unloads on the Southeast multiple times. We deserve it.

Offline mempho

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #69 on: October 06, 2019, 06:04:21 AM »
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.
We also had very low solar activity throughout the cycle, so this is the first time we've observed a minimum after a low max cycle. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #70 on: October 06, 2019, 08:45:44 PM »
My analog set for this winter is

1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18 

I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary.  Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle. 

Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest. 
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role.  They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change. 

Summary:

- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system.  Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.     

- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream

- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side.  At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6. 

- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge.  I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.   

- Here is something really interesting.  The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO.  Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream.  I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.   

Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter.  Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast.  With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.   

Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
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Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.   

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« Last Edit: October 06, 2019, 09:10:51 PM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #71 on: October 07, 2019, 07:25:36 AM »
My analog set for this winter is

1952-53
2005-06
2013-14
2014-15
2017-18 

I would consider a mix of 2005-06 and 2013-14 to be the primary.  Not as warm as 2005-06 but not as cold as 2013-14 somewhere in the middle. 

Other factors I am looking at are
- Sea Level Temps and a possible +PNA/+NAO combo
- The Neutral ENSO that may act both like a Nina and a Nino at times
- Very active Northern Stream that we already saw with the Montana Blizzard and the flooding in the Upper Midwest. 
- Climate Change/Global Warming and Low Sunspot Activity also play a role.  They kinda counteract a bit in my outlook with a slight lean towards Climate Change. 

Summary:

- Expect what I think will be a very changeable winter with the potential for our area to be near or on a battleground zone between ridging and a northern stream system.  Meaning that I would probably expect at least 2 overrunning events that could be wintry or could be flooding and at least 1 severe weather threat for KY and TN.     

- I believe the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will probably have their 3rd below normal winter in the role due to the northern stream

- Warmer ocean water means that ridging will be factors on both the Pacific and Atlantic side.  At one point in the winter I would expect to see a very warm period all across the USA and Canada as these features will occasionally merge, especially if we linger around MJO phases 5 and 6. 

- Having a stronger northern stream means more energy to beat the ridge.  I would expect even SE TN and parts of the Deep South to have at least 1 legit threat even if they end up finishing the winter above average.   

- Here is something really interesting.  The SOI is leaning in more of a El-Nino direction but we have a Neutral to border Nina ENSO.  Meaning that we could see the Subtropical Jet come to life with the active Northern Stream.  I think we would have the chance to at one point to have a rare Triple Phase system, meaning a very strong system.   

Overall temperature wise I am not expecting a dud winter, but I am not also expecting a solid cold winter.  Something like a slightly more action-packed and slightly colder 2017-18 would probably be what I would forecast.  With everyone seeing at least 1 threat and potentially a solid winter for NW TN.   

Post Merge: October 06, 2019, 09:10:49 PM
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Outside of the coasts and the Desert SW/parts of the SE it might just be a Polar Coaster after all.

Great work! After last winter, I'll take this look. Snowchased to Mount Vernon last year and may do it again if this verifies. Also, I know many look down on '05-06 due to the January +10 temp anomalies and the busted snowcast of 2/10/06, but December/February was primed for decent action for most of our viewing areas. Seems the decadal trend has been 'one month on, two months off' for winter showing up in the DJF time frame so anytime you get 'two months on, one month off', take it and run.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #72 on: October 07, 2019, 03:39:42 PM »
I would say if you want to look at it through the eyes of a winter weenie.  This outlook does assume a -EPO, +PNA, +AO, and +NAO.  If the latter two were to go negative or either neutral OR the EPO was strongly negative and the PNA or PDO strongly positive that it would overwhelm the +NAO/AO then that cold would shift over towards our area. 

The other not so good solution is the EPO doesn't cooperate then you may have a January 2006 repeat or even worse 2001-02 depending on how long that lasts.   

Those are my thoughts based on all of that, but there are so many pieces and scernaros that really anything from 2013-14 to 2005-06 to 2001-02 is possible.   

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #73 on: October 10, 2019, 11:17:12 AM »
I've started to look more into solar forcings. I find it interesting. As I stated earlier, we are in between solar cycles which leads to a Polar Coaster type setup (active polar jet).

However, looking back through 1900-present, most winters between Solar Cycles feature a decent Nino. This one, will not.

Complete guess, but I'd say the warm northern PAC gives us a better chance of +PNA and combine that with an active polar jet and I think we see some decent bouts of cold. Will it time up with moisture is always the question.

I find this interesting.  So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather.  I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather.  While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 11:23:42 AM by bugalou »

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #74 on: October 10, 2019, 11:27:19 AM »
I find this interesting.  So little is understood about how sun spot activity combined with Earth's orbit perturbations and its effects on the weather.  I can see how ocean current activity, sea temps, and this solar variables could combine in ways to really drive the weather.  While we have a decent understanding on the first two, data on the solar related variables is far less understood.
sun spot n solar r way over rated ... doubt it has much effect to be honest ... imo..
Come on severe wx season...

 

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