December 2019 Discussion

[Flash]

This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.

[Thundersnow]

The winter thread is to the fourth page, and it's still August? It's a blockbuster already. 

[StormNine]

This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.

I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

[Curt]

I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

[Curt]

I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact.

Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.   

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

[snowdog]

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

Interesting to compare Northern and Southern Hemisphere SSTs.

[Nashville_Wx]

Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.

[Charles L.]

Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.

I. Am. Ready.

[StormNine]

With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.

If that stays I would look for a -EPO, +PNA, +PDO, +NAO, and +AO pattern.
The CFS2 now is on board that we will cool enough for a Weak La Nina episode or at least a Cool Neutral that is borderline.  That could create a variety of conditions that range from jet stream rising into Canada and causing winter death in Southern Canada and the USA with the murder weapon being zonal flow or if the EPO and PNA are strong enough it can be enough to send occasional troughs into the Central and perhaps Eastern USA (think our current pattern this summer).

Current Analogs (which bombed and went fail mode last year):
1952-53
1983-84
1995-96
2005-06
2017-18

If things go right in a +PNA/-EPO mixed with +NAO then 2013-14 would be a decent secondary analog just based on that. 

With this pattern, we may be looking at least a decent severe weather/tornado threat or two during the November-Early March timeframe.     

[mamMATTus]

Here

[cgauxknox]

Here

[snowdog]

Here

[Bruce]

Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.

they may need something stronger than that...

[Greyhound]

Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.

More like Prozac, Xanax and Jack Daniels

[schneitzeit]

Or you could pop some psychedelics and just pretend that the 35 degree rain is actually snow