Dyersburg Weather and 14 Guests are viewing this topic.
This is likely a function of flawed memory, but outside of 2015-16, it does seem ENSO played a bigger role in the last decade's winters than this decade. Seems the last three, in particular, have been a tutorial on what derails ENSO on being a driving factor. If you matrix out the teleconnections since 2000, my guess would be you'd have more agreeing patterns (lining up one way or another to good winter/bad winter) early on...and more conflicting patterns (higher bustable winter forecast %) the closer you get to present.
I am starting to figure out that unless the ENSO event is at least Strong (+ or -1.5C or greater) than it doesn't seem to make a huge impact. Even last decade 2006-07 did not act like an El-Nino winter either except for 3 weeks in February. Neutral winters or nearly neutral winters just fully rely on your MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc because there isn't a strong signal for the ENSO.
With the ENSO neutral conditions this winter, watch the PDO and EPO carefully. Right now, the warm water in NE pacific is pretty staggering.
Its almost time for the snow to start falling. Already signs above 10k feet that fall is coming.
Here’s this year’s nickname for Winter 2019-2020: Polar Coaster. Can you feel the hype and disappointment already?
Some of our posters need to stock up on Dramamine.