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Author Topic: December 2019 Discussion  (Read 77863 times)

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Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #285 on: December 04, 2019, 02:09:28 PM »
Next couple weeks looks to be good golfing and fishing weather.  In my case construction weather as I am building a pergola in my back yard.  ::blowtorch::

Better now than January though.

Gotta say, I'm not seeing it. Next week looks pretty darned cold after the cold front rolls through late Monday/early Tuesday, and the following week looks pretty much average for this time of year.

Offline Tom26

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #286 on: December 04, 2019, 04:19:45 PM »
Gotta say, I'm not seeing it. Next week looks pretty darned cold after the cold front rolls through late Monday/early Tuesday, and the following week looks pretty much average for this time of year.

I was told today by a very reputable, close (non tv) meteorologist to keep an eye on Dec 15-25 for a potential snow system to roll through. Signals look good for it, all the way from Tn north

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #287 on: December 04, 2019, 04:24:00 PM »
Active Jet to the south with plenty of cold air available. We could have several players synced up. As you know here it takes all.


Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #288 on: December 04, 2019, 04:48:59 PM »
Next couple weeks looks to be good golfing and fishing weather.  In my case construction weather as I am building a pergola in my back yard.  ::blowtorch::

Better now than January though.

I must be looking at wrong info.  To me it looks chilly to cold to wet at least.  Average to below average temps.  Especially next week.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #289 on: December 04, 2019, 04:56:02 PM »
Things have been shaken up in the later range after the early next week system. 

What looks like zonal flow blah with a subtropical jet to our south like December 2006 is now an arctic push with a possible subtropical jet to our south and a pattern more similar to December 2009 although we don't have the help from the -NAO that 2009 featured.   

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #290 on: December 04, 2019, 06:58:53 PM »
Just going from the CPC and a tweet MEG posted (along with some other mets I follow on twitter, but I will just link this one).

https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/1201573059821473793?s=20

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #291 on: December 04, 2019, 07:00:57 PM »
Already seeing forums and FB groups start with the chatter of late next week's *potential* system. What does the climatology say for this time of year for Tennessee? It's just about an overwhelming no. I'm keeping expectations very low. I've been through this letdown one too many times.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #292 on: December 04, 2019, 07:07:41 PM »
Already seeing forums and FB groups start with the chatter of late next week's *potential* system. What does the climatology say for this time of year for Tennessee? It's just about an overwhelming no. I'm keeping expectations very low. I've been through this letdown one too many times.

Mid-December isn't extremely climo favorable but there have been some events.  December 2009 was decent from Nashville and especially from the Cumberland Plateau and eastward.  December 2010 had some hits including Christmas Eve Night and NW TN had a hit in Early Dec 2013.   

December 2000 and 2002 had a few West TN hits and last winter had an ice event for the KY/TN border and snow for far NE TN.   

Climo is kinda favorable for West TN and far NE TN, but not as much elsewhere.   

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #293 on: December 04, 2019, 07:19:06 PM »
Just going from the CPC and a tweet MEG posted (along with some other mets I follow on twitter, but I will just link this one).

https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/1201573059821473793?s=20


I believe that's geared primarily towards the warm-up that's coming our way Sunday-Monday ahead of the next system.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #294 on: December 04, 2019, 09:04:05 PM »
Today I finally took the snow-rated all-terrain tires off of my Subaru that I put on 3 years ago while living in Colorado. This can only mean one thing...it's going to snow of course.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #295 on: December 05, 2019, 05:44:18 AM »
Today I finally took the snow-rated all-terrain tires off of my Subaru that I put on 3 years ago while living in Colorado. This can only mean one thing...it's going to snow of course.
and last nites 0z euro run was ever so close to that... albeit itís day 10....
Come on severe wx season...

Offline marjl21

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #296 on: December 05, 2019, 06:55:06 AM »
Donít look at the at the 6z GFS unless you like to look at weenie maps  ::shaking_finger::

1050+ high over MN/WI + slow moving phasing southern stream vort = 1-2í+ (yes, feet) from OK through AR and NW TN.

Offline Tom26

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #297 on: December 05, 2019, 07:25:00 AM »
Donít look at the at the 6z GFS unless you like to look at weenie maps  ::shaking_finger::

1050+ high over MN/WI + slow moving phasing southern stream vort = 1-2í+ (yes, feet) from OK through AR and NW TN.

Here she comes

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #298 on: December 05, 2019, 08:11:32 AM »
Already seeing forums and FB groups start with the chatter of late next week's *potential* system. What does the climatology say for this time of year for Tennessee? It's just about an overwhelming no. I'm keeping expectations very low. I've been through this letdown one too many times.

100% agreed...10 days away is crazy to even think about a model being anything close to accurate...and even at that I saw mostly ice/sleet for mid tn on that one with snow in north ark and Kentucky.( typical)

But it at least possibly signifies good trends down the road :)

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #299 on: December 05, 2019, 08:20:41 AM »
I'm encouraged by the big-picture trends in the extended and think it's reasonable to see the pattern as favorable for next week's MO/OH river valley snow potential. For here, not nearly as sold considering you gotta blend the Euro into any GFS mention. As I employ any local weather enthusiast, set the expectation to cold rain until you see the white of a storm's eye. 'Til then, just be happy you have a storm to track that has potential to bring fun and games to areas only 2-3 hours away (for those in west/middle TN anyway).
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 08:23:46 AM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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