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Author Topic: December 2019 Discussion  (Read 77869 times)

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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #270 on: December 03, 2019, 07:26:20 PM »
GFS has us in a really active pattern in the mid and long range.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #271 on: December 03, 2019, 10:51:05 PM »
GFS has us in a really active pattern in the mid and long range.

Starting to see some major league arctic air entering the plains on the long range ensembles mid month like near 45 degree BN departures and actual temps nearing 30 to 35 below zero. Some of that will almost certainly bleed down southward. Being in a non La Niña, there perhaps won’t be too large of an impediment.

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #272 on: December 03, 2019, 11:16:22 PM »
Starting to see some major league arctic air entering the plains on the long range ensembles mid month like near 45 degree BN departures and actual temps nearing 30 to 35 below zero. Some of that will almost certainly bleed down southward. Being in a non La Niña, there perhaps won’t be too large of an impediment.

Curt, the upcoming pattern is more Pacific driven if we get cold. Elniños usually are more Atlantic driven, meaning the nao has a tendency to be negative and ao if we are to get cold from there. I find it interesting because the ao and nao are both positive until further notice.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #273 on: December 03, 2019, 11:23:32 PM »
Curt, the upcoming pattern is more Pacific driven if we get cold. Elniños usually are more Atlantic driven, meaning the nao has a tendency to be negative and ao if we are to get cold from there. I find it interesting because the ao and nao are both positive until further notice.

Modified Pacific through about day 10 yes. Past that is pure arctic if this is what pans out per Euro Control via temp anomalies. That’s not Pacific air not even close. There are other hints of the same past day 10 as well. Effects of a strat warm and null phase of the MJO? Could be. It’s 10 days off but hints are there esp in the northern plains.


Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #274 on: December 04, 2019, 09:15:10 AM »
Thanks for the update Curt, I was noticing how the so called warm December isn't really looking that warm. I am sure there will be warm spells and things could swing that way. But it seems to me, that the ridge that was being advertised in the east keeps getting pushed back. The middle of the month looks interesting at the moment. We may end up slightly above average for the month, but I don't think this December is going to be the torch some thought it might 10 days ago. But with weather you never know, it is interesting to see the warmth kind of being pushed back and not as extreme as it looked just a while back. In fact I could see the month coming in about normal if things keep trending the way there are.  ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 09:19:34 AM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline Tom26

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #275 on: December 04, 2019, 09:58:52 AM »
Here's hoping that this winter is full of snow for everybody. It looks promising right now according to forecasts that I have seen.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #276 on: December 04, 2019, 10:44:06 AM »
Here's hoping that this winter is full of snow for everybody. It looks promising right now according to forecasts that I have seen.

after last seasons total bust for me ( not even a tenth of an inch ) I will get excited when all models continue to show 5-7 inches of snow less than 24 hours away LOL!!!!

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #277 on: December 04, 2019, 10:45:31 AM »
I will get excited when all models continue to show 5-7 inches of snow less than 24 hours away LOL!!!!

And, be careful even then. That scenario has bitten us a few times in the past.
"To say you have no choice... is a failure of imagination."
                                                           - Jean Luc Picard

Offline Tom26

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #278 on: December 04, 2019, 11:02:19 AM »
And, be careful even then. That scenario has bitten us a few times in the past.

Definitely this. I remember the storm back in Jan of 2010. Supposed to get all snow, 8 inches, and ended up being a slushy mess of 3.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #279 on: December 04, 2019, 12:08:19 PM »
Definitely this. I remember the storm back in Jan of 2010. Supposed to get all snow, 8 inches, and ended up being a slushy mess of 3.

well actually we had around 9 inches of snow and just a bit of mixing at the end in that storm where I live....the 412 corridor was right along the transition zone so precip was HEAVY that day. interesting that I can never find any graphics of local snow accumulation for that Jan 2010 snow

Offline Tom26

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #280 on: December 04, 2019, 12:15:46 PM »
well actually we had around 9 inches of snow and just a bit of mixing at the end in that storm where I live....the 412 corridor was right along the transition zone so precip was HEAVY that day. interesting that I can never find any graphics of local snow accumulation for that Jan 2010 snow

Yeah, some did well. Jefferson County, TN seemed to be the dividing line in East Tn between a lot of snow and half snow/half sleet. Just goes to show that you also can never predict how the entire state will do, even day of an event.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #281 on: December 04, 2019, 12:23:27 PM »
Yeah, some did well. Jefferson County, TN seemed to be the dividing line in East Tn between a lot of snow and half snow/half sleet. Just goes to show that you also can never predict how the entire state will do, even day of an event.

part of the problem all local tv stations have is they stick with their modeling even during the event instead of watching the radar trends while it is happening

Offline Tom26

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #282 on: December 04, 2019, 12:26:51 PM »
part of the problem all local tv stations have is they stick with their modeling even during the event instead of watching the radar trends while it is happening

For sure. And it often leads these same guys to be wrong. That's why I prefer to not listen much to certain TV mets, and instead engage in conversations with people like you guys and with mets that aren't on TV.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #283 on: December 04, 2019, 01:04:45 PM »
Next couple weeks looks to be good golfing and fishing weather.  In my case construction weather as I am building a pergola in my back yard.  ::blowtorch::

Better now than January though.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #284 on: December 04, 2019, 01:58:44 PM »
For sure. And it often leads these same guys to be wrong. That's why I prefer to not listen much to certain TV mets, and instead engage in conversations with people like you guys and with mets that aren't on TV.

James Spann in B-Ham is King of mets in my opinion, not a day goes by that I don't watch the weather xtreme video he puts out lol

 

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