December 2019 Discussion

[Mr. Golf]

QBO quickly going easterly(negative). That’s a huge change from this time last year at the same time.

Curt, where do you go to find out how the qbo is doing? Where did you find that out?

[StormNine]

Yeah, that was a fatal nail most winter forecasts missed due to the timing of event vs. issuance. Let's hope this pattern continues.

That plus the -PNA drop in February was what doomed a lot of forecasts. There was still plently of cold air but the QBO and that -PNA placed that cold air in Western Canada into the Pacific NW and Upper Midwest.  Great Falls, MT recorded a -27F departure in Feb.  We weren't all that far away from a Fab Feb last winter. 

[Mr. Golf]

I think the mjo will be going into unfavorable phases for cold, so it looks like December will be warmer than normal for at least 2/3 of the month. Alan huffman mentioned that earlier today.

[StormNine]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-3-best-oil-refining-stocks-to-own-goldman-sachs-says-51574280240

As predicted by several we will probably have a mild December Nationwide. 

It is the classic relaxation although it doesn't look quite as warm as 2015 or even 2018.  Probably 2014 is the better analog with alternating mild conditions with some modified cold shots for good measure.   

[Michael]

Interesting take on December from Ryan Maue’s group https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JHCuqU2dyk


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[BRUCE]

Interesting take on December from Ryan Maue’s group https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JHCuqU2dyk


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the mjo seems to be pretty stuck... and is in no hurry to get to the phase it needs to be to get some winter fun... ryan maue is oneof the bigger if not the biggest hype forecasters with winter weather... listen to him every winter...think  we would be heading towards the second ice age... lol

[Michael]

the mjo seems to be pretty stuck... and is in no hurry to get to the phase it needs to be to get some winter fun... ryan maue is on of the bigger if not the biggest hype forecasters with winter weather... listen to him every winter...think  we would be heading towards the second ice age... lol

I thought that it was Bastardi who was the hype master.


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[Curt]

I thought that it was Bastardi who was the hype master.


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You are correct. Ryan is NO hype. In fact, he’s no charisma. He’s a straight shooter.

[StormNine]

MJO and the position of that ridge off the coast of Alaska will tell the tale of how winter after December 20th goes more so than the NAO/AO or even SSW events. 

We need ridging off the West Coast of Canada or the USA and not over the islands or the far western part of Alaska.  Without a strong ENSO signal, the MJO becomes more vital than even usual.   

 

[Mr. Golf]

MJO and the position of that ridge off the coast of Alaska will tell the tale of how winter after December 20th goes more so than the NAO/AO or even SSW events. 

We need ridging off the West Coast of Canada or the USA and not over the islands or the far western part of Alaska.  Without a strong ENSO signal, the MJO becomes more vital than even usual.

Steven, happy Thanksgiving. What are your thoughts moving forward after dec 20th?

[BRUCE]

Steven, happy Thanksgiving. What are your thoughts moving forward after dec 20th?

I would say pretty much the same I would imagine...

[Curt]

Looking a little further out, after a slightly above normal December, NOAA’s CAS model really goes cold as we head into the heart of winter. That probably jives with the MJO making its rounds plus a modoki Pacific and easterly headed QBO. This should be an interesting evolution. It reminds me much more if 2014/15.

[snowdog]

Bastardi comparing modeled strat warming in late December to the one that gave us a frigid January in 77.

[BRUCE]

Bastardi comparing modeled strat warming in late December to the one that gave us a frigid January in 77.

there will never be another 77 January type winter in our life time ... unfortunately

[schneitzeit]

Bastardi comparing modeled strat warming in late December to the one that gave us a frigid January in 77.

I would be an insult to armchair meteorologists if I labeled myself as such, but I would like to state my opinion that I hardly take Bastardi seriously.