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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 21384 times)

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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #210 on: November 14, 2019, 05:37:21 AM »
Latest Epps long range will make most folks very happy around here... ::cold::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Eric

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #211 on: November 14, 2019, 07:58:27 AM »
Latest Epps long range will make most folks very happy around here... ::cold::

Only Epps I'm aware of....
#tSpotter Coordinator for Rutherford and Warren Cos. (@WarrenSevereWx and @RuthSevereWx)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #212 on: November 21, 2019, 05:09:49 PM »
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That Arctic Blocking looks like Gold.  If the increased heights were closer to the West Coast of Canada and the USA we would be absolutely golden headed into winter. 

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #213 on: November 21, 2019, 06:20:30 PM »
Donít look now....but a major SSW (strat warm) looks possible by early December. Hehe.

Maybe we will actually fare better this go around than one day of arctic air vs last yearís fiasco.

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #214 on: November 21, 2019, 09:14:02 PM »
Donít look now....but a major SSW (strat warm) looks possible by early December. Hehe.

Maybe we will actually fare better this go around than one day of arctic air vs last yearís fiasco.
Curt, i know JB has been excited about the chances of one like he usually is about anything like that lol. The -pna, imo, won't help us for a while due to the fact it puts too much troughing along the west coast. Not sure if its attributable to the unfavorable mjo phases. I believe we should have a few winter storm chances here, but i am always happy with just one, since we are in the south.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #215 on: November 22, 2019, 09:02:50 AM »
Still long way out but GFS been showing a winter weather event around December 7-8.  Still fantasy land right now but nice to see.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #216 on: November 22, 2019, 09:11:17 AM »
Curt, i know JB has been excited about the chances of one like he usually is about anything like that lol. The -pna, imo, won't help us for a while due to the fact it puts too much troughing along the west coast. Not sure if its attributable to the unfavorable mjo phases. I believe we should have a few winter storm chances here, but i am always happy with just one, since we are in the south.

If a SSW helps, the lag time is usually a few weeks behind. We wouldnít see effects- if any- until mid December. Thatís why a SSW in February is pointless for our area. The SSW of December 1984- early 1985 is by far the best example of cashing in. They donít always work out though depending on size and position of displacement.

Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #217 on: November 22, 2019, 03:10:07 PM »
If a SSW helps, the lag time is usually a few weeks behind. We wouldnít see effects- if any- until mid December. Thatís why a SSW in February is pointless for our area. The SSW of December 1984- early 1985 is by far the best example of cashing in. They donít always work out though depending on size and position of displacement.
I agree curt. SSW events are tricky. We had a major event last winter but other things threw it off from what i understand. 84 85 was one of the best examples. I was only 5 so i dont remember it very good. Dr. Furtado from UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA said the Pacific has to cooperate for the SSW to be effective for us. He posts alot on twitter.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #218 on: November 23, 2019, 10:15:26 AM »
The end of November/beginning of December pattern looks to really favor the out West Ski Resorts that did very well last winter.   

A -PNA, forming -EPO ridge near the southern Alaskan coast, and some Northern Hemisphere blocking should bring the cold.  An active subtropical jet due to a borderline El-Nino should provide the moisture.

Congrats Sierra Nevada and the ski resorts of Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.   

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #219 on: November 23, 2019, 10:53:23 AM »
The end of November/beginning of December pattern looks to really favor the out West Ski Resorts that did very well last winter.   

A -PNA, forming -EPO ridge near the southern Alaskan coast, and some Northern Hemisphere blocking should bring the cold.  An active subtropical jet due to a borderline El-Nino should provide the moisture.

Congrats Sierra Nevada and the ski resorts of Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.

Yup, heading to Tahoe and Mammoth for PSIA clinics, Glen Plake being one which I am super stoked about. Snowfall has been pretty rare this season in the Sierras so this up coming cycle should hopefully help. But I have my own concerns there going into the extended. Rockies are in the right spot, esp CO. December may start off a bit slow and ramp up with some chances of notable snowfall. For now let it rip along the West coast!


Offline Thundersnow

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Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #220 on: November 23, 2019, 11:30:16 AM »
As we close in on winter model watching season, just a reminder to guard your excitement in the coming weeks.

« Last Edit: November 23, 2019, 11:37:44 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #221 on: November 23, 2019, 04:57:44 PM »
Curse you for bringing that meme in here
"I like the cold weather. It means you get work done." - Noam Chomsky

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #222 on: November 23, 2019, 06:15:38 PM »
Curse you for bringing that meme in here

I agree. One week ban for Thundersnow.

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #223 on: November 24, 2019, 05:52:26 PM »
QBO quickly going easterly(negative). Thatís a huge change from this time last year at the same time.

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #224 on: November 24, 2019, 06:11:44 PM »
QBO quickly going easterly(negative). Thatís a huge change from this time last year at the same time.

Yeah, that was a fatal nail most winter forecasts missed due to the timing of event vs. issuance. Let's hope this pattern continues.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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