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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 1747 times)

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Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2019, 07:04:07 AM »
Last winter wasn't a total bust for the entire U.S.  The Northwest, northern Plains, and upper Midwest had one truly epic winter.  But the trough never made any progress eastward, despite models continually showing it week after week.  However, what really made last winter bite was our epic state-wide snowstorm that models showed for days slowly, painfully, and nearly completely evaporating over the course of a few day's worth of model runs.  It was like having the rug pulled out from under us in super slow motion.   Far worse and more painful than have it disappear in one day.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2019, 09:35:51 AM »
Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless.  A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.

Due to the low solar activity (we are between cycles from 24 to 25), we should see an active polar jet. The last winter that was between cycles was 2009/2010, and it was an unusually cold/stormy winter.

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2019, 05:09:55 PM »
After the last two winters, its going to be hard to be worse so I can't help but feel positive about this winter.  Good analysis Curt, I am not so good at longer range stuff like this so I appreciate your effort.

Post Merge: August 08, 2019, 05:13:30 PM
Well I am getting where I donít like cold anymore.  I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain.  So a mild in the 50ís winter let it be or letís just keep fall like wx thru winter.

I will permaban you for this type of crazy talk.  Watch your mouth.  ::shaking_finger::  ::rofl::
(I am kidding for those of you sarcasm deficient)
« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 05:13:30 PM by bugalou, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2019, 07:41:30 AM »
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.


Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2019, 12:37:51 PM »
Let me flip a coin, then another and another. We have been talking about this for 10 years. When it comes down to it, Winter Wx is very local and is usually not widespread when it comes to moderate accumulations. My point being? We can have all the signs for a good Winter then have a good winter but for who? One in Nashville may say it was horrible while everyone around us had a epic winter.... Its fun to talk about, but events are too localized to make any assumptions any year.

You nailed it. Last year was the last for getting my hopes up about any winter weather in TN. Itís a complete luck of the draw. When itís physically falling through the atmosphere, Iíll believe it. Not buying into anymore more models or winterwx forecasts.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2019, 05:19:49 PM »
I'm a Vol fan, it's in my nature to get overly optimistic and then be let down...over and over and over and over.

So, with that said, this is our year. 14+" of pure white powdery crystalized goodness.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2019, 07:26:21 PM »
Indifferent best describes my emotional state for this winter. 

After '09-10, I thought we might be turning a corner.  And, indeed, we had many "better" winters from 2009 until 2015, with a few duds in the mix.  But, overall, we definitely had some colder weather, and experienced our first sub-zero temperatures since 1994 for many of us.  But then our Super-Nino developed in late 2015, and it caused our winters to revert to pre-2009 style with few Arctic intrusions this far south.

So, after the last 3 winters that produced little, and especially after the last one--the winter with so much promise that gave us nothing, I'm indifferent.  Numb.  I don't feel anything except the dread of losing hours of daylight, and enduring multiple 35 degree rainy days. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2019, 08:04:44 PM »
It's August and we're already complaining  ::rofl::

Offline Drifter49

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2019, 08:33:43 PM »
It's August and we're already complaining  ::rofl::

Thatís how we roll


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2019, 07:05:13 AM »
It's called 'venting.'  It's a very healthy exercise.  I feel better already.   8)
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #25 on: August 11, 2019, 09:49:50 AM »
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.         

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #26 on: August 11, 2019, 12:41:25 PM »
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.       
:D 8)....keep on preaching brother... ::fingerscrossed::
Come on severe wx season...

Offline bugalou

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #27 on: August 11, 2019, 02:03:33 PM »
https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/OyUGh2yutp0

Larry Cosgrove has the Euro Monthlies at the bottom of the post from October to February. 

It appears that they are on team blowtorch Canada and the USA although some below-average readings do appear in the Rocky Mountain region and Desert SW.  That pattern verbitam with lower heights in the SW, limited arctic intrusions, and strong ridging in the East would make Bruce a happy man if that were to be accurate or close to it. 

Reminder
Take what you see with a grain of salt because the Euro Weeklies and Monthlies did absolutely terrible last winter.  A lot of outlooks last winter including mine to some degree were based off of them.       


Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state.  Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually.  Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes.  I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.

This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though.  ::doh::
« Last Edit: August 11, 2019, 02:06:23 PM by bugalou »

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #28 on: August 11, 2019, 03:25:57 PM »

Honestly doesn't sound half bad for those of us in the west of the state.  Memphis has picked up some pretty great winter events from bowling ball lows cutting off around the 4 corners and drifting east eventually.  Who needs a cold air source when you can just produce your own dynamically via a combination of low sun angle, short daylight, and adiabatic processes.  I honestly can't even remember a 5+ inch snow event here in the past 20 years that didn't happen with temps at 31/32 degrees during the duration of the event.

This doesn't really bode well for though of you east of Jackson though.  ::doh::

2005-06 is what came to mind looking at the monthlies.  It had that similar look and that winter allowed for Memphis to score a moderate snow event while Middle TN into Central KY got the I-65 warm nose.   

Take the monthlies with a grain of the world's finest salt. I reminder this time last year we were salivating over them because they showed the goods while torching the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Offline JayCee

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #29 on: August 11, 2019, 06:42:28 PM »
After last year, I have little faith in any long range forecasts--even Euro's.  It showed so much good stuff last winter that never materialized--and that was just 2-3 weeks out.  So how can I believe it 2-3 months (or more) out? 

In my youth, I remember August was the month I would get "pumped" about the coming winter.  I would re-read my NWS pamphlets and flyers about winter storms that I had collected over the years.  I would gaze at the U.S. map hanging on my bedroom wall behind it's plexiglass protection, and draw hypothetical winter storms while fantasizing about the "big one" hitting in the coming months.   

Oh, to be young again, and not living in a greenhouse world.  It's just hard to get excited about winter anymore.
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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