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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 25892 times)

Nash_LSU, DocB, Dyersburg Weather, lyngo, Brad and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #105 on: October 25, 2019, 07:57:00 AM »
76-77 was colder but 77-78 and 78-79 were snowier than 76-77 at least in Nashville and the KY stations. 76-77 was the coldest winter on record which is not likely to repeat in our current climate state.  I think it is possible for us to get a 2009-10, 2013-14, and 2014-15 type winter and maybe even a 1984-85 type in our current state if the cards fall right.   
all I remember bout 77 was ... we missed nearly month school that January ... it snowed  every Wednesday which was strange ... and each snow was 5 inches or greater ... winter 78 was colder  with bit less ⛄️... but both years had lot  ::snowman::
« Last Edit: October 25, 2019, 09:58:30 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #106 on: October 25, 2019, 11:02:08 AM »
Since I'm a 90s baby, can I just experience one winter like 77-78 76-77?. I'm fine with it being once in a lifetime in Nashville.

Same here. It's like the Grizzlies or Titans winning a championship. Locals can ride the high out for decades whereas the significance fades for repeated contenders up north (looking at you, New England). Worst case, I'd like to ride a winter out somewhere that gets 3-4' of snow and see what's it like.
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #107 on: October 25, 2019, 02:20:38 PM »
Same here. It's like the Grizzlies or Titans winning a championship. Locals can ride the high out for decades whereas the significance fades for repeated contenders up north (looking at you, New England). Worst case, I'd like to ride a winter out somewhere that gets 3-4' of snow and see what's it like.

That was Nashville in the winter of 1959-1960:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/weather/when-were-nashvilles-5-snowiest-winters-biggest-snow-storms/amp/

It seems hard to get 3 of snow in a winter these days, to say nothing of 38.5-

Crazy- someone should analyze the indices from that winter to see what was up.

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #108 on: October 25, 2019, 04:59:41 PM »
That was Nashville in the winter of 1959-1960:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wkrn.com/weather/when-were-nashvilles-5-snowiest-winters-biggest-snow-storms/amp/



It seems hard to get 3 of snow in a winter these days, to say nothing of 38.5-

Crazy- someone should analyze the indices from that winter to see what was up.


I have always thought 85 would be insane to live through for this region....many record lows in the -10's with -40 and 150 wind chills and several snow rounds

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #109 on: October 25, 2019, 05:16:47 PM »
2014-15 was pretty crazy in Kentucky and Northwest Tennessee with several locations in both areas receiving over 20 inches of snow that winter in both areas.   

1959-60 was not that wild until February as it was a backloaded winter like 2014-15 was. 1959-60 had a pretty strong -NAO and even stronger -AO which helped out. 

It hould be noted that we have an average -NAO this month.  There is supposedly some correlation between October NAO and winter NAO.  We are overdue for an -NAO and if we can get it that would be great. 

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #110 on: October 25, 2019, 07:06:56 PM »

I have always thought 85 would be insane to live through for this region....many record lows in the -10's with -40 and 150 wind chills and several snow rounds
we got well over30 inches snow that winter ... insane... especially after a blowtorch end to 1984
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #111 on: October 25, 2019, 07:17:27 PM »
we got well over30 inches snow that winter ... insane... especially after a blowtorch end to 1984

I am just happy with the average winters we used to have from 1990 to the early 2000's.....by average I mean two or three nice snow events of 3-4 inches a piece every winter. NOW we are lucky to get 3 inches in a season for the past 5-6 years and it is horrible

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #112 on: October 26, 2019, 07:59:41 AM »
I am just happy with the average winters we used to have from 1990 to the early 2000's.....by average I mean two or three nice snow events of 3-4 inches a piece every winter. NOW we are lucky to get 3 inches in a season for the past 5-6 years and it is horrible
you can forget about ever seeing the winters we had in the 60s 70s early 80s... and its mans fault to mainly blame... thats why get so jade about winter these days... were just fighting a loosing battle... notice now whenever we do get a decent snow.. it starts to melt just bout soon it stops snowing ... so I turned more a severe lover  which i always loved  anyways... now we dont even get that anymore... weather to me has become so boring its a snooze fest for me... go vols and patriots...!
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 08:01:52 AM by BRUCE »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Crockett

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #113 on: October 26, 2019, 09:53:32 AM »
you can forget about ever seeing the winters we had in the 60s 70s early 80s... and its mans fault to mainly blame...

Good grief. For someone who can't accurately predict a severe weather outbreak 5-7 days out, that's a bold prediction!

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #114 on: October 26, 2019, 10:34:13 AM »
Good grief. For someone who can't accurately predict a severe weather outbreak 5-7 days out, that's a bold prediction!
bold but true... go ahead be in denial... climate is changing to much
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #115 on: October 26, 2019, 10:55:25 AM »
I will backtrack my previous statement a bit.  We can still get good winters it just requires a bit of a balancing act.

While I think that our winters are getting warmer overall and that a repeat of the late 70s or even a winter like 1963-64 is very unlikely, we can still have good winters. 

The trick is to get either a strongly -NAO/-AO (1959-60, 2009-10, 2010-11) and/or strongly -EPO/+PNA/+PDO (2013-14 and 2014-15) combo and to not have a Super El-Nino or La-Nina (above +1.7C).   If we can have all of that then we will be good.   

Having just a minor to moderately -NAO without the favorable EPO/PNA/PDO like 2005-06 and 2012-13 doesn't quite work it needs to be pretty negative if we don't get help from the 3 Pacific helpers.   

My prediction of a +NAO, -EPO, and Neutral to Slightly + PNA/PDO and an active polar northern stream probably means that the brunt of the cold air spills in between both the West Coast and the Southeastern Ridges.  Good for I-44 and perhaps even KY and West Tennessee, but not so great for the East Coast, East TN, or much of our Deep South friends.  The PNA/PDO need to go raging + and/or the NAO needs to go Negative for them to have consistent cold and winter threats.   
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 11:00:51 AM by StormNine »

Offline gcbama

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #116 on: October 26, 2019, 10:57:56 AM »
bold but true... go ahead be in denial... climate is changing to much

it's cyclic it will turn around for us again one day bruce! :), we are BEYOND due a good snow event statewide .. to me my favorite storm was the 2010 storm where all of TN and northern ms and bama got a good storm....of course the 412 corridor is where it was the best :) moderate snow started at 10am and did not end until after 8pm with a bit of sleet at the end....had 9-10 inches here it was fun to watch!!!

Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #117 on: October 26, 2019, 01:05:39 PM »
it's cyclic it will turn around for us again one day bruce! :), we are BEYOND due a good snow event statewide .. to me my favorite storm was the 2010 storm where all of TN and northern ms and bama got a good storm....of course the 412 corridor is where it was the best :) moderate snow started at 10am and did not end until after 8pm with a bit of sleet at the end....had 9-10 inches here it was fun to watch!!!
talking bout a overall classic winter we used to get...

Post Merge: October 26, 2019, 01:07:43 PM
I will backtrack my previous statement a bit.  We can still get good winters it just requires a bit of a balancing act.

While I think that our winters are getting warmer overall and that a repeat of the late 70s or even a winter like 1963-64 is very unlikely, we can still have good winters. 

The trick is to get either a strongly -NAO/-AO (1959-60, 2009-10, 2010-11) and/or strongly -EPO/+PNA/+PDO (2013-14 and 2014-15) combo and to not have a Super El-Nino or La-Nina (above +1.7C).   If we can have all of that then we will be good.   

Having just a minor to moderately -NAO without the favorable EPO/PNA/PDO like 2005-06 and 2012-13 doesn't quite work it needs to be pretty negative if we don't get help from the 3 Pacific helpers.   

My prediction of a +NAO, -EPO, and Neutral to Slightly + PNA/PDO and an active polar northern stream probably means that the brunt of the cold air spills in between both the West Coast and the Southeastern Ridges.  Good for I-44 and perhaps even KY and West Tennessee, but not so great for the East Coast, East TN, or much of our Deep South friends.  The PNA/PDO need to go raging + and/or the NAO needs to go Negative for them to have consistent cold and winter threats.
that sound s like a good ice setup for us midsouth be honest
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 01:07:43 PM by BRUCE, Reason: Merged DoublePost »
Come on severe wx season...

Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #118 on: October 26, 2019, 03:38:17 PM »
I am just happy with the average winters we used to have from 1990 to the early 2000's.....by average I mean two or three nice snow events of 3-4 inches a piece every winter. NOW we are lucky to get 3 inches in a season for the past 5-6 years and it is horrible

It may be different in your area but I thought that the late 90s and early 00's were pretty crappy.  96-97 was a front-loaded winter that ended by January 20th, 97-98 was a super-el nino that had one good storm, 98-99 was a less snowy version of 07-08, 99-00 was similar to 98-99, 00-01 was the best out of the series but was another front-loaded winter, and 01-02 was one surprise storm away from being 2011-12.

From 96-97 to 01-02 the only winters that get a grade higher than a D are 96-97 and 00-01 and those are probably C winters. 

For say the Hopkinsville, Clarksville, Dover area I would rank the winters since 96-97 this way:

96-97: C
97-98: D+
98-99: D-
99-00: F
00-01: C+
01-02: F
02-03: A
03-04: C-
04-05: C-
05-06: C-
06-07: C-
07-08: B-
08-09: C
09-10: A-
10-11: A
11-12: F
12-13: D+
13-14: B
14-15: A
15-16: B-
16-17: F
17-18: B-
18-19: D-

Offline Flash

Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #119 on: October 26, 2019, 06:13:10 PM »
It may be different in your area but I thought that the late 90s and early 00's were pretty crappy.  96-97 was a front-loaded winter that ended by January 20th, 97-98 was a super-el nino that had one good storm, 98-99 was a less snowy version of 07-08, 99-00 was similar to 98-99, 00-01 was the best out of the series but was another front-loaded winter, and 01-02 was one surprise storm away from being 2011-12.

From 96-97 to 01-02 the only winters that get a grade higher than a D are 96-97 and 00-01 and those are probably C winters. 

For say the Hopkinsville, Clarksville, Dover area I would rank the winters since 96-97 this way:

96-97: C
97-98: D+
98-99: D-
99-00: F
00-01: C+
01-02: F
02-03: A
03-04: C-
04-05: C-
05-06: C-
06-07: C-
07-08: B-
08-09: C
09-10: A-
10-11: A
11-12: F
12-13: D+
13-14: B
14-15: A
15-16: B-
16-17: F
17-18: B-
18-19: D-

Shouldn't 01-02 be, at least, a D- then? Weird to think BNA had three more inches of snow that winter compared to 11-12. Anywho, here's how I'd grade the winters out (mostly from a Williamson county 825' perspective):

92-93: B+ (First local winter as a 6-year-old; we missed out on the superstorm, but having moved from CA, any snow was something to behold)
93-94: A (This is debatable depending on how you view the '94 ice storm; for me, January '94 was pretty special...one of the few times I've seen local creeks flash-freeze)
94-95: D
95-96: A+ (and this factors in missing the 3/21/96 8" snow being away on spring break; this winter will be remembered for snow depths up to my waist and watching the temp sensor drop to -2 on a drive to church)
96-97: B (I consider any 3-6" event an automatic B in my book)
97-98: C- (December was fun at least; driving home from DC after Christmas was still one of the scariest driving experiences of my dad's life)
98-99: D
99-00: D- (this was the first winter I realized some long term forecasts had cold biases; sad times for me...but hey Vince Carter and winning the 8th-grade science award helped)
00-01: B- (front-loaded, but man...December 2000 was something else)
01-02: D+
02-03: A+
03-04: C- (2/15/04 killed me; had I lived in Spring Hill/Thompson Station...this grade goes to a B)
04-05: F (big whiff on 12/22/04 was partially tempered by being out of state; still an annual amount of trace is an automatic 'F' in my book; this winter trumps 11-12 as the worst winter the last quarter-century IMO)
05-06: C- (RIP 2/10/06)
06-07: C-
07-08: B (3/7-8/08 to the rescue)
08-09: D+ (constant whiff after whiff; the 3/1/09 storm path is still an eye soar a decade later)
09-10: A (showchasing up to Murray State a few times this winter takes this from A- to A for me)
10-11: A
11-12: F
12-13: D+ (at least I was engaged prepping for a wedding most of this time)
13-14: D (Many would disagree...but this was the epic snowdome/suppression winter; an easy A for SE TN; however, for middle TN, I can't recall a winter that wasted so much arctic air)
14-15: B+ (too much ice, too little snow...February 2015 the last real February Nashville has seen)
15-16: A (major score on 1/22-23/16; 9th warmest winter somehow yielded the 28th snowiest winter at BNA  ::shrug::)
16-17: F
17-18: C
18-19: D- (would have given a D+, but the blown hype adds insult to injury)

After all that, here's how I would rank my 'top 3'...

Top 3 Winters

95-96
02-03
10-11

Worst 3 Winters

04-05
11-12
18-19
« Last Edit: October 26, 2019, 06:30:25 PM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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