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Author Topic: Winter 2019-2020  (Read 5305 times)

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Offline Curt

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Winter 2019-2020
« on: August 02, 2019, 04:37:03 PM »
Here ya go for winter months:

ENSO- on the way to neutral
PDO- positive with possible large warm pool in NE pacific
QBO- currently very positive but has peaked and should see deceasing through fall and winter
NAO- itís been negative all summer but who knows
Sun- we are nearing the solar minimum and in the quietist period nearing record books
Bruce- SER and lots of severe


Canadian Seasonal Temps


CFS2


Last  yearís CFS2 at this time


Actuality. As much as it nailed it in the southeast, it sucked in the plains.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2019, 05:03:01 PM »
In on the first page.  ::snowman::

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2019, 08:19:06 PM »
Here's my forecast: Another bust.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2019, 09:20:40 PM »
I am ready for the active spring we are going to have already! 🤪

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2019, 07:39:30 AM »
I mean, this winter canít be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.
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Offline BRUCE

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2019, 07:49:32 AM »
I mean, this winter canít be any worse than last years...so that is already a positive.
not quite so sure on that.... lol
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Charles L.

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2019, 08:50:23 AM »
not quite so sure on that.... lol

I didnít even see an inch of snow total. Only noticeable event was the 1/4Ē ice accretion we received on Dec 9th
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Offline StormNine

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2019, 09:00:25 AM »
2018-19 was only better than 2011-12 because at least it wasn't 76F in Rapid City, SD in 2018-19.  Even here in Western KY it was kinda blah last winter until you got closer to the Ohio River where snowfall was closer to average.

Other than that with a likely Neutral ENSO for 2019-20 the possibilities are pretty endless.  A Neutral ENSO only means that the ENSO will not play a role in the winter. Which means that other factors like PNA, MJO, etc. will be an even greater role than normal.   

I think the QBO may be the index to really watch this winter.  If it still is raging positive then you have to contend with another fast-moving/active jet stream that will make it harder for cold air to settle in place and also produce a setup that can feature even more flooding as storms attack nearly relentlessly. 

After the QBO it is all about either MJO (which I found out last winter sometimes is connected to our pattern and sometimes is not).  Last year when the MJO was favorable (Phase 8) it wasn't connected to our pattern but it certainly was connected when it was in crappy Phase 5 and 6 (funny how that works).  Then it is the PNA which went hard negative in February and caused Montana to have a Fab Feb instead of us.   



Post Merge: August 03, 2019, 09:09:37 AM
I would actually lean towards a pretty warm Canada/USA as a whole this upcoming winter.  El Nino's tend to scour out the cold air and the Northern Plains has had 3 straight winters of below-average which in a warming world is kinda odd. 

I think this is the winter where North Dakota and Montana get quite warm.  That means that our area unless we have a solid -NAO will probably be mild as well but if the core of the riding is to our northwest then we could sneak in some ULL's or even a Miller A bomb.  I would like to see the Atlantic Ocean cool a bit so that we can temper the SE Ridge at times.   

My gut at this time is like +1 to +3 winter for us but a +5 for North Dakota with no significant below average regions in much of the US or Canada.  With below average to average snowfall for our region.  A lot of the areas that did well last winter I think will take a big step back this winter in snowfall.     
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 09:09:37 AM by StormNine, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2019, 09:54:31 AM »
 Well I am getting where I donít like cold anymore.  I love snow but seems all we get here is cold and dry or cold rain.  So a mild in the 50ís winter let it be or letís just keep fall like wx thru winter.

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2019, 10:43:34 AM »
Here's my forecast: Another bust.

Really going out on a limb with that forecast.  ;)

But for real, the past few winters have been so demoralizing. Bust after bust after bust.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2019, 10:48:17 AM »
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...

Offline Curt

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2019, 10:52:39 AM »
The anomalous warm pool - if it stays- in the NE PAC has huge implications for the short term indices  that drive cold air south like EPO and PNA.  Those wonít be evident until we get there. Itís definitely something to keep an eye on. Right now all we have a the big players and itís early. Looking at those I donít see any reason to proclaim warmth for all. In fact, the scales might be tipped in the other direction. As always, thereís a caveat like last winter- which behaved exactly like the winter of 52-53 where it should have been cold. But until we get closer to fall, let doom and gloom and bitterness from winterís past prevail.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #12 on: August 03, 2019, 01:32:40 PM »
come christmas time... see se ridge develop... look for big svr. Outbreak.... word on street. Is that... jan feb more tornados plus svr potential... see big trough & se ridge develop... on feb 8 2020...


I predict another bust! 

Just messing with you Bruce!

One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!!  Bet on it!
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 01:36:21 PM by Matthew »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #13 on: August 03, 2019, 03:55:06 PM »

I predict another bust! 

Just messing with you Bruce!

One thing I predict will happen more than once is I44 Will get its big snows and we will get cold rain!!  Bet on it!

seen that happen... already we can see se ridge setup.... i44 get the winter wx. While se torches... expect lots of severe wx... in our area

Offline Matthew

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Re: Winter 2019-2020
« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2019, 06:30:52 PM »
In all  honesty I believe we have really no indication what this winter will be.  Snowy, cold or stormy, warm.  Wx is not predictable.  Every year we think we have it figured out then some other teleconnections will appear.  Last year it was the MJO.  Year before EPO.  Year before that PNA.  Nature and environment are a puzzle that will not be solved.  I wake up and what happens is going to happen. 

 

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