* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement


Author Topic: Hurricane Barry  (Read 4848 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline mamMATTus

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,103
  • Location: Nashville
  • Stormwater Inspector
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2019, 06:56:04 PM »
I just saw the 4Warn in house model and it brings Barry right through Middle TN over the weekend. This is the exact opposite of what I wanted.

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 691
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #16 on: July 10, 2019, 06:58:32 PM »
They've got hurricane watches up for most of the Louisiana coast now.   News I was seeing during the day is seriously discussing the Mississippi topping 20 feet in New Orleans,  which would top the levees.   People are justifiably concerned about this one.

Offline WXHD

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,316
  • Location: Nashville, 37221 Bellevue
  • NWS Storm Spotter. Fan of Extreme Weather.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 445
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #17 on: July 10, 2019, 08:39:29 PM »
Were down here on Dauphin island. Seas have gotten rough, wind is constant. Its kinda nice watching the change.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 691
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2019, 05:01:15 AM »
Latest briefing from NHC:

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 110845
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
SOON...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,274
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1777
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2019, 05:45:07 AM »
Meg already starting mention 5 to 6 inches rain for parts west Tennessee .. if models continue to hold
Come on severe wx season...

Offline cgauxknox

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 691
  • Location: Knoxville
  • KM4UMK
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2019, 06:00:45 AM »
Meg already starting mention 5 to 6 inches rain for parts west Tennessee .. if models continue to hold
That certainly won't help the Mississippi flooding and could make the New Orleans event a long-lasting one.  I'm really getting concerned about just how much is going to pour into that watershed in the next week.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,327
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2019, 06:57:37 AM »
Meg already starting mention 5 to 6 inches rain for parts west Tennessee .. if models continue to hold
Something is happening. The GFS jumped to almost 7" for here. It had been showing under 2".
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,403
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2267
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2019, 09:50:48 AM »
The HWRF has this look for Sunday afternoon.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 7,274
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1777
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #23 on: July 11, 2019, 10:29:54 AM »
The HWRF has this look for Sunday afternoon.

(Attachment Link)
interesting ... also depending were the center of the left over from Barry... anyone one the right hand side can see some severe threat... including some quick spin ups in the heavier bands ...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline gcbama

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 389
  • Location: Lewis County Tn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2019, 10:33:57 AM »
I just saw the 4Warn in house model and it brings Barry right through Middle TN over the weekend. This is the exact opposite of what I wanted.

very confused with that, since the forecast track has the center off the coast of Louisiana on sat morning?

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,277
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 123
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #25 on: July 11, 2019, 10:34:52 AM »
interesting ... also depending were the center of the left over from Barry... anyone one the right hand side can see some severe threat... including some quick spin ups in the heavier bands ...

Thus far it looks like Memphis is going to be in the 'perfect' spot for mini supercell activity.  Aside from the obvious coastal impacts, it maybe a busy weekend for JAN, MEG, and maybe BNA with flooding and tornado warnings.

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,327
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 131
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #26 on: July 11, 2019, 10:51:20 AM »
The HWRF has this look for Sunday afternoon.

(Attachment Link)
If the GFS has a similar track, I can see the reason for the big uptick in qpf. That track puts middle and east TN on the "dirty" side of the storm with a very strong moisture fetch from the gulf.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015:
2/18 - 0.25" snow
2/20 - 1.5" snow, 0.15" ZR
2/24 - 0.5" snow
2/25 - 8" snow :)

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 11,272
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #27 on: July 11, 2019, 01:50:50 PM »
This is a fascinating scenario with the complex that came through last weekend going into the Gulf and then coming back up as a TC to the same area.

It's like the little guy that went off to college (the Gulf) and will now come back home (to Tennessee) and raise havoc as a big shot.

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,277
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 123
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2019, 02:00:19 PM »
This is a fascinating scenario with the complex that came through last weekend going into the Gulf and then coming back up as a TC to the same area.

It's like the little guy that went off to college (the Gulf) and will now come back home (to Tennessee) and raise havoc as a big shot.

Was it a MCS coming off  continent?  We may need to dig up a full satellite loop of that.  Home grown systems can be fascinating.

Post Merge: July 11, 2019, 02:01:30 PM
This thread is pinned until further notice.

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,403
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2267
Re: Hurricane Barry
« Reply #29 on: July 11, 2019, 02:05:04 PM »
Trying to get updates, but is Twitter down for anyone else?
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

 

* Recent Posts

Winter 2019-2020
by Curt
[Today at 04:48:26 PM]
Dec 10-11th Snow Event
by Coach B
[December 12, 2019, 10:54:35 AM]

Advertisement